CFB Zeitgeist Score
26
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by interceptions at the 74th percentile.
Kirk Francis
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
493 PASS YDS · 3 PASS TD · 1 RUSH YDS
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Texas Tech
2025Tulsa
2026Texas Tech
QB · TULSA · AMERICAN ATHLETIC
Kirk Francis
- 2
- #11
- 6-1 | 200 lb
- Tulsa, OK
Heisman Heat
#825
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2023–2025-49%
Sharp dropoff (-49%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
Tulsa
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Tulsa -> Texas Tech | 3-star | 0.8300 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Kirk Francis
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=2
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Kirk Francis
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 3g
493Pass yards
3Pass TDs
4INT
Per game
164.3Pass yards
1Pass TDs
1INT
Projected (13g)
2,136Pass yards
13Pass TDs
17INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 493): needs 250.7/game over remaining 10.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 493): needs 350.7/game over remaining 10.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 3): needs 2.2/game over remaining 10.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 3): needs 2.7/game over remaining 10.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 3): needs 3.2/game over remaining 10.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Kirk Francis's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Tulsa, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Pocket-leaning against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
53 56th
ATT
88 58th
CMP%
60.2% 47th
Y/A
5.6 25th
Passing Production
YDS
493 53rd
TD
3 57th
INT
4 36th
Rushing
CAR
9 35th
YDS
1 19th
YPC
0.1 18th
TD
0 44th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 35-7vs Abilene Christian | 20/31 | 218 | 2 | 0 | 7.0 | 53.6 | Season-high 218 yds |
| Wk 2 | L 14-21@ New Mexico State | 13/23 | 100 | 0 | 1 | 4.3 | 16.2 | |
| Wk 6 | L 7-45@ Memphis | 20/34 | 175 | 1 | 3 | 5.1 | 44.9 | 3 INTs — rough day |
| Total | 53/88 | 493 | 3 | 4 | 5.5 | 38.2 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Tulsa4-8HC: Kevin Wilson · Run-heavy
2024Tulsa3-9HC: Kevin Wilson · Balanced
2025Tulsa4-8HC: Tre Lamb · Run-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 493 | #179/382 | 53rd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 3 | #178/407 | 57th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 53 | #170/383 | 56th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 60.2% | #205/383 | 47th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 5.6 | #289/382 | 25th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 1 | #330/408 | 19th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.22 | #130/200 | 36th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 52 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 38.9% | #147/428 | 66th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 88 | #172/407 | 58th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 4 | #263/407 | 36th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 9 | #267/408 | 35th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 6 | #345/391 | 12th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 0.1 | #333/407 | 18th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #230/408 | 44th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 75.4% | #131/428 | 70th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 49.4% | #152/428 | 65th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 43.4% | #123/428 | 71st pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 41.8% | #175/428 | 59th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 35.0% | #135/428 | 69th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 33.7% | #144/428 | 67th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 4.9% | #279/428 | 35th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/258 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home1g | 218 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 |
| Road2g | 138 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins1g | 218 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 |
| Losses2g | 138 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 164 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 1.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
26Below cohort
Elite: fumbles lost (91st). Concern: pass yards (3rd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds59%of completions
26 comp5.5 yds avg
Middle
10–19 yds23%of completions
10 comp12.5 yds avg1 TD
Deep
20+ yds18%of completions
8 comp25.8 yds avg2 TD
Overall 51.2% completion on 86 attempts · 8 deep completions averaging 25.8 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Concerns: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.22Below (<p25) (n=94)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Kirk FrancisTulsaNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 67% simDrake LindseyMinnesota· 63% simJalen KitnaUAB· 57% sim
Fumbles lost
Interceptions
Completion %
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Yards / att
Pass TDs
Pass yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jake Lange’s 2021 season.
Jake Lange
72%match
#2
Cade McNamara
70%
#3
Davis Warren
69%
#4
Zion Turner
66%
#5
Adam Damante
66%
Matches Jake on
Height
Completion %
Differs from Jake on
Rush usage (lower)
Weight (higher)
EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Ross Bowers’s path through Northern Illinois.
Ross Bowers
97%match
#2
MJ Morris
95%
#3
DJ Williams
91%
#4
Chubba Purdy
91%
#5
Stone Earle
84%
Matches Ross on
Completion %
Yards per attempt
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Davis Warren's junior season at Michigan (2024).
Davis Warren
56%match
#2
Rickie Collins
56%
#3
Malachi Nelson
54%
#4
Jack Lausch
47%
#5
E.J. Warner
47%
Matches Davis on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Yards / attempt
Height
Differs from Davis on
Class year (lower)
Completion % (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Tre Lamb
Pass share
45.9%
407 pass / 480 run
Plays / game
73.9
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.2%
357 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
2 coaches2023
Kevin Wilson
Tulsa
2024
Kevin Wilson
Tulsa
2025era →
Tre Lamb
Tulsa
Coaching transition mid-career: Kevin Wilson → Tre Lamb. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownTulsa, OK
Height6'1"
Weight200 lb
Class2
PositionQB
Jersey11
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamTulsa
ConferenceAmerican Athletic
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.