cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Khalifa Keith /App State

Khalifa Keith

RB · App State · So · #18

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

8 RUSH YDS · 0 RUSH TD · 3 CARRIES

2026 TRANSFERTransferred App State → Alabama for 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to Alabama

2025App State
2026Alabama

RB · APP STATE · SUN BELT

Khalifa Keith

  • 2
  • #18
  • 6-1 | 235 lb
  • Birmingham, AL

CFB Zeitgeist Score

1

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by rush tds at the 3rd percentile.

Heisman Heat

#612

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R04 · Rotational

Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · rushing yards

2023–2025
21.02023
1002024
8.02025

-62%

Sharp dropoff (-62%) — career inflection point.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#613 national
CFB
College
2 teams
2023–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB
Class2
Jersey18
Measurements6-1 | 235 lb
HometownBirmingham, AL
Primary teamApp State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 613 recruit
Composite rating 0.8794 HighSchool
Signed with -- 2023
Origin Parker Birmingham, AL, USA
Class Profile Context
2023 3-star | 0.8794 No. 613 recruit | HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 2 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Alabama 2026
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 31, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 App State -> Alabama 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate
2025 Tennessee -> App State 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#612Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#477Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to —

Composite

0.8794

#613 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Khalifa Keith

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

50

Mixed Sentiment

Sample 1 mentions
Confidence BELOW-FLOOR

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmOwn fans: 1 mentions · belief +0 · "Appalachian State transfer, former Tennessee RB Khalifa Keith commits to Alabama"Own fansNational: 2 mentions · belief +0 · "The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found [here]( https://www.r"National
  • Own fans · n=1
  • National · n=2

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Khalifa Keith

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the rushing totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 2g
8Rush yards
3Carries
0Rush TDs
Per game
4Rush yards
2Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
52Rush yards
20Carries
0Rush TDs

To hit 750-yard season (currently 8): needs 67.5/game over remaining 11.

To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 8): needs 90.2/game over remaining 11.

To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 8): needs 135.6/game over remaining 11.

To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 0.9/game over remaining 11.

To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 1.4/game over remaining 11.

To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 1.8/game over remaining 11.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Khalifa Keith's story is about how role and output meet each other. For App State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #612 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 2.1% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Transfer path 2 portal moves

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Scrimmage yards 8 8 rush | -- rec | #668/735 (9th pct)
Rush TD 0 3 carries | #447/739 (40th pct)
Yards/carry 2.7 Per-rush efficiency | #658/735 (11th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Rushing

CAR
3 14th
YDS
8 9th
YPC
2.7 11th
TD
0 40th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 2 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCARYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 2W 20-13vs Lindenwood133.003
Wk 7W 41-20@ Georgia State252.504Season-high 5 yds
Total382.804
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023Tennessee9-4HC: Josh Heupel · Run-leaning
2024Tennessee10-3HC: Josh Heupel · Run-heavy, fast tempo
2025App State5-8HC: Dowell Loggains · Pass-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025App State382.70--
2024Tennessee211004.81--
2023Tennessee10212.10--
Career3 loaded seasons341293.81--
SeasonTeam
2025App State----------
2024Tennessee188.00--
2023Tennessee----------
Career3 loaded seasons188.00--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work -- -- rec yds
Usage 2.1% 4.5% rush share | #683/738 (8th pct)
Rushing WEPA -- Adjusted value feed still loading
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Rushing Rushing yards 8 #668/735 9th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rush TD 0 #447/739 40th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing Yards / carry 2.7 #658/735 11th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Usage Role share 2.1% #683/738 8th pct Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing Rushing LONG 4 #679/733 8th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Rushing Carries 3 #640/739 14th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Usage 2nd-down usage 4.5% #576/738 22nd pct Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Rush share 4.5% #649/738 12th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage Passing-down usage 2.3% #603/738 18th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage Standard-down usage 2.1% #682/738 8th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage 1st-down usage 1.5% #698/738 6th pct Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage 3rd-down usage 0.0% #622/738 16th pct Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Pass share 0.0% #564/738 24th pct Air-game usagevs FBS RB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 2 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Home1g3.03.00.0
Road1g5.02.50.0

Win vs Loss

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Wins2g4.02.80.0

First half vs Second half

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Weeks 1-72g4.02.80.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

1Below cohort
5 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: carries (0th).

Rush TDs#326 / 349 · 3rd pct
0rush
Yards / carry#349 / 349 · 0th pct
2.7rush
Rush yards#350 / 349 · 0th pct
8rush
Long run#350 / 349 · 0th pct
4rush
Carries#350 / 349 · 0th pct
3rush

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · RB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 5 metrics
Khalifa KeithApp StateTae MeadowsTroy· 35% simAl-Jay HendersonBuffalo· 35% simRashod DubinionApp State· 35% sim
Rush TDs
3
Keith
72
Meadows
72
Henderson
50
Dubinion
Yards / carry
0
Keith
29
Meadows
18
Henderson
53
Dubinion
Rush yards
0
Keith
74
Meadows
79
Henderson
84
Dubinion
Long run
0
Keith
53
Meadows
43
Henderson
39
Dubinion
Carries
0
Keith
84
Meadows
90
Henderson
87
Dubinion

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Dowell Loggains

Pass share

55.6%

508 pass / 405 run

Plays / game

70.2

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

6.7%

389 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Pass-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

2 coaches
2023
Shawn Clark
App State
2024
Shawn Clark
App State
2025
Dowell Loggains
App State
era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Shawn Clark → Dowell Loggains. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownBirmingham, AL
Height6'1"
Weight235 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey18

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Tennessee RB2 #612 #477 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | SEC
2023 Tennessee RB2 #2104 #1855 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | SEC

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 App State Sun Belt RB 2 No. 18 | 6-1 | 235 lb | Birmingham, AL
2024 Tennessee SEC RB 2 No. 18 | 6-1 | 235 lb | Birmingham, AL
2023 Tennessee SEC RB 2 No. 18 | 6-1 | 235 lb | Birmingham, AL