cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Kelby Williams /Western Kentucky

Kelby Williams

WR · Western Kentucky · Sr · #13

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

165 REC YDS · 11 REC · 0 REC TD

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Western Kentucky for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Western Kentucky for 2026

Updated May 27

2026 Depth chart

Returning starter

Wide receiver · Western Kentucky

Returning around him

  • 33% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
  • Transfer portal: -3 net (19 in / 22 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Western Kentucky · Last season: 9-4 · Talent rank #100 · 2026 recruiting class #96

WR · WESTERN KENTUCKY · CONFERENCE USA

Kelby Williams

  • 4
  • #13
  • 6-3 | 195 lb
  • Houston, TX

CFB Zeitgeist Score

25

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / catch at the 76th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#4611

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP WR AWARD

Biletnikoff

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R04 · Rotational

Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · receiving yards

2023–2025
4512023
1652025

-63%

Sharp dropoff (-63%) — career inflection point.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
No recruit profile
CFB
College
2 teams
2023–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds

#21 in market ▼ from #18 · 6 books

+35002.8% implied▼ lengthened from +3000

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionWR
Class4
Jersey13
Measurements6-3 | 195 lb
HometownHouston, TX
Primary teamWestern Kentucky

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree Not on file No matched recruiting profile in the loaded archive
Composite rating -- Composite rating unavailable for this player
Signed with -- Commitment history unavailable
Origin -- Hometown and high school unavailable
Class Profile Context
No recruiting profile is on file for this player.

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Western Kentucky 2025
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 11, 2025
Season Move Context
2025 Old Dominion -> Western Kentucky 3-star | 0.8400 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#4611Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#4964Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Kelby Williams

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Kelby Williams

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the receiving totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 5g
165Rec yards
11Receptions
0Rec TDs
Per game
33Rec yards
2Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
429Rec yards
29Receptions
0Rec TDs

To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 165): needs 66.9/game over remaining 8.

To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 165): needs 104.4/game over remaining 8.

To hit 60-catch season (currently 11): needs 6.1/game over remaining 8.

To hit 80-catch season (currently 11): needs 8.6/game over remaining 8.

To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 1/game over remaining 8.

To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 1.2/game over remaining 8.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Kelby Williams's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Western Kentucky, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #4611 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 4.7% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Transfer path 1 portal move

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

WR season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Receptions 11 0 rec TD | #559/1110 (50th pct)
Receiving yards 165 15.0 per catch | #517/1107 (53rd pct)
Scrimmage yards 165 Total offensive yardage | #517/1107 (53rd pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Receiving

REC
11 50th
YDS
165 53rd
YPR
15.0 76th
TD
0 45th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 5 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppRECYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1W 41-24vs Sam Houston3258.3014Season-high 49 yds
Wk 1W 55-6vs North Alabama44912.3025Season-high 49 yds
Wk 8L 6-25vs Florida International24020.0020
Wk 9W 28-27@ Louisiana Tech166.006
Wk 12W 42-26vs Middle Tennessee14545.0045
Total1116518.3045
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023Old Dominion6-7HC: Ricky Rahne · Run-leaning
2025Western Kentucky9-4HC: Tyson Helton · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Western Kentucky1116515.00--
2023Old Dominion2645117.32--
Career2 loaded seasons3761616.62--
SeasonTeam
2025Western Kentucky----------
2023Old Dominion1--------
Career2 loaded seasons1--------
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Pass share

The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.

Role share

A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Usage 4.7% 8.1% pass-game share | #602/1137 (47th pct)
Return yards 0 0 return TD
Touchdowns 0 Across offense and returns | #615/1111 (45th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Receiving Receptions 11 #559/1110 50th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving yards 165 #517/1107 53rd pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving TD 0 #615/1111 45th pct Scoringvs FBS WR
Receiving Yards / catch 15.0 #261/1106 76th pct Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Usage Pass share 8.1% #602/1137 47th pct Air-game usagevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving LONG 45 #344/1105 69th pct Metricvs FBS WR
Usage 1st-down usage 5.7% #351/1137 69th pct Early-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage 3rd-down usage 5.4% #605/1137 47th pct Money-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Standard-down usage 5.2% #369/1137 68th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS WR
Usage Role share 4.7% #519/1137 54th pct Share of team offensevs FBS WR
Usage Passing-down usage 3.4% #873/1137 23rd pct Known-passing sharevs FBS WR
Usage 2nd-down usage 3.0% #805/1137 29th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Rush share 0.0% #391/1137 66th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS WR

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 5 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Home4g2.539.821.40.0
Road1g1.06.06.00.0

Win vs Loss

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Wins4g2.231.217.90.0
Losses1g2.040.020.00.0

First half vs Second half

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Weeks 1-72g3.537.010.30.0
Weeks 8+3g1.330.323.70.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort

25Below cohort
5 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: receptions (0th).

Yards / catch#133 / 558 · 76th pct
15.0rece
Long catch#300 / 558 · 45th pct
45rece
Rec yards#506 / 558 · 9th pct
165rece
Rec TDs#482 / 558 · 7th pct
0rece
Receptions#559 / 558 · 0th pct
11rece

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · WR · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 5 metrics
Kelby WilliamsWestern KentuckyJacquon GibsonMassachusetts· 43% simKevin Coleman Jr.Missouri· 42% simMichael Jackson IIIPurdue· 40% sim
Yards / catch
76
Williams
15
Gibson
28
Jr.
9
III
Long catch
45
Williams
56
Gibson
56
Jr.
16
III
Rec yards
9
Williams
74
Gibson
84
Jr.
70
III
Rec TDs
7
Williams
7
Gibson
24
Jr.
24
III
Receptions
0
Williams
92
Gibson
94
Jr.
92
III

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Tyson Helton

Pass share

54.9%

492 pass / 404 run

Plays / game

68.9

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

5.5%

366 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

1 coach
2023
Tyson Helton
Western Kentucky
2025
Tyson Helton
Western Kentucky

Played his entire career under Tyson Helton.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownHouston, TX
Height6'3"
Weight195 lb
Class4
PositionWR
Jersey13

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Old Dominion WR4 #4611 #4964 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Sun Belt
2023 Old Dominion WR4 #1339 #1769 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Sun Belt

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Western Kentucky Conference USA WR 4 No. 13 | 6-3 | 195 lb | Houston, TX
2024 Old Dominion Sun Belt WR 4 No. 13 | 6-3 | 195 lb | Houston, TX
2023 Old Dominion Sun Belt WR 4 No. 13 | 6-3 | 195 lb | Houston, TX