cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Kelan Robinson /East Carolina

Kelan Robinson

WR · East Carolina · Sr · #3

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

7 REC YDS · 1 REC · 0 REC TD

2026 RETURNINGReturning to East Carolina for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to East Carolina for 2026

Updated May 27

2026 Depth chart

Returning starter

Wide receiver · East Carolina

Returning around him

  • 51% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
  • 1 East Carolina player drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: -3 net (23 in / 26 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

East Carolina · Last season: 9-4 · Talent rank #78 · 2026 recruiting class #77

WR · EAST CAROLINA · AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Kelan Robinson

  • 4
  • #3
  • 6-3 | 210 lb
  • Grand Prairie, TX

CFB Zeitgeist Score

2

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by rec tds at the 7th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#4034

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP WR AWARD

Biletnikoff

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R03 · Backup

Backup. On the two-deep, pushing for snaps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · receiving yards

2023–2025
4.02023
7.02025

+75%

Up 75% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#1344 national
CFB
College
2 teams
2022–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionWR
Class4
Jersey3
Measurements6-3 | 210 lb
HometownGrand Prairie, TX
Primary teamEast Carolina

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 1344 recruit
Composite rating 0.8444 HighSchool
Signed with Kansas 2021
Origin South Grand Prairie Grand Prairie, TX, USA
Class Profile Context
2021 3-star | 0.8444 No. 1344 recruit | HighSchool | Kansas

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination East Carolina 2023
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Apr 15, 2023
Season Move Context
2023 Kansas -> East Carolina 3-star | 0.8400 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#4034Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#3933Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Kansas

Composite

0.8444

#1344 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Kelan Robinson

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

100

Grounded Optimism

Sample 1 mentions
Confidence BELOW-FLOOR

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmOwn fans: 1 mentions · belief +100 · "Keelon Russell emerges as a potential game-changer for the Alabama Crimson Tide,"Own fans
  • Own fans · n=1

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Kelan Robinson

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the receiving totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 3g
7Rec yards
1Receptions
0Rec TDs
Per game
2.3Rec yards
0Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
30.3Rec yards
4Receptions
0Rec TDs

To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 7): needs 69.3/game over remaining 10.

To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 7): needs 99.3/game over remaining 10.

To hit 60-catch season (currently 1): needs 5.9/game over remaining 10.

To hit 80-catch season (currently 1): needs 7.9/game over remaining 10.

To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 0.8/game over remaining 10.

To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 1/game over remaining 10.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Kelan Robinson's story is about how role and output meet each other. For East Carolina, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #4034 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 1.2% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Transfer path 1 portal move

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

WR season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Receptions 1 0 rec TD | #973/1110 (12th pct)
Receiving yards 7 7.0 per catch | #1032/1107 (7th pct)
Scrimmage yards 7 Total offensive yardage | #1032/1107 (7th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Receiving

REC
1 12th
YDS
7 7th
YPR
7.0 13th
TD
0 45th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 3 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppRECYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 2W 56-3vs Campbell177.007Season-high 7 yds
Wk 13L 24-58@ UTSA
Wk 14W 42-3@ Florida Atlantic
Total177.007
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Kansas6-7HC: Lance Leipold · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2023East Carolina2-10HC: Mike Houston · Balanced
2025East Carolina9-4HC: Blake Harrell · Run-leaning, fast tempo
SeasonTeam
2025East Carolina177.00--
2023East Carolina144.00--
2022Kansas----------
Career3 loaded seasons2115.50--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Pass share

The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.

Role share

A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Usage 1.2% 2.7% pass-game share | #1051/1137 (8th pct)
Return yards 0 0 return TD
Touchdowns 0 Across offense and returns | #615/1111 (45th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Receiving Receptions 1 #973/1110 12th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving yards 7 #1032/1107 7th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving TD 0 #615/1111 45th pct Scoringvs FBS WR
Receiving Yards / catch 7.0 #958/1106 13th pct Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Usage Pass share 2.7% #1051/1137 8th pct Air-game usagevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving LONG 7 #1020/1105 8th pct Metricvs FBS WR
Usage 2nd-down usage 3.3% #751/1137 34th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Passing-down usage 2.5% #942/1137 17th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS WR
Usage Role share 1.2% #1119/1137 2nd pct Share of team offensevs FBS WR
Usage Standard-down usage 0.8% #1063/1137 7th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS WR
Usage 1st-down usage 0.0% #1017/1137 11th pct Early-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage 3rd-down usage 0.0% #937/1137 18th pct Money-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Rush share 0.0% #391/1137 66th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS WR

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 3 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Home1g1.07.07.00.0
Road2g

Win vs Loss

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Wins2g0.53.57.00.0
Losses1g

First half vs Second half

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Weeks 1-71g1.07.07.00.0
Weeks 8+2g

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort

2Below cohort
5 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: long catch (0th).

Rec TDs#482 / 558 · 7th pct
0rece
Yards / catch#550 / 558 · 2nd pct
7.0rece
Rec yards#559 / 558 · 0th pct
7rece
Receptions#559 / 558 · 0th pct
1rece
Long catch#559 / 558 · 0th pct
7rece

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · WR · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 5 metrics
Kelan RobinsonEast CarolinaMichael Jackson IIIPurdue· 47% simJacquon GibsonMassachusetts· 41% simAaron TurnerRice· 39% sim
Rec TDs
7
Robinson
24
III
7
Gibson
68
Turner
Yards / catch
2
Robinson
9
III
15
Gibson
1
Turner
Rec yards
0
Robinson
70
III
74
Gibson
48
Turner
Receptions
0
Robinson
92
III
92
Gibson
92
Turner
Long catch
0
Robinson
16
III
56
Gibson
65
Turner

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Blake Harrell

Pass share

44.5%

440 pass / 548 run

Plays / game

76.0

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

4.7%

343 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning, fast tempo.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

2 coaches
2022
Mike Houston
East Carolina
2023
Mike Houston
East Carolina
2025
Blake Harrell
East Carolina
era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Mike Houston → Blake Harrell. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownGrand Prairie, TX
Height6'3"
Weight210 lb
Class4
PositionWR
Jersey3

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 East Carolina WR4 #4034 #3933 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | American Athletic
2023 East Carolina WR4 #5135 #5573 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | American Athletic
2022 Kansas WR4 #3604 #3565 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Big 12
2021 Kansas WR4 #4539 #5027 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Big 12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 East Carolina American Athletic WR 4 No. 3 | 6-3 | 210 lb | Grand Prairie, TX
2024 East Carolina American Athletic WR 4 No. 3 | 6-3 | 210 lb | Grand Prairie, TX
2023 East Carolina American Athletic WR 4 No. 3 | 6-3 | 210 lb | Grand Prairie, TX
2022 Kansas Big 12 WR 4 No. 3 | 6-3 | 210 lb | Grand Prairie, TX
2021 Kansas Big 12 WR 4 No. 3 | 6-3 | 210 lb | Grand Prairie, TX