cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Keelon Russell /Alabama

Keelon Russell

QB · Alabama · Fr · #12

On Trialas of 2026-06-22

Keelon Russell is on trial in Alabama's fan jury — the eye test against the résumé.

143PASS YDS2PASS TD17RUSH YDS

5★ · NATIONAL RECRUIT

No.2

recruiting national rank

Alabama fans can't agree whether the tape backs the reputation.

low confidence1 source

Minority viewA vocal minority sees it the other way.

Read the story so far

Keelon Russell arrived as a 5-star prospect, the No.2 recruit nationally. He lines up at QB for Alabama.

On the field, the headline is 143 pass yds, with 2 pass td.

Alabama fans can't agree whether the tape backs the reputation.

The number to watch: No.2 — 5★ · national recruit.

Why nowHis 2026 case is being argued before a snap is played.
  • season totals
  • recruiting national rank
  • compiled from tagged fan discourse

AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Alabama for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Alabama for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Quarterback · Alabama

Returning around him

  • 43% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
  • 10 Alabama players drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: -7 net (17 in / 24 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Alabama · Last season: 11-4 (AP #11) · Talent rank #2 · 2026 recruiting class #3

QB · ALABAMA · SEC

Keelon Russell

  • 1
  • #12
  • 6-3 | 194 lb
  • Duncanville, TX

CFB Zeitgeist Score

55

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by yards / att at the 99th percentile.

Heisman Heat

Awaiting

Not on the live Heisman board this week.

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

TOP QB AWARD

Davey O'Brien

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
In Their Words 153 windows · 2025 fan posts
keelon×270.8feet×101.5upside×101.5mack×50.8better×14.2start×12.7

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★★★
#2 national
CFB
College
Alabama
2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds

#14 in market ▲ from #30 · 6 books

+27003.6% implied▲ tightened from +4000

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionQB
Class1
Jersey12
Measurements6-3 | 194 lb
HometownDuncanville, TX
Primary teamAlabama

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 5-star No. 2 recruit
Composite rating 0.9997 HighSchool
Signed with Alabama 2025
Origin Duncanville Duncanville, TX, USA
Class Profile Context
2025 5-star | 0.9997 No. 2 recruit | HighSchool | Alabama

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens

Where the model places this player relative to the rest of the Heisman field.

Current nowcast--Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast--Where the full season sim points
Win probability--Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability--Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability--Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

NIL Valuation · On3

$1.09M

On3 ranking · Jun 2026

Whisper Rate

$2.00M

per-deal market estimate

Recruit stars

★★★★★

to Alabama

Composite

0.9997

#2 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Keelon Russell

Fan sentiment · Season 2025 conversation window

Belief Meter

61

Quietly Bullish

Sample 63 mentions
Confidence HIGH

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmOwn fans: 72 mentions · belief +44 · "Like I said. I love how this schedule falls in place. Alabama has a few weeks to"Own fansNational: 7 mentions · belief +47 · "bama did get the second highest recruiting class of 2026 and they seem to be rel"National
  • Own fans · n=72
  • National · n=7

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Keelon Russell

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the passing totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 2g
143Pass yards
2Pass TDs
0INT
Per game
71.5Pass yards
1Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
929.5Pass yards
13Pass TDs
0INT

To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 143): needs 259.7/game over remaining 11.

To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 143): needs 350.6/game over remaining 11.

To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 2): needs 2.1/game over remaining 11.

To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 2): needs 2.5/game over remaining 11.

To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 2): needs 3/game over remaining 11.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Keelon Russell's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Alabama, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place -- -- win | -- finalist
Role load 12.1% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 2 recruit

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

QB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Pass yards 143 2 TD | 0 INT | #245/382 (36th pct)
Completion rate 73.3% 11/15 completions | #46/383 (88th pct)
Yards/attempt 9.5 Explosiveness through the air | #38/382 (90th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Highly efficient | Vertical threat | Pocket-leaning against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.

Highly efficientVertical threatPocket-leaning

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Passing Efficiency

CMP
11 33rd
ATT
15 33rd
CMP%
73.3% 88th
Y/A
9.5 90th

Passing Production

YDS
143 36th
TD
2 52nd
INT
0 100th

Rushing

CAR
3 20th
YDS
17 38th
YPC
5.7 82nd
TD
0 44th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 2 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCMP/ATTYDSTDINTYPAQBRNote
Wk 2W 73-0vs UL Monroe4/6652010.894.8
Wk 13W 56-0vs Eastern Illinois7/978008.753.1Season-high 78 yds
Total11/15143209.874.0
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2025Alabama11-4HC: Kalen DeBoer · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Alabama111573.3%1439.520197.4----
Career1 loaded season111573.3%1439.520197.4----
SeasonTeam
2025Alabama3175.70--
Career1 loaded season3175.70--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Passing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.

Role share

How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Rush impact 17 0 rush TD | #255/408 (38th pct)
Usage 12.1% 24.2% pass share | 3.5% rush share | #254/428 (41st pct)
Passing WEPA -- Adjusted value feed still loading
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Passing Passing yards 143 #245/382 36th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Pass TD 2 #198/407 52nd pct Scoringvs FBS QB
Passing Completions 11 #257/383 33rd pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Completion % 73.3% #46/383 88th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Passing Yards / attempt 9.5 #38/382 90th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing Rushing yards 17 #255/408 38th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Usage Role share 12.1% #254/428 41st pct Share of team offensevs FBS QB
Passing Attempts 15 #275/407 33rd pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Interceptions 0 #1/407 100th pct Turnoversvs FBS QB
Rushing Rushing LONG 9 #311/391 21st pct Metricvs FBS QB
Rushing Yards / carry 5.7 #73/407 82nd pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing Carries 3 #327/408 20th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Rushing Rush TD 0 #230/408 44th pct Scoringvs FBS QB
Usage Pass share 24.2% #234/428 46th pct Air-game usagevs FBS QB
Usage Passing-down usage 21.4% #231/428 46th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS QB
Usage 3rd-down usage 17.4% #252/428 41st pct Money-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage 2nd-down usage 14.9% #239/428 44th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage Standard-down usage 9.9% #262/428 39th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS QB
Usage 1st-down usage 8.0% #274/428 36th pct Early-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage Rush share 3.5% #315/428 27th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS QB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 2 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

YDS/gTD/gYPAINT/g
Home2g71.51.09.80.0

Win vs Loss

YDS/gTD/gYPAINT/g
Wins2g71.51.09.80.0

First half vs Second half

YDS/gTD/gYPAINT/g
Weeks 1-71g65.02.010.80.0
Weeks 8+1g78.00.08.70.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

55Solid starter
7 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: completion % (99th). Strength: interceptions (99th). Concern: pass yards (0th).

Completion %#2 / 183 · 99th pct
73.3%pass
Interceptions#1 / 183 · 99th pct
0pass
Yards / att#3 / 183 · 99th pct
9.5pass
Rush yards#136 / 183 · 26th pct
17rush
Rush TDs#150 / 183 · 9th pct
0rush
Pass TDs#176 / 183 · 3rd pct
2pass
Pass yards#184 / 183 · 0th pct
143pass

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · QB · 2025

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Keelon RussellAlabamaCade KlubnikClemson· 52% simJalen KitnaUAB· 50% simJoe FagnanoUConn· 48% sim
Completion %
99
Russell
73
Klubnik
79
Kitna
92
Fagnano
Interceptions
99
Russell
56
Klubnik
10
Kitna
97
Fagnano
Yards / att
99
Russell
63
Klubnik
57
Kitna
87
Fagnano
Rush yards
26
Russell
42
Klubnik
8
Kitna
52
Fagnano
Rush TDs
9
Russell
59
Klubnik
9
Kitna
49
Fagnano
Pass TDs
3
Russell
64
Klubnik
55
Kitna
93
Fagnano
Pass yards
0
Russell
78
Klubnik
64
Kitna
90
Fagnano

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Kalen DeBoer

Pass share

53.4%

523 pass / 456 run

Plays / game

65.3

15 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

6.8%

384 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2025

1 coach
2025
Kalen DeBoer
Alabama

Played his entire career under Kalen DeBoer.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownDuncanville, TX
Height6'3"
Weight194 lb
Class1
PositionQB
Jersey12

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
This player hasn’t appeared on a Heisman ballot tracked by the model.

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Alabama SEC QB 1 No. 12 | 6-3 | 194 lb | Duncanville, TX