cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Kale Smith /Oklahoma State

Kale Smith

CB · Oklahoma State · Sr · #10

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

20 TACKLES · 0 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Oklahoma State for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Oklahoma State for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Cornerback · Oklahoma State

Returning around him

  • 44% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
  • Transfer portal: -10 net (55 in / 65 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Oklahoma State · Last season: 1-11 · Talent rank #49 · 2026 recruiting class #53

CB · OKLAHOMA STATE · BIG 12

Kale Smith

  • 4
  • #10
  • 5-11 | 180 lb
  • Oklahoma City, OK

CFB Zeitgeist Score

39

Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by passes defended at the 67th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#13170

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DB AWARD

Jim Thorpe

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R05 · Part-time starter

Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#1344 national
CFB
College
Oklahoma State
2022–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds

#8 in market ▼ from #6 · 4 books

+10009.1% implied

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionCB
Class4
Jersey10
Measurements5-11 | 180 lb
HometownOklahoma City, OK
Primary teamOklahoma State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 1344 recruit
Composite rating 0.8444 HighSchool
Signed with Oklahoma State 2021
Origin Midwest City Oklahoma City, OK, USA
Class Profile Context
2021 3-star | 0.8444 No. 1344 recruit | HighSchool | Oklahoma State

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#13170Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#13109Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Oklahoma State

Composite

0.8444

#1344 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Kale Smith

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Kale Smith

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 7g
20Tackles
1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
3Tackles
0.1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
37Tackles
1.9Tackles for loss
0Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 20): needs 10/game over remaining 6.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 20): needs 13.3/game over remaining 6.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 1/game over remaining 6.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 1.7/game over remaining 6.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Kale Smith is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Oklahoma State's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 1.0 tackles for loss, and 1 interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #13170 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Defensive rarity 14 return yds

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 20 13 solo | #1998/4942 (60th pct)
TFL 1.0 Backfield disruption | #2051/4972 (59th pct)
Sacks 0.0 Pass-rush finish | #1762/4972 (65th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Defensive contributor against FBS defenders.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
20 60th
SOLO
13 65th
TFL
1.0 59th
SACK
0.0 65th
QBH
1 44th

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
2 64th
INT
1 65th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 7 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 27-7vs UT Martin110.00.010
Wk 2L 3-69@ Oregon640.00.00Season-high 6 tackles
Wk 4L 12-19vs Tulsa531.00.00
Wk 5L 27-45vs Baylor420.00.01
Wk 6L 13-41@ Arizona330.00.00
Wk 7L 17-39vs Houston100.00.01
Wk 9L 0-42@ Texas Tech
Total20131.00.012
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Oklahoma State7-6HC: Mike Gundy · Balanced, fast tempo
2023Oklahoma State10-4HC: Mike Gundy · Pass-leaning
2025Oklahoma State1-11HC: Mike Gundy · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Oklahoma State20131.00.021--
2023Oklahoma State22111.00.01----
2022Oklahoma State210.00.0------
Career3 loaded seasons44252.00.031--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT 1 0 pick-six TD | #308/869 (65th pct)
Pass breakups 2 Coverage disruption | #792/2184 (64th pct)
QB pressures 1 Quarterback hurries | #1051/1878 (44th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 20 #1998/4942 60th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 1.0 #2051/4972 59th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 0.0 #1762/4972 65th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Interceptions 1 #308/869 65th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 2 #792/2184 64th pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense QB hurries 1 #1051/1878 44th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 13 #1622/4584 65th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense INT return avg 1.0 #543/578 6th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF
Defense INT return yards 1 #546/578 6th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 7 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home4g2.80.20.00.5
Road3g3.00.00.00.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins1g1.00.00.00.0
Losses6g3.20.20.00.3

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-76g3.30.20.00.3
Weeks 8+1g

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the CB cohort

39Mid-pack
7 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: sacks (23rd).

Passes defended#777 / 2975 · 67th pct
2defe
QB hurries#1007 / 2975 · 55th pct
1defe
Solo tackles#1622 / 2975 · 44th pct
13defe
Tackles#1998 / 2975 · 32nd pct
20defe
Interceptions#304 / 817 · 31st pct
1inte
Tackles for loss#1936 / 2975 · 28th pct
1.0defe
Sacks#1575 / 2975 · 24th pct
0.0defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · CB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Kale SmithOklahoma StateTyler MartinMassachusetts· 65% simBlake FletcherAir Force· 63% simRobert FitzgeraldNorthwestern· 60% sim
Passes defended
67
Smith
67
Martin
67
Fletcher
86
Fitzgerald
QB hurries
55
Smith
22
Martin
92
Fletcher
55
Fitzgerald
Solo tackles
44
Smith
87
Martin
91
Fletcher
100
Fitzgerald
Tackles
32
Smith
98
Martin
99
Fletcher
99
Fitzgerald
Interceptions
31
Smith
31
Martin
31
Fitzgerald
Tackles for loss
28
Smith
63
Martin
28
Fletcher
85
Fitzgerald
Sacks
24
Smith
24
Martin
24
Fletcher
24
Fitzgerald

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Cover Corner

Steady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play.

CB

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Rashad Ajayi’s 2022 season.

Rashad Ajayi

87%match

West Virginia · 2022

#2

BJ Sculark

New Mexico State · 2023

86%
#3

Marcus Clarke

Miami · 2021

86%
#4

Sam Westfall

Virginia · 2023

85%
#5

Tyreek Chappell

Texas A&M · 2025

82%

Matches Rashad on

PD rate
Weight
Height

Differs from Rashad on

Class year (higher)

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Demarko Williams's senior season at Western Kentucky (2025).

Demarko Williams

95%match

Western Kentucky · 2025

#2

Noah Pierre

Indiana · 2023

94%
#3

Lionell Whitaker

Coastal Carolina · 2025

94%
#4

Donte Thompson

UTEP · 2025

92%
#5

Prophet Brown

USC · 2024

90%

Matches Demarko on

Class year
Height
Tackle volume

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Mike Gundy

Pass share

47.5%

365 pass / 403 run

Plays / game

64.0

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

9.9%

223 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

1 coach
2022
Mike Gundy
Oklahoma State
2023
Mike Gundy
Oklahoma State
2025
Mike Gundy
Oklahoma State

Played his entire career under Mike Gundy.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownOklahoma City, OK
Height5'11"
Weight180 lb
Class4
PositionCB
Jersey10

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Oklahoma State CB4 #13170 #13109 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big 12
2023 Oklahoma State CB4 #11697 #11527 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Big 12
2022 Oklahoma State CB4 #11374 #11256 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Big 12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Oklahoma State Big 12 CB 4 No. 10 | 5-11 | 180 lb | Oklahoma City, OK
2024 Oklahoma State Big 12 CB 4 No. 10 | 5-11 | 180 lb | Oklahoma City, OK
2023 Oklahoma State Big 12 CB 4 No. 10 | 5-11 | 180 lb | Oklahoma City, OK
2022 Oklahoma State Big 12 CB 4 No. 10 | 5-11 | 180 lb | Oklahoma City, OK