CFB Zeitgeist Score
68
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 91st percentile.
Kaelon Black
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
1,039 RUSH YDS · 10 RUSH TD · 187 CARRIES
Where He Ended Up · NFL
San Francisco2026 NFL rookie season
#90Rd 3 · Pick 26
San Francisco2026 NFL rookie season
RB · INDIANA · BIG TEN
Kaelon Black
- 4
- #8
- 5-10 | 210 lb
- Virginia Beach, VA
Heisman Heat
#254
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2022–2025+212%
Up 212% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
R3 · #90
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
NFL Draft
2026 · Rd 3, Pick 26
#90 overall · San Francisco
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Kaelon Black
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
—
Awaiting per-cohort signal
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- National · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Kaelon Black
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Rushing WEPA per carry
+0.190
EPA
P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries
National rank #17 of 66
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries 75th
Why it matters
#17 of 66 P4 + Notre Dame RBs by rushing weighted- EPA per carry — +0.190 EPA/carry on 181 carries.
Vs cohort
This player +0.190 (75th)
HIGH · n=181 cohort 66
- Also strong
- Yards per carry#16 / 69
- Rushing yards (total)#13 / 69
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 16g
1,039Rush yards
187Carries
10Rush TDs
Per game
64.9Rush yards
12Carries
1Rush TDs
Final
1,039Rush yards
187Carries
10Rush TDs
✓ Hit 750-yard season · finished with 1,039.
✓ Hit 1,000-yard season · finished with 1,039.
✓ Hit 10 rushing TDs · finished with 10.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Kaelon Black's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Indiana, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Workhorse against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
187 96th
YDS
1,039 96th
YPC
5.6 77th
TD
10 96th
Receiving
REC
4 38th
YDS
36 41st
YPR
9.0 71st
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 16 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 27-14vs Old Dominion | 17 | 92 | 5.4 | 1 | 36 | |
| Wk 2 | W 56-9vs Kennesaw State | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | 0 | 29 | |
| Wk 3 | W 73-0vs Indiana State | 7 | 68 | 9.7 | 0 | 29 | |
| Wk 4 | W 63-10vs Illinois | 10 | 89 | 8.9 | 1 | 40 | |
| Wk 5 | W 20-15@ Iowa | 11 | 38 | 3.5 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 7 | W 30-20@ Oregon | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 | 14 | |
| Wk 8 | W 38-13vs Michigan State | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 1 | 29 | |
| Wk 9 | W 56-6vs UCLA | 10 | 70 | 7.0 | 0 | 28 | |
| Wk 10 | W 55-10@ Maryland | 14 | 110 | 7.9 | 1 | 31 | Season-high 110 yds |
| Wk 11 | W 27-24@ Penn State | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 1 | 10 | |
| Wk 12 | W 31-7vs Wisconsin | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | |
| Wk 14 | W 56-3@ Purdue | 13 | 66 | 5.1 | 2 | 16 | |
| Wk 15 | W 13-10@ Ohio State | 16 | 69 | 4.3 | 0 | 37 | |
| Bowl | W 38-3vs Alabama | 15 | 99 | 6.6 | 1 | 25 | |
| Bowl | W 56-22vs Oregon | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 2 | 23 | |
| Bowl | W 27-21vs Miami | 17 | 79 | 4.6 | 0 | 20 | |
| Total | 187 | 1039 | 5.6 | 10 | 40 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022James Madison8-3HC: Curt Cignetti · Run-leaning
2023James Madison11-2HC: Damian Wroblewski · Balanced
2024Indiana11-2HC: Curt Cignetti · Run-leaning
2025Indiana16-0HC: Curt Cignetti · Run-heavy
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Indiana | 187 | 1,039 | 5.6 | 10 | -- |
| 2024 | Indiana | 46 | 251 | 5.5 | 2 | -- |
| 2023 | James Madison | 142 | 637 | 4.5 | 1 | -- |
| 2022 | James Madison | 69 | 333 | 4.8 | 3 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 444 | 2,260 | 5.1 | 16 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Indiana | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 | -- |
| 2024 | Indiana | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | James Madison | 25 | 238 | 9.5 | 4 | -- |
| 2022 | James Madison | 17 | 177 | 10.4 | 2 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 50 | 457 | 9.1 | 6 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 1,039 | #32/735 | 96th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 10 | #33/739 | 96th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 5.6 | #172/735 | 77th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 4 | #343/552 | 38th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 36 | #322/548 | 41st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.19 | #67/362 | 82nd pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 181 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 17.5% | #120/738 | 84th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 187 | #33/739 | 96th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 40 | #233/733 | 68th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 11 | #395/540 | 27th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 9.0 | #159/548 | 71st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 29.2% | #132/738 | 82nd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 19.1% | #107/738 | 86th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 18.6% | #154/738 | 79th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 18.0% | #177/738 | 76th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 14.1% | #82/738 | 89th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 13.4% | #109/738 | 85th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 1.0% | #506/738 | 32nd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/256 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 16 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home10g | 69.3 | 6.2 | 0.6 |
| Road6g | 57.7 | 4.6 | 0.7 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins16g | 64.9 | 5.6 | 0.6 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-79g | 68.4 | 6.0 | 0.6 |
| Weeks 8+7g | 60.4 | 5.1 | 0.7 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
68Solid starter
Elite: rush yards (90th). Strength: carries (90th). Concern: receptions (12th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.19High (p75–p90) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Kaelon BlackIndianaLucky SuttonSan Diego State· 88% simCaleb KomolafeNorthwestern· 83% simJeremiah CobbAuburn· 81% sim
Rush yards
Carries
Rush TDs
Fumbles lost
Yards / carry
Long run
Rec yards
Receptions
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Speed Merchant
Cuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jaquez Moore’s 2023 season.
Jaquez Moore
82%match
#2
Antario Brown
80%
#3
TreVeyon Henderson
NFL Rd 2 · Pk 6
76%
#4
Kevorian Barnes
74%
#5
Harrison Waylee
74%
Matches Jaquez on
Yards / carry
Height
Receiving share
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Cam'Ron Harris’s path through Miami.
Cam'Ron Harris
99%match
#2
Caleb Huntley
All-MAC
98%
#3
CJ Evans Jr.
97%
#4
Taylor Tatum
96%
#5
AJ Green
94%
Matches Cam'Ron on
Height
Weight
Yards per carry
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Chez Mellusi's senior season at Wisconsin (2023).
Chez Mellusi
78%match
#2
Harrison Waylee
All-MAC
76%
#3
Zachary Palmer-Smith
76%
#4
Le'Veon Moss
75%
#5
Sam Franklin
73%
Matches Chez on
Yards / carry
Height
Receiving share
Differs from Chez on
Rush TD rate (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Curt Cignetti
Pass share
38.7%
404 pass / 641 run
Plays / game
65.3
16 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.3%
275 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
2 coaches2022
Tom Allen
Indiana
2023
Tom Allen
Indiana
2024era →
Curt Cignetti
Indiana
2025
Curt Cignetti
Indiana
Coaching transition mid-career: Tom Allen → Curt Cignetti. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownVirginia Beach, VA
Height5'10"
Weight210 lb
Class4
PositionRB
Jersey8
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamIndiana
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Indiana | RB4 | #254 | #196 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2023 | James Madison | RB4 | #285 | #278 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Sun Belt |
| 2022 | James Madison | RB4 | #521 | #536 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Sun Belt |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Indiana | Big Ten | RB | 4 | No. 8 | 5-10 | 210 lb | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 2024 | Indiana | Big Ten | RB | 4 | No. 8 | 5-10 | 210 lb | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 2023 | James Madison | Sun Belt | RB | 4 | No. 8 | 5-10 | 210 lb | Virginia Beach, VA |
| 2022 | James Madison | Sun Belt | RB | 4 | No. 8 | 5-10 | 210 lb | Virginia Beach, VA |