CFB Zeitgeist Score
4
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / catch at the 11th percentile.
Justius Lowe
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
56 REC YDS · 6 REC · 0 REC TD
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to San Diego State
2025Oregon
2026San Diego State
WR · OREGON · BIG TEN
Justius Lowe
- 3
- #14
- 6-1 | 197 lb
- Portland, OR
Heisman Heat
#562
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2024–2025-72%
Sharp dropoff (-72%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Oregon
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8852 | No. 488 recruit | HighSchool | Oregon |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Oregon -> San Diego State | 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Oregon
Composite
0.8852
#488 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Justius Lowe
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
75
Grounded Optimism
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=2
- National · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Justius Lowe
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 4g
56Rec yards
6Receptions
0Rec TDs
Per game
14Rec yards
2Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
182Rec yards
20Receptions
0Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 56): needs 71.6/game over remaining 9.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 56): needs 104.9/game over remaining 9.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 6): needs 6/game over remaining 9.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 6): needs 8.2/game over remaining 9.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 0.9/game over remaining 9.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 1.1/game over remaining 9.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Justius Lowe's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Oregon, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
6 37th
YDS
56 32nd
YPR
9.3 27th
TD
0 45th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 4 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 59-13vs Montana State | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 2 | W 69-3vs Oklahoma State | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 11 | W 18-16@ Iowa | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wk 12 | W 42-13vs Minnesota | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 | 14 | Season-high 22 yds |
| Total | 6 | 56 | 8.9 | 0 | 14 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Oregon10-3HC: Dan Lanning · Run-leaning
2024Oregon13-1HC: Dan Lanning · Balanced
2025Oregon13-2HC: Dan Lanning · Run-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 6 | #696/1110 | 37th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 56 | #758/1107 | 32nd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #615/1111 | 45th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 9.3 | #808/1106 | 27th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 6.9% | #696/1137 | 39th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 14 | #876/1105 | 21st pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 7.0% | #463/1137 | 59th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 4.7% | #665/1137 | 42nd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 3.7% | #696/1137 | 39th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 2.8% | #812/1137 | 29th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 1.6% | #938/1137 | 18th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 1.5% | #999/1137 | 12th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #391/1137 | 66th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 4 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 1.7 | 17.7 | 10.8 | 0.0 |
| Road1g | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins4g | 1.5 | 14.0 | 8.9 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-72g | 1.5 | 15.5 | 10.8 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+2g | 1.5 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
4Below cohort
Concern: receptions (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Justius LoweOregonMichael Jackson IIIPurdue· 48% simJacquon GibsonMassachusetts· 42% simAaron TurnerRice· 39% sim
Yards / catch
Rec TDs
Long catch
Rec yards
Receptions
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Dan Lanning
Pass share
44.9%
436 pass / 534 run
Plays / game
64.7
15 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
4.8%
250 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Dan Lanning
Oregon
2024
Dan Lanning
Oregon
2025
Dan Lanning
Oregon
Played his entire career under Dan Lanning.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownPortland, OR
Height6'1"
Weight197 lb
Class3
PositionWR
Jersey14
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamOregon
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.