CFB Zeitgeist Score
83
All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by rec tds at the 98th percentile.
Justin Joly
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
489 REC YDS · 49 REC · 7 REC TD
Where He Ended Up · NFL
Denver2026 NFL rookie season
#152Rd 5 · Pick 12
Denver2026 NFL rookie season
TE · NC STATE · ACC
Justin Joly
- 4
- #7
- 6-3 | 251 lb
- Brewster, NY
Heisman Heat
#3393
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP TE AWARD
Mackey
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
3 seasons on the ladder
2022
UConn · TE
—
2023
UConn · TE
—
★
2025
NC State · TE
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
NFL Draft 2026 · Rd 5, Pick 12 · #152 overall · Denver
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2022–2025+96%
Up 96% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
R5 · #152
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | UConn -> NC State | 4-star | 0.9200 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in receiving yards (489).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
NFL Draft
2026 · Rd 5, Pick 12
#152 overall · Denver
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Justin Joly
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Justin Joly
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 12g
489Rec yards
49Receptions
7Rec TDs
Per game
40.8Rec yards
4Receptions
1Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
529.8Rec yards
53Receptions
8Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 489): needs 211/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 489): needs 511/game over remaining 1.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 49): needs 11/game over remaining 1.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 49): needs 31/game over remaining 1.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 7): needs 1/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 7): needs 3/game over remaining 1.
Why the honors trail matters
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Justin Joly already has 1 loaded recognition item, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
TE season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Target magnet against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
49 99th
YDS
489 97th
YPR
10.0 54th
TD
7 100th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 24-17vs East Carolina | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 2 | W 35-31vs Virginia | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 0 | 21 | |
| Wk 3 | W 34-24@ Wake Forest | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 2 | 8 | 2 TD catches |
| Wk 4 | L 33-45@ Duke | 5 | 63 | 12.6 | 0 | 18 | |
| Wk 5 | L 21-23vs Virginia Tech | 6 | 60 | 10.0 | 0 | 22 | |
| Wk 6 | W 56-10vs Campbell | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 1 | 15 | |
| Wk 7 | L 7-36@ Notre Dame | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 9 | L 34-53@ Pittsburgh | 6 | 101 | 16.8 | 2 | 59 | Season-high 101 yds |
| Wk 12 | L 7-41@ Miami | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 13 | W 21-11vs Florida State | 5 | 66 | 13.2 | 1 | 27 | |
| Wk 14 | W 42-19vs North Carolina | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 1 | 19 | |
| Bowl | W 31-7vs Memphis | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | 17 | |
| Total | 49 | 489 | 9.3 | 7 | 59 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022UConn6-7HC: Jim Mora · Run-heavy, slow tempo
2023UConn3-9HC: Jim Mora · Balanced
2025NC State8-5HC: Dave Doeren · Balanced
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The tight end's share of the passing offense, which helps distinguish a featured receiving tight end from a secondary option.
A blended usage view that shows how often the offense flows through the tight end compared with other same-level peers.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 49 | #7/475 | 99th pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 489 | #17/475 | 97th pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 7 | #2/475 | 100th pct | Scoringvs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 10.0 | #220/475 | 54th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Pass share | 15.7% | #18/468 | 96th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 59 | #21/475 | 96th pct | Metricvs FBS TE |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 11.0% | #9/468 | 98th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 9.0% | #36/468 | 93rd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | Role share | 7.9% | #16/468 | 97th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS TE |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 7.3% | #20/468 | 96th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 7.0% | #80/468 | 83rd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 5.7% | #53/468 | 89th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #58/468 | 88th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS TE |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Mackey award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 4.4 | 41.1 | 9.5 | 0.4 |
| Road5g | 3.6 | 40.2 | 9.2 | 0.8 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins7g | 4.1 | 35.7 | 8.8 | 0.7 |
| Losses5g | 4.0 | 47.8 | 10.1 | 0.4 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-78g | 4.0 | 35.6 | 8.6 | 0.4 |
| Weeks 8+4g | 4.2 | 51.0 | 10.8 | 1.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the TE cohort
83All-Conference
Elite: rec tds (98th). Strength: receptions (96th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · TE · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Justin JolyNC StateTanner KoziolHouston· 94% simJeremiah HasleyDuke· 89% simSeydou TraoreMississippi State· 88% sim
Rec TDs
Receptions
Rec yards
Long catch
Yards / catch
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Complete TE
Dual-threat: blocks when needed, catches when needed. Coveted on both sides.
TE
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Ryan Jones’s 2021 season.
Ryan Jones
74%match
#2
Josh Cuevas
NFL Rd 5
71%
#3
Jack Westover
70%
#4
Rivaldo Fairweather
69%
#5
Jeremiah Hasley
68%
Matches Ryan on
Yards / reception
TD rate
EPA / play (adj)
Differs from Ryan on
Reception volume (higher)
Weight (higher)
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Christian Trahan’s path through Houston.
Christian Trahan
83%match
#2
Tommy Tremble
NFL Rd 3 · Pk 20
79%
#3
Brenton Strange
All-Big TenNFL Rd 2 · Pk 30
76%
#4
Erick All
NFL Rd 4
73%
#5
Niko Hea
72%
Matches Christian on
Height
Yards per reception
Weight
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Josh Cuevas's senior season at Alabama (2025).
Josh Cuevas
80%match
NFL Rd 5
#2
Dallas Payne
79%
#3
Lance Mason
All-Big Ten
73%
#4
Justin Holmes
75%
#5
Seydou Traore
All-Sun BeltNFL Rd 5
75%
Matches Josh on
Total EPA (college ability)
Weight
Yards / reception
Differs from Josh on
Reception volume (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Dave Doeren
Pass share
49.7%
411 pass / 416 run
Plays / game
63.6
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.5%
307 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Dave Doeren
NC State
2023
Dave Doeren
NC State
2025
Dave Doeren
NC State
Played his entire career under Dave Doeren.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownBrewster, NY
Height6'3"
Weight251 lb
Class4
PositionTE
Jersey7
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamNC State
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-ACC
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-ACC | all_conference | NC State | ACC | TE |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.