CFB Zeitgeist Score
31
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by interceptions at the 82nd percentile.
Josh Holst
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
689 PASS YDS · 4 PASS TD · 155 RUSH YDS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Northern Illinois for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Quarterback · Northern Illinois
Returning around him
- 53% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- Transfer portal: -17 net (5 in / 22 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Northern Illinois · Last season: 3-9 · Talent rank #125 · 2026 recruiting class #84
QB · NORTHERN ILLINOIS · MID-AMERICAN
Josh Holst
- 2
- #15
- 6-4 | 204 lb
- Marengo, IL
Heisman Heat
#1697
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
Northern Illinois
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in passing yards (689).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Josh Holst
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Josh Holst
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 7g
689Pass yards
4Pass TDs
3INT
Per game
98.4Pass yards
1Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
1,280Pass yards
7Pass TDs
6INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 689): needs 385.2/game over remaining 6.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 689): needs 551.8/game over remaining 6.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 4): needs 3.5/game over remaining 6.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 4): needs 4.3/game over remaining 6.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 4): needs 5.2/game over remaining 6.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Josh Holst's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Northern Illinois, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
78 62nd
ATT
130 64th
CMP%
60.0% 46th
Y/A
5.3 21st
Passing Production
YDS
689 58th
TD
4 61st
INT
3 43rd
Rushing
CAR
54 72nd
YDS
155 75th
YPC
2.9 53rd
TD
1 63rd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 7 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 19-17vs Holy Cross | 12/18 | 101 | 0 | 1 | 5.6 | 11.8 | |
| Wk 2 | L 9-20@ Maryland | 14/22 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 4.1 | 25.4 | |
| Wk 4 | L 10-38@ Mississippi State | 14/23 | 135 | 1 | 1 | 5.9 | 50.5 | |
| Wk 5 | L 3-6vs San Diego State | 6/14 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 13.3 | |
| Wk 8 | L 21-48@ Ohio | 21/29 | 161 | 2 | 0 | 5.6 | 22.6 | Season-high 161 yds |
| Wk 9 | W 21-7vs Ball State | 6/11 | 65 | 1 | 1 | 5.9 | 65.8 | |
| Wk 11 | L 3-42@ Toledo | 5/13 | 87 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 | 23.1 | |
| Total | 78/130 | 689 | 4 | 3 | 5.3 | 30.4 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025Northern Illinois3-9HC: Thomas Hammock · Run-heavy, slow tempo
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Northern Illinois | 78 | 130 | 60.0% | 689 | 5.3 | 4 | 3 | 110.1 | -- | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 78 | 130 | 60.0% | 689 | 5.3 | 4 | 3 | 110.1 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Northern Illinois | 54 | 155 | 2.9 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 54 | 155 | 2.9 | 1 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 689 | #162/382 | 58th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 4 | #159/407 | 61st pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 78 | #146/383 | 62nd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 60.0% | #208/383 | 46th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 5.3 | #302/382 | 21st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 155 | #102/408 | 75th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.24 | #118/200 | 42nd pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 122 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 44.6% | #120/428 | 72nd pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 130 | #148/407 | 64th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 3 | #234/407 | 43rd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 54 | #114/408 | 72nd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 36 | #86/391 | 78th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 2.9 | #193/407 | 53rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 1 | #151/408 | 63rd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 80.8% | #113/428 | 74th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 56.2% | #119/428 | 72nd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 54.4% | #134/428 | 69th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 49.6% | #84/428 | 81st pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 38.1% | #118/428 | 73rd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 35.2% | #134/428 | 69th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 18.8% | #72/428 | 83rd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.22 | #83/140 | 41st pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 35 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #69/258 | 74th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 7 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 71.7 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 0.7 |
| Road4g | 118 | 0.8 | 5.6 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins2g | 83.0 | 0.5 | 5.8 | 1.0 |
| Losses5g | 105 | 0.6 | 5.2 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-74g | 94.0 | 0.2 | 4.8 | 0.5 |
| Weeks 8+3g | 104 | 1.0 | 6.1 | 0.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
31Below cohort
Elite: interceptions (82nd). Concern: yards / att (4th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds66%of completions
41 comp4.3 yds avg
Middle
10–19 yds24%of completions
15 comp13.5 yds avg
Deep
20+ yds10%of completions
6 comp28.5 yds avg2 TD
Overall 60.8% completion on 102 attempts.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Concerns: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.24Low (p25–p50) (n=94)
wepa_rushing0.22Low (p25–p50) (n=72)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Josh HolstNorthern IllinoisNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 70% simRyan BrownePurdue· 63% simDrake LindseyMinnesota· 62% sim
Interceptions
Fumbles lost
Rush yards
Completion %
Rush TDs
Pass TDs
Pass yards
Yards / att
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Terry Wilson’s 2021 season.
Terry Wilson
71%match
#2
Austin Smith
70%
#3
Brendon Lewis
69%
#4
Jeff Sims
68%
#5
DJ Irons
66%
Matches Terry on
Yards / attempt
TD rate
Height
Differs from Terry on
Class year (lower)
Rush yards / carry (higher)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Tyrrell Pigrome’s path through Towson.
Tyrrell Pigrome
95%match
#2
Hunter Hays
89%
#3
Trae Self
85%
#4
Max Gilliam
83%
#5
Forrest Brock
83%
Matches Tyrrell on
Completion %
Yards per attempt
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Hunter Watson's sophomore season at Sam Houston (2025).
Hunter Watson
64%match
#2
Aidan Armenta
60%
#3
Terry Wilson
60%
#4
Nick Evers
60%
#5
Desmond Trotter
59%
Matches Hunter on
Completion %
Weight
Height
Differs from Hunter on
Class year (lower)
Yards / attempt (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Thomas Hammock
Pass share
33.0%
244 pass / 495 run
Plays / game
61.6
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.3%
234 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy, slow tempo.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Thomas Hammock
Northern Illinois
Played his entire career under Thomas Hammock.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownMarengo, IL
Height6'4"
Weight204 lb
Class2
PositionQB
Jersey15
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamNorthern Illinois
ConferenceMid-American
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Northern Illinois | QB2 | #1697 | #1844 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mid-American |
| 2023 | Northern Illinois | QB2 | #2178 | #2121 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mid-American |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Northern Illinois | Mid-American | QB | 2 | No. 15 | 6-4 | 204 lb | Marengo, IL |
| 2024 | Northern Illinois | Mid-American | QB | 2 | No. 15 | 6-4 | 204 lb | Marengo, IL |
| 2023 | Northern Illinois | Mid-American | QB | 2 | No. 15 | 6-4 | 204 lb | Marengo, IL |