CFB Zeitgeist RB Score
Awaiting
Jaylon Armstead
Limited signal — not enough coverage for a story yet.
RB · SAN DIEGO STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Jaylon Armstead
- 4
- #2
- 5-11 | 222 lb
- Los Angeles, CA
Heisman Heat
#3783
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 0 · Not on teamR01 · Scout team / redshirt
Scout team / redshirt. Developing behind the depth chart.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2021–2023+497%
Up 497% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
San Diego State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3-star | 0.8367 | No. 1654 recruit | HighSchool | San Diego State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San Diego State -> Portland State | 3-star | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to San Diego State
Composite
0.8367
#1654 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Jaylon Armstead
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Jaylon Armstead
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Scenario Explorer
Available for players with a qualifying signature metric (passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks, etc.). The slider projects how a season finishes if the current pace holds.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Jaylon Armstead's story is about how role and output meet each other. For San Diego State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2023 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2023 season snapshot | final
2023 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.
2023 Season · Final
2023 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
103 79th
YDS
448 75th
YPC
4.3 41st
TD
8 93rd
Receiving
REC
3 33rd
YDS
16 26th
YPR
5.3 29th
TD
0 70th
Game Log
Week-by-week box
No per-game rows for this season yet — the table fills in as box scores arrive.
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021San Diego State11-2HC: Brady Hoke · Run-heavy
2022San Diego State7-6HC: Brady Hoke · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2023San Diego State4-8HC: Brady Hoke · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | San Diego State | 103 | 448 | 4.3 | 8 | -- |
| 2022 | San Diego State | 52 | 313 | 6.0 | 2 | -- |
| 2021 | San Diego State | 24 | 75 | 3.1 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 179 | 836 | 4.7 | 10 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | San Diego State | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | -- |
| 2022 | San Diego State | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2021 | San Diego State | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 448 | #188/735 | 75th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 8 | #51/739 | 93rd pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.3 | #435/735 | 41st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 3 | #371/552 | 33rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 16 | #408/548 | 26th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 10.2% | #311/738 | 58th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 103 | #158/739 | 79th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 48 | #183/733 | 75th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 7 | #455/540 | 16th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 5.3 | #389/548 | 29th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return avg | 20.0 | #79/199 | 61st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return yards | 20 | #149/200 | 26th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick returns | 1 | #139/206 | 33rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 17.4% | #305/738 | 59th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 12.0% | #295/738 | 60th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 11.6% | #282/738 | 62nd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 10.0% | #361/738 | 51st pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 7.7% | #300/738 | 59th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 6.8% | #360/738 | 51st pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 0.0% | #564/738 | 24th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 2 | #205/256 | 20th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits
Per-game splits
Splits fill in once box scores from at least three games land for this season.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Sean Lewis
Pass share
35.3%
290 pass / 532 run
Plays / game
63.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.6%
224 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2023
1 coach2021
Brady Hoke
San Diego State
2022
Brady Hoke
San Diego State
2023
Brady Hoke
San Diego State
Played his entire career under Brady Hoke.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownLos Angeles, CA
Height5'11"
Weight222 lb
Class4
PositionRB
Jersey2
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamSan Diego State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2024
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | San Diego State | RB4 | #3783 | #4036 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2023 | San Diego State | RB4 | #1248 | #1681 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2022 | San Diego State | RB4 | #1294 | #1385 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2021 | San Diego State | RB4 | #1724 | #1533 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | San Diego State | Mountain West | RB | 4 | No. 2 | 5-11 | 222 lb | Los Angeles, CA |
| 2023 | San Diego State | Mountain West | RB | 4 | No. 2 | 5-11 | 222 lb | Los Angeles, CA |
| 2022 | San Diego State | Mountain West | RB | 4 | No. 2 | 5-11 | 222 lb | Los Angeles, CA |
| 2021 | San Diego State | Mountain West | RB | 4 | No. 2 | 5-11 | 222 lb | Los Angeles, CA |