CFB Zeitgeist Score
60
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by completion % at the 81st percentile.
Jaylen Raynor
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
3,364 PASS YDS · 19 PASS TD · 428 RUSH YDS
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Iowa State
2025Arkansas State
2026Iowa State
QB · ARKANSAS STATE · SUN BELT
Jaylen Raynor
- 3
- #1
- 6-0 | 202 lb
- Kernersville, NC
Heisman Heat
#1877
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2023–2025+32%
Up 32% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
Arkansas State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Arkansas State -> Iowa State | 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Volume King 1.3% Volume King 2,500+ passing yards, 1,200+ rushing yards, or 900+ receiving yards in a single season (position-appropriate threshold). Held by 1.3% of the 2025 pool. 3364 passing yards — clears the 2,500-QB volume bar.
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (428).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Jaylen Raynor
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
57
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=14
- Rivals · n=2
- National · n=3
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Jaylen Raynor
Only 2 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 13g
3,364Pass yards
19Pass TDs
11INT
Per game
258.8Pass yards
1Pass TDs
1INT
Final
3,364Pass yards
19Pass TDs
11INT
✓ Hit 3,000-yard season · finished with 3,364.
Why this is a two-channel quarterback case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The unusual part of Jaylen Raynor's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For Arkansas State, he has 3,364 passing yards and 19 touchdown passes, but he also adds 428 rushing yards and 7 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-volume passer | Efficient | Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
332 99th
ATT
500 99th
CMP%
66.4% 72nd
Y/A
6.7 45th
Passing Production
YDS
3,364 95th
TD
19 89th
INT
11 5th
Rushing
CAR
154 96th
YDS
428 89th
YPC
2.8 51st
TD
7 90th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 42-24vs Southeast Missouri State | 26/32 | 345 | 3 | 0 | 10.8 | 80.0 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 2 | L 14-56@ Arkansas | 21/33 | 125 | 1 | 2 | 3.8 | 42.1 | |
| Wk 3 | L 16-24vs Iowa State | 19/33 | 222 | 0 | 1 | 6.7 | 51.0 | |
| Wk 4 | L 21-28@ Kennesaw State | 25/41 | 226 | 2 | 0 | 5.5 | 28.2 | |
| Wk 5 | L 16-28@ UL Monroe | 29/46 | 288 | 0 | 1 | 6.3 | 20.5 | |
| Wk 6 | W 31-30vs Texas State | 27/35 | 248 | 2 | 0 | 7.1 | 62.3 | |
| Wk 8 | W 15-14@ South Alabama | 29/45 | 209 | 1 | 1 | 4.6 | 43.5 | |
| Wk 9 | W 34-24vs Georgia Southern | 24/37 | 216 | 0 | 1 | 5.8 | 53.4 | |
| Wk 10 | W 23-10@ Troy | 21/29 | 247 | 2 | 0 | 8.5 | 66.1 | |
| Wk 11 | L 21-27vs Southern Miss | 37/48 | 331 | 2 | 4 | 6.9 | 59.3 | 4 INTs — rough day |
| Wk 13 | L 30-34vs Louisiana | 25/43 | 256 | 0 | 0 | 6.0 | 42.6 | |
| Wk 14 | W 30-29@ App State | 32/47 | 363 | 3 | 1 | 7.7 | 59.8 | Season-high 363 yds |
| Bowl | W 34-28vs Missouri State | 17/31 | 288 | 3 | 0 | 9.3 | 73.1 | |
| Total | 332/500 | 3364 | 19 | 11 | 6.8 | 52.5 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Arkansas State6-7HC: Butch Jones · Run-leaning
2025Arkansas State7-6HC: Butch Jones · Balanced
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Arkansas State | 332 | 500 | 66.4% | 3,364 | 6.7 | 19 | 11 | 131.1 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Arkansas State | 166 | 285 | 58.2% | 2,543 | 8.9 | 17 | 7 | 148.0 | -- | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 498 | 785 | 63.4% | 5,907 | 7.5 | 36 | 18 | 137.2 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Arkansas State | 154 | 428 | 2.8 | 7 | -- |
| 2023 | Arkansas State | 123 | 380 | 3.1 | 5 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 277 | 808 | 2.9 | 12 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 3,364 | #20/382 | 95th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 19 | #44/407 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 332 | #4/383 | 99th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 66.4% | #110/383 | 72nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 6.7 | #210/382 | 45th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 428 | #44/408 | 89th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.12 | #182/200 | 10th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 498 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 67.2% | #2/428 | 100th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 500 | #4/407 | 99th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 11 | #386/407 | 5th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 154 | #17/408 | 96th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 42 | #61/391 | 85th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 7 | #43/408 | 90th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 2.8 | #202/407 | 51st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 97.2% | #7/428 | 99th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 83.0% | #2/428 | 100th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 80.5% | #6/428 | 99th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 71.5% | #1/428 | 100th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 60.4% | #3/428 | 100th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 57.5% | #5/428 | 99th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 29.2% | #17/428 | 96th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.20 | #93/140 | 34th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 126 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 2 | #163/258 | 37th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 272 | 1.4 | 7.5 | 0.9 |
| Road6g | 243 | 1.5 | 6.1 | 0.8 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins7g | 274 | 2.0 | 7.7 | 0.4 |
| Losses6g | 241 | 0.8 | 5.9 | 1.3 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 249 | 1.6 | 7.1 | 0.6 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 270 | 1.3 | 6.6 | 1.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
60Solid starter
Elite: pass yards (89th). Strength: completion % (80th). Concern: interceptions (9th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds59%of completions
91 comp5.5 yds avg3 TD
Middle
10–19 yds27%of completions
42 comp12.9 yds avg1 TD
Deep
20+ yds14%of completions
22 comp30.1 yds avg1 TD
Overall 61.0% completion on 254 attempts · 22 deep completions averaging 30.1 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Concerns: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.12Below (<p25) (n=94)
wepa_rushing0.2Low (p25–p50) (n=72)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Jaylen RaynorArkansas StateCJ BaileyNC State· 82% simBrendon LewisMemphis· 82% simNoah KimEastern Michigan· 82% sim
Pass yards
Completion %
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Pass TDs
Fumbles lost
Yards / att
Interceptions
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Frank Harris’s 2023 season.
Frank Harris
78%match
All-AAC
#2
Giovanni Lopez
78%
#3
Brady McBride
74%
#4
Jack Abraham
All-Conference USA
72%
#5
Nick Vattiato
74%
Matches Frank on
Yards / attempt
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Rush yards / carry
Differs from Frank on
TD rate (lower)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Caden Creel’s path through Jacksonville State.
Caden Creel
88%match
#2
Drew Pyne
86%
#3
Michael Hawkins Jr.
84%
#4
Luke Anthony
84%
#5
Gevani McCoy
84%
Matches Caden on
Height
Yards per attempt
Completion %
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Giovanni Lopez's junior season at North Carolina (2025).
Giovanni Lopez
76%match
#2
JC French
70%
#3
Keyone Jenkins
66%
#4
Nick Vattiato
64%
#5
Bishop Davenport
63%
Matches Giovanni on
Yards / attempt
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Rush yards / carry
Differs from Giovanni on
Class year (higher)
EPA / dropback (adj) (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Butch Jones
Pass share
53.7%
506 pass / 437 run
Plays / game
72.5
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.6%
367 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
1 coach2023
Butch Jones
Arkansas State
2025
Butch Jones
Arkansas State
Played his entire career under Butch Jones.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownKernersville, NC
Height6'0"
Weight202 lb
Class3
PositionQB
Jersey1
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamArkansas State
ConferenceSun Belt
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2024)
All-Sun Belt
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | All-Sun Belt | all_conference | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | QB |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Arkansas State | QB3 | #1877 | #2213 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Sun Belt |
| 2023 | Arkansas State | QB3 | #159 | #284 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Sun Belt |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | QB | 3 | No. 1 | 6-0 | 202 lb | Kernersville, NC |
| 2024 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | QB | 3 | No. 1 | 6-0 | 202 lb | Kernersville, NC |
| 2023 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | QB | 3 | No. 1 | 6-0 | 202 lb | Kernersville, NC |