Heisman / Players / Jayden Maiava /USC

Jayden Maiava

QB · USC · Jr · #14

Filling the Shoesas of 2026-06-22

Maiava posted 3,711 passing yards and 24 touchdowns last season, then changed programs for 2026.

3,711PASS YDS24PASS TD157RUSH YDS

PASSING VALUE · WEPA

+0.59

via your WEPA model · 2025 · 407 plays

Fans price his perception around the 78th percentile; the tape produces at the 99th — why isn't he getting the credit?

Read the story so far

Maiava enters 2026 ranked tenth among returning quarterbacks with 50-plus career passing touchdowns, sitting at 52. He inherited the job from Miller Moss at USC, produced respectable numbers, then moved programs. Big Ten analysts are already slotting him into conference quarterback rankings alongside Dante Moore and Bryce Underwood. A full backfield and a fresh roster around him are the variables that will define whether last season was a foundation or a ceiling.

The program change buys him a new story, but the 2026 schedule will write the ending.

QB successioncontinuity

Inherited fromMiller Moss 4★

Why nowHe changed programs heading into 2026 — a fresh fit to prove out.

season totals
via your WEPA model · 2025 · 407 plays
throne-line + Filling-the-Shoes

AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data

2026 RETURNINGReturning to USC for 2026As of Jun 22, 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to USC for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Quarterback · USC

Returning around him

37% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
3 USC players drafted to NFL
Transfer portal: -13 net (9 in / 22 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

USC · Last season: 9-4 (AP #16) · Talent rank #17 · 2026 recruiting class #14

QB · USC · BIG TEN

Jayden Maiava

3
#14
6-4 | 230 lb
Las Vegas, NV

CFB Zeitgeist Score

All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by yards / att at the 95th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#80

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP QB AWARD

Davey O'Brien

—

CONSENSUS

All-American

—

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Aura™ · Him Watch the full board →

Underrated -22aura tax

Fans rank this player in the 77th percentile of QBs; the tape says 99th — the tape outruns the hype.

Aura — fan perception77th pctl

Production — on-field99th pctl

n=21 mentions · cohort: QBs · 160 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = wepa_passing

Career arc · Season-by-season Standing

3 seasons on the ladder

Peak: R09 All-Conference HM / 2nd team · 2023

★

2023

UNLV · QB

R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team

Recognized

2024

USC · QB

—

2025

USC · QB

R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team

Recognized

Development Trajectory · passing yards

2023–2025

3,0852023

1,2012024

3,7112025

+20%

Modest growth (20%) across the multi-season window.

Career Arc

Recruit

★★★

#852 national

CFB

College

2 teams

2023–2025

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted (yet)

Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds

#11 in market ▲ from #12 · 6 books

+14006.7% implied▼ lengthened from +1100

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionQB

Class3

Jersey14

Measurements6-4 | 230 lb

HometownLas Vegas, NV

Primary teamUSC

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 852 recruit

Composite rating 0.8663 HighSchool

Signed with UNLV 2022

Origin Liberty Henderson, NV, USA

Class	Profile	Context
2022	3-star \| 0.8663	No. 852 recruit \| HighSchool \| UNLV

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file

Latest destination USC 2024

Transfer stars 4-star CFBD transfer rating context

Eligibility Immediate Jan 2, 2024

Season	Move	Context
2024	UNLV -> USC	4-star \| 0.9000 \| Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16

Current nowcast#80Latest modeled ballot order

Season forecast#79Where the full season sim points

Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy

Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier

Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot

Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

Volume King 1.3%
Program Benchmark 5.5%

Selector Grid · 2025

AP—

FWAA—

AFCA—

WCFF—

SN—

SI—

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

NIL Valuation · On3

$2.16M

#19 nationally · Jun 2026

Whisper Rate

$1.50M

per-deal market estimate

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to UNLV

Composite

0.8663

#852 national

Today’s Hot-Take

+0.567 combined wepa per play (pass + rush) — #2 in a 57-QB cohort, 98th percentile in the modern era.

Rank #2Cohort p4_plus_nd_qbs (P4 + Notre Dame QBs)Sample n=448Percentile 98

Efficiency rewards selectivity. Volume-adjusted rank in the same cohort almost always looks looser — call it elite, not unique.

Belief Meter

Mixed Sentiment

Sample 15 mentions

Confidence MEDIUM

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence map

Own fans · n=15
Rivals · n=3
National · n=8

Only 3 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.

2025 Signature · 2025 season

WEPA per dropback

+0.590

EPA

P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 250 dropbacks

National rank #2 of 58

Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 250 dropbacks 98th

Why it matters

#2 of 58 P4 + Notre Dame QBs by weighted EPA per dropback (min 250 dropbacks) — +0.590 EPA/play.

Vs cohort

This player +0.590 (98th)

HIGH · n=407 cohort 58

Also strong
Combined WEPA per play (pass + rush)#2 / 57
Total weighted-EPA passing#1 / 58
Yards per attempt#5 / 72

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the passing totals stand

final

Through 13g

3,711Pass yards

24Pass TDs

10INT

Per game

285.5Pass yards

2Pass TDs

1INT

Final

3,711Pass yards

24Pass TDs

10INT

✓ Hit 3,000-yard season · finished with 3,711.

Why this is a two-channel quarterback case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The unusual part of Jayden Maiava's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For USC, he has 3,711 passing yards and 24 touchdown passes, but he also adds 157 rushing yards and 6 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.

Current place #80 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist

Role load 51.2% Overall usage share

Profile quirk Transfer path 1 portal move

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

QB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level

Pass yards 3,711 24 TD | 10 INT | #5/382 (99th pct)

Completion rate 65.8% 265/403 completions | #119/383 (69th pct)

Yards/attempt 9.2 Explosiveness through the air | #46/382 (88th pct)

Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-volume passer | Efficient | Vertical threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.

High-volume passerEfficientVertical threatDual-threat

Passing Efficiency

CMP

265 93rd

ATT

403 94th

CMP%

65.8% 69th

Y/A

9.2 88th

Passing Production

YDS

3,711 99th

24 94th

INT

10 8th

Rushing

CAR

54 72nd

YDS

157 76th

YPC

2.9 53rd

6 88th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 73-13vs Missouri State	15/18	295	2	0	16.4	96.1	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 2	W 59-20vs Georgia Southern	16/24	412	4	0	17.2	96.4	Season-high 412 yds
Wk 3	W 33-17@ Purdue	17/28	282	0	0	10.1	90.1
Wk 4	W 45-31vs Michigan State	20/26	234	3	0	9.0	—	3 TD passes
Wk 5	L 32-34@ Illinois	30/43	364	2	1	8.5	85.5
Wk 7	W 31-13vs Michigan	25/32	265	2	1	8.3	89.4
Wk 8	L 24-34@ Notre Dame	22/42	328	2	2	7.8	87.5
Wk 10	W 21-17@ Nebraska	9/23	135	0	1	5.9	72.5
Wk 11	W 38-17vs Northwestern	24/33	299	2	1	9.1	93.0
Wk 12	W 26-21vs Iowa	23/32	254	1	0	7.9	88.7
Wk 13	L 27-42@ Oregon	25/43	306	3	2	7.1	95.8	3 TD passes
Wk 14	W 29-10vs UCLA	21/29	257	2	0	8.9	87.3	Clean 2-TD game
Bowl	L 27-30@ TCU	18/30	280	1	2	9.3	69.3
Total		265/403	3711	24	10	9.7	87.6

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023UNLV9-5HC: Barry Odom · Run-leaning

2024USC7-6HC: Lincoln Riley · Pass-leaning

2025USC9-4HC: Lincoln Riley · Balanced

Season	Team
2025	USC	265	403	65.8%	3,711	9.2	24	10	157.8	--	--
2024	USC	101	169	59.8%	1,201	7.1	11	6	133.8	--	--
2023	UNLV	224	353	63.5%	3,085	8.7	17	10	147.1	--	--
Career	3 loaded seasons	590	925	63.8%	7,997	8.6	52	26	149.3	--	--

Season	Team
2025	USC	54	157	2.9	6	--
2024	USC	20	45	2.2	4	--
2023	UNLV	73	277	3.8	3	--
Career	3 loaded seasons	147	479	3.3	13	--

Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context

Passing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.

Role share

How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Rush impact 157 6 rush TD | #100/408 (76th pct)

Usage 51.2% 94.0% pass share | 9.0% rush share | #70/428 (84th pct)

Passing WEPA +0.59 Opponent-adjusted passing value | #2/200 (100th pct)

Open full stat explorer

Group	Metric	Value	Rank	Pct	Why it matters
Passing	Passing yards	3,711	#5/382	99th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Pass TD	24	#24/407	94th pct	Scoringvs FBS QB
Passing	Completions	265	#28/383	93rd pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Completion %	65.8%	#119/383	69th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Passing	Yards / attempt	9.2	#46/382	88th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing	Rushing yards	157	#100/408	76th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Value	Passing WEPA	+0.59	#2/200	100th pct	Opponent-adjusted passing value \| 407 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Usage	Role share	51.2%	#70/428	84th pct	Share of team offensevs FBS QB
Passing	Attempts	403	#24/407	94th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Interceptions	10	#377/407	8th pct	Turnoversvs FBS QB
Rushing	Carries	54	#114/408	72nd pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Rushing	Rushing LONG	21	#167/391	58th pct	Metricvs FBS QB
Rushing	Rush TD	6	#48/408	88th pct	Scoringvs FBS QB
Rushing	Yards / carry	2.9	#193/407	53rd pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Usage	Pass share	94.0%	#33/428	93rd pct	Air-game usagevs FBS QB
Usage	Passing-down usage	66.4%	#66/428	85th pct	Known-passing sharevs FBS QB
Usage	3rd-down usage	63.5%	#82/428	81st pct	Money-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	2nd-down usage	56.6%	#35/428	92nd pct	Middle-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	Standard-down usage	45.6%	#63/428	86th pct	Base-situation sharevs FBS QB
Usage	1st-down usage	41.8%	#97/428	78th pct	Early-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	Rush share	9.0%	#177/428	59th pct	Ground-game usagevs FBS QB
Value	Rushing WEPA	+0.34	#28/140	81st pct	Opponent-adjusted rushing value \| 41 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Ball Security	Fumbles lost	0	#1/258	100th pct	Turnoversvs FBS QB

ALL-CONF HM

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16

Why he’s here

All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.

What moves him up

A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.

What moves him down

A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.

Accolade streams

Status—Awaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home7g	288	2.3	11.0	0.3
Road6g	282	1.3	8.1	1.3

Win vs Loss

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Wins9g	270	1.8	10.3	0.3
Losses4g	320	2.0	8.2	1.8

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-77g	305	2.0	11.3	0.6
Weeks 8+6g	263	1.7	7.8	1.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

75All-Conference

8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: pass yards (97th). Strength: yards / att (95th). Concern: interceptions (14th).

Pass yards#5 / 183 · 98th pct

3711pass

Yards / att#8 / 183 · 95th pct

9.2pass

Fumbles lost#1 / 174 · 91st pct

0fumb

Pass TDs#24 / 183 · 85th pct

24pass

Completion %#45 / 183 · 75th pct

65.8%pass

Rush TDs#43 / 183 · 74th pct

6rush

Rush yards#79 / 183 · 57th pct

157rush

Interceptions#153 / 183 · 14th pct

10pass

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)

Where the throws are landing

141/207 (68.1%) · 14 TD · 5 INT

Short

0–9 yds

40%of completions

57 comp5.6 yds avg2 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

34%of completions

48 comp13.2 yds avg6 TD

Deep

20+ yds

26%of completions

36 comp33.7 yds avg6 TD

Overall 68.1% completion on 207 attempts · 36 deep completions averaging 33.7 yds.

EPA / dropback0.590

92th pct

CPOE—

awaiting

Success rate—

awaiting

Explosive rate (20+)—

awaiting

aDOT—

awaiting

Deep-ball accuracy—

awaiting

Pressure-to-sack—

awaiting

3rd-down EPA—

awaiting

Red-zone TD rate—

awaiting

Play-action EPA—

awaiting

Scramble EPA—

awaiting

Turnover-worthy play rate—

awaiting

wepa_passing0.59Elite (≥p90) (n=94)Elite (≥p90) (n=106)Elite (≥p90) (n=200)

wepa_rushing0.34Mid (p50–p75) (n=72)Elite (≥p90) (n=68)High (p75–p90) (n=140)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics

Jayden MaiavaUSCDrew MestemakerNorth Texas· 87% simFernando MendozaIndiana· 82% simJC FrenchGeorgia Southern· 81% sim

Pass yards

98
Maiava

100
Mestemaker

92
Mendoza

77
French

Yards / att

95
Maiava

98
Mestemaker

97
Mendoza

63
French

Fumbles lost

91
Maiava

66
Mestemaker

91
Mendoza

66
French

Pass TDs

85
Maiava

99
Mestemaker

100
Mendoza

77
French

Completion %

75
Maiava

90
Mestemaker

98
Mendoza

62
French

Rush TDs

74
Maiava

68
Mestemaker

78
Mendoza

74
French

Rush yards

57
Maiava

41
Mestemaker

68
Mendoza

72
French

Interceptions

14
Maiava

22
Mestemaker

56
Mendoza

32
French

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Pocket Passer

Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Joey Aguilar’s 2025 season.

Joey Aguilar

60%match

Tennessee · 2025

Carson Beck

Georgia · 2023

NFL Rd 3 · Pk 1

58%

Kurtis Rourke

Ohio · 2022

All-MACNFL Rd 7

58%

Cameron Ward

Miami · 2024

All-ACC

56%

Michael Penix Jr.

Washington · 2023

Maxwell1st-team All-AmericanNFL Rd 1 · Pk 8

54%

Matches Joey on

Height

Yards / attempt

Differs from Joey on

Total pass EPA (college ability) (higher)

EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)

Rush yards / carry (higher)

Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Amari Odom’s path through Kennesaw State.

Amari Odom

90%match

Kennesaw State · 2025

All-Conference USA

Drew Mestemaker

North Texas · 2025

BurlsworthAll-AAC

82%

Dante Moore

Oregon · 2025

All-Big Ten

80%

Desmond Ridder

Cincinnati · 2021

All-AACNFL Rd 3 · Pk 10

78%

Dustin Crum

Kent State · 2021

All-MAC

78%

Matches Amari on

Height

Yards per attempt

Completion %

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Carson Beck's junior season at Georgia (2023).

Carson Beck

63%match

Georgia · 2023

All-ACCNFL Rd 3 · Pk 1

Kurtis Rourke

Ohio · 2022

All-Big TenNFL Rd 7

60%

Joey Aguilar

Tennessee · 2025

All-Sun Belt

60%

Drake Maye

North Carolina · 2023

All-ACCNFL Rd 1 · Pk 3

57%

Jaxson Dart

Ole Miss · 2023

NFL Rd 1 · Pk 25

51%

Matches Carson on

Total pass EPA (college ability)

Differs from Carson on

Class year (lower)

INT rate (higher)

Completion % (lower)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Lincoln Riley

Pass share

50.4%

420 pass / 414 run

Plays / game

64.2

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

3.8%

313 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

1 coach

2023

Lincoln Riley

USC

2024

Lincoln Riley

USC

2025

Lincoln Riley

USC

Played his entire career under Lincoln Riley.

HometownLas Vegas, NV

Height6'4"

Weight230 lb

Class3

PositionQB

Jersey14

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

3 entries

🥈

ALL-CONFERENCE · 1ST TEAM

All-Conf 1st team (2025)

All-Big Ten

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

All-Conference

3 all-conference honors

Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season	Honor	Scope	Team / Selector	Context
2025	All-Big Ten	all_conference	USC \| Big Ten	QB
2025	All-Big Ten	all_conference	Big Ten	--
2023	All-Mountain West	all_conference	UNLV \| Mountain West	QB

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season	Team	Role	Latest Model	Forecast	Win	Finalist	Official Finish	Points	Context
2024	USC	QB3	#80	#79	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W16 snapshot \| Big Ten
2023	UNLV	QB3	#111	#159	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W19 snapshot \| Mountain West
2022	UNLV	QB3	#2410	#2606	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W20 snapshot \| Mountain West

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season	Team	Conference	Pos	Class	Bio
2025	USC	Big Ten	QB	3	No. 14 \| 6-4 \| 230 lb \| Las Vegas, NV
2024	USC	Big Ten	QB	3	No. 14 \| 6-4 \| 230 lb \| Las Vegas, NV
2023	UNLV	Mountain West	QB	3	No. 14 \| 6-4 \| 230 lb \| Las Vegas, NV
2022	UNLV	Mountain West	QB	3	No. 14 \| 6-4 \| 230 lb \| Las Vegas, NV

Jayden Maiava

R07 · Impact starter

+20%

Identity & Role

Recruiting Pedigree

Transfer Arc

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

The Room on Jayden Maiava

How rival fanbases talk about Jayden Maiava

WEPA per dropback

Why this is a two-channel quarterback case

2025 Season · Final

QB season snapshot

What kind of player is this?

2025 Season · Final

Traditional Stats

Advanced Metrics

Player Standing

Percentile Card

Advanced Savant

The Pocket Passer

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Trophy Case · Detail

3 all-conference honors

Honors Timeline

Heisman By Year

Roster Timeline