cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Jaxon Howard /Minnesota

Jaxon Howard

DL · Minnesota · So · #1

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

29 TACKLES · 4 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Minnesota for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Minnesota for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Defensive line · Minnesota

Returning around him

  • 44% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
  • 1 Minnesota player drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: -1 net (19 in / 20 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Minnesota · Last season: 8-5 · Talent rank #41 · 2026 recruiting class #49

DL · MINNESOTA · BIG TEN

Jaxon Howard

  • 2
  • #1
  • 6-4 | 250 lb
  • Crystal, MN

CFB Zeitgeist Score

57

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 93rd percentile.

Heisman Heat

#10590

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DEFENSE AWARD

Nagurski

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R04 · Rotational

Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★★
#40 national
CFB
College
2 teams
2023–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionDL
Class2
Jersey1
Measurements6-4 | 250 lb
HometownCrystal, MN
Primary teamMinnesota

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 4-star No. 133 recruit
Composite rating 0.9416 HighSchool
Signed with LSU 2023
Origin Robbinsdale Cooper Minneapolis, MN, USA
Class Profile Context
2023 4-star | 0.9416 No. 133 recruit | HighSchool | LSU
2022 4-star | 0.9809 No. 40 recruit | HighSchool | LSU

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#10590Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#10684Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★★☆

to LSU

Composite

0.9416

#133 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Jaxon Howard

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Jaxon Howard

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

final
Through 13g
29Tackles
5.5Tackles for loss
4Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.4Tackles for loss
0.3Sacks
Final
29Tackles
5.5Tackles for loss
4Sacks

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Jaxon Howard is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Minnesota's defense, with 4.0 sacks, 5.5 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #10590 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 133 recruit

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 29 6 solo | #1415/4942 (71st pct)
TFL 5.5 Backfield disruption | #477/4972 (90th pct)
Sacks 4.0 Pass-rush finish | #169/4972 (97th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-disruption defender against FBS defenders.

High-disruption defender

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
29 71st
SOLO
6 43rd
TFL
5.5 90th
SACK
4.0 97th
QBH
1 44th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 23-10vs Buffalo200.00.00
Wk 2W 66-0vs Northwestern State100.00.00
Wk 3L 14-27@ California100.00.00
Wk 5W 31-28vs Rutgers301.51.00
Wk 6L 3-42@ Ohio State100.00.00
Wk 7W 27-20vs Purdue300.50.00
Wk 8W 24-6vs Nebraska322.02.002 sacks
Wk 9L 3-41@ Iowa200.50.00
Wk 10W 23-20vs Michigan State411.01.00Season-high 4 tackles
Wk 12L 13-42@ Oregon100.00.00
Wk 13L 35-38@ Northwestern210.00.00
Wk 14W 17-7vs Wisconsin320.00.00
BowlW 20-17vs New Mexico300.00.00
Total2965.54.00
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023LSU10-3HC: Brian Kelly · Balanced
2024Minnesota8-5HC: P.J. Fleck · Balanced
2025Minnesota8-5HC: P.J. Fleck · Balanced, slow tempo
SeasonTeam
2025Minnesota2965.54.0------
2024Minnesota940.00.0------
2023LSU310.00.0------
Career3 loaded seasons41115.54.0------
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 0 Coverage disruption
QB pressures 1 Quarterback hurries | #1051/1878 (44th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 29 #1415/4942 71st pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 5.5 #477/4972 90th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 4.0 #169/4972 97th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense QB hurries 1 #1051/1878 44th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 6 #2592/4584 43rd pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home8g2.80.60.50.0
Road5g1.40.10.00.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins8g2.80.60.50.0
Losses5g1.40.10.00.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-77g2.00.30.10.0
Weeks 8+6g2.50.60.50.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the DL cohort

57Solid starter
6 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: sacks (93rd). Strength: tackles for loss (82nd). Concern: solo tackles (11th).

Sacks#169 / 2975 · 93rd pct
4.0defe
Tackles for loss#477 / 2975 · 83rd pct
5.5defe
QB hurries#1007 / 2975 · 55th pct
1defe
Tackles#1415 / 2975 · 52nd pct
29defe
Passes defended#1916 / 2975 · 18th pct
0defe
Solo tackles#2560 / 2975 · 12th pct
6defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · DL · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Jaxon HowardMinnesotaJackson KuwatchMiami (OH)· 59% simMarcAnthony ParkerNavy· 58% simMichael MontgomerySouthern Miss· 58% sim
Sacks
93
Howard
96
Kuwatch
80
Parker
89
Montgomery
Tackles for loss
83
Howard
96
Kuwatch
87
Parker
85
Montgomery
QB hurries
55
Howard
55
Kuwatch
88
Parker
22
Montgomery
Tackles
52
Howard
98
Kuwatch
98
Parker
99
Montgomery
Passes defended
18
Howard
48
Kuwatch
18
Parker
67
Montgomery
Solo tackles
12
Howard
95
Kuwatch
96
Parker
82
Montgomery

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The 3-Tech Penetrator

Disruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield.

IDL

His 2025 production profile sits closest to DJ Wesolak’s 2025 season.

DJ Wesolak

85%match

Missouri State · 2025

#2

Caleb Sandstrom

App State · 2025

85%
#3

Joshua Pierce

North Texas · 2025

81%
#4

Victor Jones

Wyoming · 2021

81%
#5

Caiden Woullard

Miami (OH) · 2022

81%

Matches DJ on

Height
TFL rate
Sack rate

Differs from DJ on

Class year (lower)

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Koron Hayward's junior season at Western Kentucky (2025).

Koron Hayward

90%match

Western Kentucky · 2025

#2

Tyler Thomas

South Alabama · 2025

86%
#3

Adonijah Green

Louisville · 2025

81%
#4

James Schott

Miami (OH) · 2025

80%
#5

Taje McCoy

Oklahoma State · 2025

77%

Matches Koron on

Class year
Weight
TFL rate

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

P.J. Fleck

Pass share

51.7%

397 pass / 371 run

Plays / game

59.1

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

7.3%

302 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced, slow tempo.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

1 coach
2023
P.J. Fleck
Minnesota
2024
P.J. Fleck
Minnesota
2025
P.J. Fleck
Minnesota

Played his entire career under P.J. Fleck.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownCrystal, MN
Height6'4"
Weight250 lb
Class2
PositionDL
Jersey1

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Minnesota DL2 #10590 #10684 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big Ten
2023 LSU DL2 #11042 #10751 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | SEC

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Minnesota Big Ten DL 2 No. 1 | 6-4 | 250 lb | Crystal, MN
2024 Minnesota Big Ten DL 2 No. 1 | 6-4 | 250 lb | Crystal, MN
2023 LSU SEC DL 2 No. 1 | 6-4 | 250 lb | Crystal, MN