CFB Zeitgeist Score
19
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / catch at the 27th percentile.
Jake Johnson
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
149 REC YDS · 16 REC · 1 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to North Carolina for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Tight end · North Carolina
Returning around him
- 16% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- Transfer portal: -11 net (20 in / 31 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
North Carolina · Last season: 4-8 · Talent rank #31 · 2026 recruiting class #41
TE · NORTH CAROLINA · ACC
Jake Johnson
- 3
- #19
- 6-6 | 240 lb
- Athens, GA
Heisman Heat
#3184
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP TE AWARD
Mackey
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2022–2025+7350%
Up 7350% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#29 in market ▼ from #23 · 5 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4-star | 0.9779 | No. 46 recruit | HighSchool | Texas A&M |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Texas A&M
Composite
0.9779
#46 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Jake Johnson
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=1
- Rivals · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Jake Johnson
Only 2 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 6g
149Rec yards
16Receptions
1Rec TDs
Per game
24.8Rec yards
3Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
322.8Rec yards
35Receptions
2Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 149): needs 78.7/game over remaining 7.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 149): needs 121.6/game over remaining 7.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 16): needs 6.3/game over remaining 7.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 16): needs 9.1/game over remaining 7.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 1): needs 1/game over remaining 7.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 1): needs 1.3/game over remaining 7.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Jake Johnson's story is about how role and output meet each other. For North Carolina, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
TE season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
16 72nd
YDS
149 69th
YPR
9.3 46th
TD
1 71st
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 6 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 14-48vs TCU | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Wk 3 | W 41-6vs Richmond | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 4 | L 9-34@ UCF | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 6 | L 10-38vs Clemson | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 | 16 | |
| Wk 12 | L 12-28@ Wake Forest | 5 | 54 | 10.8 | 0 | 19 | Season-high 54 yds |
| Wk 14 | L 19-42@ NC State | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 | |
| Total | 16 | 149 | 8.4 | 1 | 19 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Texas A&M5-7HC: Jimbo Fisher · Balanced
2023Texas A&M7-6HC: Elijah Robinson · Balanced
2025North Carolina4-8HC: Bill Belichick · Balanced, slow tempo
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | North Carolina | 16 | 149 | 9.3 | 1 | -- |
| 2023 | Texas A&M | 24 | 235 | 9.8 | 4 | -- |
| 2022 | Texas A&M | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 41 | 386 | 9.4 | 5 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The tight end's share of the passing offense, which helps distinguish a featured receiving tight end from a secondary option.
A blended usage view that shows how often the offense flows through the tight end compared with other same-level peers.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 16 | #136/475 | 72nd pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 149 | #149/475 | 69th pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 1 | #140/475 | 71st pct | Scoringvs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 9.3 | #259/475 | 46th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Pass share | 12.1% | #51/468 | 89th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 19 | #267/475 | 44th pct | Metricvs FBS TE |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 10.0% | #13/468 | 97th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 9.9% | #25/468 | 95th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | Role share | 7.0% | #27/468 | 94th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS TE |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 5.9% | #44/468 | 91st pct | Early-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 5.8% | #45/468 | 91st pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 2.8% | #249/468 | 47th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #58/468 | 88th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS TE |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Mackey award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 6 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 2.3 | 20.7 | 7.3 | 0.3 |
| Road3g | 3.0 | 29.0 | 9.5 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins1g | 3.0 | 30.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 |
| Losses5g | 2.6 | 23.8 | 8.1 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-74g | 2.5 | 21.2 | 7.4 | 0.2 |
| Weeks 8+2g | 3.0 | 32.0 | 10.4 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the TE cohort
19Below cohort
Concern: long catch (6th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · TE · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Jake JohnsonNorth CarolinaBryce CaufieldOregon State· 71% simHayden HansenFlorida· 69% simLuke LindenmeyerNebraska· 67% sim
Yards / catch
Receptions
Rec TDs
Rec yards
Long catch
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Complete TE
Dual-threat: blocks when needed, catches when needed. Coveted on both sides.
TE
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Keyan Burnett’s 2024 season.
Keyan Burnett
71%match
#2
A.J. Barner
73%
#3
Kyle Morlock
70%
#4
Luke Musgrave
NFL Rd 2 · Pk 11
69%
#5
Lance Mason
All-Big Ten
61%
Matches Keyan on
EPA / play (adj)
Weight
Yards / reception
Differs from Keyan on
Recruiting rating (higher)
Class year (lower)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Jaleel Skinner's senior season at Louisville (2025).
Jaleel Skinner
76%match
#2
Oscar Delp
All-SECNFL Rd 3 · Pk 9
69%
#3
A.J. Barner
68%
#4
Houston Thomas
All-AAC
67%
#5
Austin Stogner
64%
Matches Jaleel on
Height
Yards / reception
Weight
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Bill Belichick
Pass share
51.1%
355 pass / 340 run
Plays / game
57.9
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
8.4%
262 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced, slow tempo.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
2 coaches2022
Mack Brown
North Carolina
2023
Mack Brown
North Carolina
2025era →
Bill Belichick
North Carolina
Coaching transition mid-career: Mack Brown → Bill Belichick. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownAthens, GA
Height6'6"
Weight240 lb
Class3
PositionTE
Jersey19
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamNorth Carolina
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | North Carolina | TE3 | #3184 | #3166 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | ACC |
| 2023 | Texas A&M | TE3 | #770 | #758 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | SEC |
| 2022 | Texas A&M | TE3 | #3663 | #3611 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | SEC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | North Carolina | ACC | TE | 3 | No. 19 | 6-6 | 240 lb | Athens, GA |
| 2024 | North Carolina | ACC | TE | 3 | No. 19 | 6-6 | 240 lb | Athens, GA |
| 2023 | Texas A&M | SEC | TE | 3 | No. 19 | 6-6 | 240 lb | Athens, GA |
| 2022 | Texas A&M | SEC | TE | 3 | No. 19 | 6-6 | 240 lb | Athens, GA |