CFB Zeitgeist Score
64
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 89th percentile.
Jacob Holmes
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
33 TACKLES · 3 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Virginia for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Defensive line · Virginia
Returning around him
- 28% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- Transfer portal: +8 net (30 in / 22 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Virginia · Last season: 11-3 (AP #20) · Talent rank #62 · 2026 recruiting class #58
DL · VIRGINIA · ACC
Jacob Holmes
- 4
- #23
- 6-2 | 290 lb
- Phoenix, AZ
Heisman Heat
#12018
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP DEFENSE AWARD
Nagurski
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8533 | No. 1161 recruit | HighSchool | Fresno State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fresno State -> Virginia | 3-star | 0.8300 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Fresno State
Composite
0.8533
#1161 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Jacob Holmes
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Jacob Holmes
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 12g
33Tackles
6Tackles for loss
3Sacks
Per game
3Tackles
0.5Tackles for loss
0.2Sacks
Projected (13g)
36Tackles
6.5Tackles for loss
3.2Sacks
To hit 80-tackle season (currently 33): needs 47/game over remaining 1.
To hit 100-tackle season (currently 33): needs 67/game over remaining 1.
To hit 6-sack season (currently 3): needs 3/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10-sack season (currently 3): needs 7/game over remaining 1.
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Jacob Holmes is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Virginia's defense, with 3.0 sacks, 6.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-disruption defender against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
33 76th
SOLO
8 50th
TFL
6.0 92nd
SACK
3.0 94th
QBH
4 85th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 48-7vs Coastal Carolina | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 2 | L 31-35@ NC State | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 3 | W 55-16vs William & Mary | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 4 | W 48-20vs Stanford | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 5 | W 46-38vs Florida State | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 8 | W 22-20vs Washington State | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 9 | W 17-16@ North Carolina | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 10 | W 31-21@ California | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 11 | L 9-16vs Wake Forest | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 12 | W 34-17@ Duke | 6 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | — | 0 | Season-high 6 tackles |
| Wk 15 | L 20-27vs Duke | 4 | 1 | 1.5 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Bowl | W 13-7@ Missouri | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 33 | 8 | 6.0 | 3.0 | — | 0 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Fresno State10-4HC: Jeff Tedford · Balanced
2023Fresno State9-4HC: Jeff Tedford · Pass-leaning
2025Virginia11-3HC: Tony Elliott · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Virginia | 33 | 8 | 6.0 | 3.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Fresno State | 17 | 10 | 7.5 | 5.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Fresno State | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 56 | 22 | 13.5 | 8.0 | -- | -- | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 33 | #1194/4942 | 76th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 6.0 | #406/4972 | 92nd pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 3.0 | #292/4972 | 94th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | QB hurries | 4 | #291/1878 | 85th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 8 | #2283/4584 | 50th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Road5g | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins9g | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Losses3g | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the DL cohort
64Solid starter
Elite: sacks (88th). Strength: qb hurries (87th). Concern: passes defended (17th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · DL · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Jacob HolmesVirginiaMarcAnthony ParkerNavy· 66% simEthan WesloskiNorth Texas· 63% simMicah DaveyUTEP· 63% sim
Sacks
QB hurries
Tackles for loss
Tackles
Solo tackles
Passes defended
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Two-Gap Base
Stout at the point of attack; controls his gap and stacks blocks.
IDL
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Dion Washington’s 2025 season.
Dion Washington
92%match
#2
Carmine Bastone
92%
#3
Nathan Burrell
92%
#4
Jamond Gordon
91%
#5
Dion Washington
90%
Matches Dion on
Class year
Height
Weight
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Carmine Bastone's senior season at Northwestern (2025).
Carmine Bastone
91%match
#2
Hale Motu'apuaka
89%
#3
Jacques Bristol
All-MAC
88%
#4
TyQaze Leggs
86%
#5
Gracen Halton
NFL Rd 4
86%
Matches Carmine on
Class year
Height
Weight
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Tony Elliott
Pass share
48.0%
492 pass / 534 run
Plays / game
73.3
14 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
5.0%
337 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Tony Elliott
Virginia
2023
Tony Elliott
Virginia
2025
Tony Elliott
Virginia
Played his entire career under Tony Elliott.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownPhoenix, AZ
Height6'2"
Weight290 lb
Class4
PositionDL
Jersey23
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamVirginia
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Fresno State | DL4 | #12018 | #11896 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2023 | Fresno State | DL4 | #10024 | #10365 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2022 | Fresno State | DL4 | #10274 | #9975 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Virginia | ACC | DL | 4 | No. 23 | 6-2 | 290 lb | Phoenix, AZ |
| 2024 | Fresno State | Mountain West | DL | 4 | No. 23 | 6-2 | 290 lb | Phoenix, AZ |
| 2023 | Fresno State | Mountain West | DL | 4 | No. 23 | 6-2 | 290 lb | Phoenix, AZ |
| 2022 | Fresno State | Mountain West | DL | 4 | No. 23 | 6-2 | 290 lb | Phoenix, AZ |