CFB Zeitgeist Score
39
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 97th percentile.
Jabari Bates
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
192 RUSH YDS · 2 RUSH TD · 27 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to San José State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · San José State
Returning around him
- 59% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- Transfer portal: +1 net (17 in / 16 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
San José State · Last season: 3-9 · Talent rank #109 · 2026 recruiting class #117
RB · SAN JOSÉ STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Jabari Bates
- 3
- #6
- 5-7 | 179 lb
- Compton, CA
Heisman Heat
#2849
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2023–2025+482%
Up 482% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
San José State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8528 | No. 1181 recruit | HighSchool | San José State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to San José State
Composite
0.8528
#1181 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Jabari Bates
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Jabari Bates
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 4g
192Rush yards
27Carries
2Rush TDs
Per game
48Rush yards
7Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
624Rush yards
88Carries
6Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 192): needs 62/game over remaining 9.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 192): needs 89.8/game over remaining 9.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 192): needs 145.3/game over remaining 9.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 0.9/game over remaining 9.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 1.4/game over remaining 9.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 2/game over remaining 9.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Jabari Bates's story is about how role and output meet each other. For San José State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Efficient runner against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
27 46th
YDS
192 53rd
YPC
7.1 93rd
TD
2 67th
Receiving
REC
1 16th
YDS
12 21st
YPR
12.0 88th
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 4 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 14-16vs Central Michigan | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 2 | L 7-38@ Texas | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 | 13 | |
| Wk 4 | W 31-28vs Idaho | 11 | 131 | 11.9 | 1 | 87 | Season-high 131 yds |
| Wk 5 | L 29-30@ Stanford | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 | 9 | |
| Total | 27 | 192 | 6.4 | 2 | 87 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023San José State7-6HC: Brent Brennan · Balanced, slow tempo
2025San José State3-9HC: Ken Niumatalolo · Pass-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San José State | 27 | 192 | 7.1 | 2 | -- |
| 2023 | San José State | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 39 | 225 | 5.8 | 2 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San José State | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | San José State | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 192 | #348/735 | 53rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 2 | #247/739 | 67th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 7.1 | #53/735 | 93rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 1 | #467/552 | 16th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 12 | #435/548 | 21st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 14.7% | #186/738 | 75th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 87 | #11/733 | 99th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 27 | #398/739 | 46th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 12 | #365/540 | 33rd pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 12.0 | #65/548 | 88th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return yards | 96 | #57/200 | 72nd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return avg | 16.0 | #132/199 | 34th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick returns | 6 | #49/206 | 77th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 39.1% | #66/738 | 91st pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 20.7% | #126/738 | 83rd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 18.3% | #160/738 | 78th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 14.1% | #206/738 | 72nd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 7.7% | #310/738 | 58th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 2.7% | #563/738 | 24th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 0.8% | #526/738 | 29th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 4 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home2g | 65.5 | 11.9 | 0.5 |
| Road2g | 30.5 | 3.6 | 0.5 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins1g | 131 | 11.9 | 1.0 |
| Losses3g | 20.3 | 3.6 | 0.3 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-74g | 48.0 | 6.4 | 0.5 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
39Mid-pack
Elite: yards / carry (97th). Strength: long run (96th). Concern: carries (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Jabari BatesSan José StateJordan BrunsonMiami (OH)· 51% simQuinton JacksonRice· 46% simBill DavisLouisiana· 46% sim
Yards / carry
Long run
Rush TDs
Rec yards
Rush yards
Receptions
Carries
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Ken Niumatalolo
Pass share
61.1%
486 pass / 310 run
Plays / game
66.3
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
2.1%
420 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Pass-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
2 coaches2023
Brent Brennan
San José State
2025era →
Ken Niumatalolo
San José State
Coaching transition mid-career: Brent Brennan → Ken Niumatalolo. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownCompton, CA
Height5'7"
Weight179 lb
Class3
PositionRB
Jersey6
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamSan José State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | San José State | RB3 | #2849 | #2730 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2023 | San José State | RB3 | #1676 | #1584 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2022 | San José State | RB3 | #3438 | #3262 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San José State | Mountain West | RB | 3 | No. 6 | 5-7 | 179 lb | Compton, CA |
| 2024 | San José State | Mountain West | RB | 3 | No. 6 | 5-7 | 179 lb | Compton, CA |
| 2023 | San José State | Mountain West | RB | 3 | No. 6 | 5-7 | 179 lb | Compton, CA |
| 2022 | San José State | Mountain West | RB | 3 | No. 6 | 5-7 | 179 lb | Compton, CA |