cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Hunter Osborne /Virginia

Hunter Osborne

DL · Virginia · Jr · #15

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

16 TACKLES · 1 SACKS

2026 TRANSFERTransferred Virginia → Arkansas for 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to Arkansas

2025Virginia
2026Arkansas

DL · VIRGINIA · ACC

Hunter Osborne

  • 3
  • #15
  • 6-4 | 301 lb
  • Trussville, AL

CFB Zeitgeist Score

43

Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 63rd percentile.

Heisman Heat

#6309

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DEFENSE AWARD

Nagurski

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R05 · Part-time starter

Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★★
#183 national
CFB
College
2 teams
2024–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionDL
Class3
Jersey15
Measurements6-4 | 301 lb
HometownTrussville, AL
Primary teamVirginia

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 4-star No. 183 recruit
Composite rating 0.9281 HighSchool
Signed with Alabama 2023
Origin Hewitt-Trussville Trussville, AL, USA
Class Profile Context
2023 4-star | 0.9281 No. 183 recruit | HighSchool | Alabama

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 2 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Arkansas 2026
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 6, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 Virginia -> Arkansas 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate
2025 Alabama -> Virginia 3-star | 0.8800 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#6309Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#5990Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★★☆

to Alabama

Composite

0.9281

#183 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Hunter Osborne

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Hunter Osborne

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 9g
16Tackles
2.5Tackles for loss
1Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.3Tackles for loss
0.1Sacks
Projected (13g)
23Tackles
3.6Tackles for loss
1.4Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 16): needs 16/game over remaining 4.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 16): needs 21/game over remaining 4.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 1): needs 1.2/game over remaining 4.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 1): needs 2.2/game over remaining 4.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Hunter Osborne is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Virginia's defense, with 1.0 sacks, 2.5 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #6309 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 183 recruit

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 16 4 solo | #2295/4942 (54th pct)
TFL 2.5 Backfield disruption | #1236/4972 (75th pct)
Sacks 1.0 Pass-rush finish | #872/4972 (82nd pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Defensive contributor against FBS defenders.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
16 54th
SOLO
4 34th
TFL
2.5 75th
SACK
1.0 82nd
QBH
2 66th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 9 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 48-7vs Coastal Carolina110.00.00
Wk 2L 31-35@ NC State100.50.00
Wk 4W 48-20vs Stanford410.50.00Season-high 4 tackles
Wk 5W 46-38vs Florida State300.00.00
Wk 6W 30-27@ Louisville111.01.00
Wk 8W 22-20vs Washington State100.50.00
Wk 10W 31-21@ California110.00.00
Wk 12W 34-17@ Duke100.00.00
Wk 15L 20-27vs Duke300.00.00
Total1642.51.00
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2024Alabama9-4HC: Kalen DeBoer · Run-leaning
2025Virginia11-3HC: Tony Elliott · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Virginia1642.51.0------
2024Alabama3--0.00.01----
Career2 loaded seasons1942.51.01----
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 0 Coverage disruption
QB pressures 2 Quarterback hurries | #647/1878 (66th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 16 #2295/4942 54th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 2.5 #1236/4972 75th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 1.0 #872/4972 82nd pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense QB hurries 2 #647/1878 66th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 4 #3005/4584 34th pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 9 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home5g2.40.20.00.0
Road4g1.00.40.20.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins7g1.70.30.10.0
Losses2g2.00.20.00.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-75g2.00.40.20.0
Weeks 8+4g1.50.10.00.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the DL cohort

43Mid-pack
6 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: solo tackles (4th).

QB hurries#634 / 2975 · 72nd pct
2defe
Sacks#847 / 2975 · 63rd pct
1.0defe
Tackles for loss#1222 / 2975 · 56th pct
2.5defe
Tackles#2295 / 2975 · 21st pct
16defe
Passes defended#1916 / 2975 · 18th pct
0defe
Solo tackles#2803 / 2975 · 4th pct
4defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · DL · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Hunter OsborneVirginiaMarcAnthony ParkerNavy· 49% simMicah DaveyUTEP· 48% simDaniel WingateMaryland· 47% sim
QB hurries
72
Osborne
88
Parker
82
Davey
72
Wingate
Sacks
63
Osborne
80
Parker
63
Davey
74
Wingate
Tackles for loss
56
Osborne
87
Parker
91
Davey
87
Wingate
Tackles
21
Osborne
98
Parker
99
Davey
98
Wingate
Passes defended
18
Osborne
18
Parker
18
Davey
48
Wingate
Solo tackles
4
Osborne
96
Parker
99
Davey
99
Wingate

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Two-Gap Base

Stout at the point of attack; controls his gap and stacks blocks.

IDL

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Nathan Pickering’s 2022 season.

Nathan Pickering

91%match

Mississippi State · 2022

#2

Jay Kakiva

San José State · 2023

91%
#3

Christen Miller

Georgia · 2025

NFL Rd 2 · Pk 10
90%
#4

Jamaal Whyce

Marshall · 2025

90%
#5

Jalen Williams

Southern Miss · 2022

88%

Matches Nathan on

Weight
Height
TFL rate

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Preston Carr's sophomore season at East Carolina (2025).

Preston Carr

90%match

East Carolina · 2025

#2

Christen Miller

Georgia · 2024

NFL Rd 2 · Pk 10
88%
#3

James Smith

Alabama · 2024

All-AAC
86%
#4

Cohen Fuller

UNLV · 2025

84%
#5

Bear Alexander

USC · 2023

All-Big Ten
84%

Matches Preston on

Class year
Weight
Sack rate

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Tony Elliott

Pass share

48.0%

492 pass / 534 run

Plays / game

73.3

14 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

5.0%

337 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025

1 coach
2024
Tony Elliott
Virginia
2025
Tony Elliott
Virginia

Played his entire career under Tony Elliott.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownTrussville, AL
Height6'4"
Weight301 lb
Class3
PositionDL
Jersey15

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Alabama DL3 #6309 #5990 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | SEC
2023 Alabama DL3 #5860 #5597 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | SEC

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Virginia ACC DL 3 No. 15 | 6-4 | 301 lb | Trussville, AL
2024 Alabama SEC DL 3 No. 15 | 6-4 | 301 lb | Trussville, AL
2023 Alabama SEC DL 3 No. 15 | 6-4 | 301 lb | Trussville, AL