CFB Zeitgeist QB Score
Awaiting
Harrison Bailey
Limited signal — not enough coverage for a story yet.
2026 Outlook
Returning to Florida for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Quarterback · Florida
Returning around him
- 55% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 7 Florida players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -9 net (27 in / 36 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Florida · Last season: 4-8 (AP #13) · Talent rank #12 · 2026 recruiting class #7
QB · FLORIDA · SEC
Harrison Bailey
- 4
- #15
- 6-4 | 237 lb
- Marietta, GA
Heisman Heat
#204
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 0 · Not on teamR01 · Scout team / redshirt
Scout team / redshirt. Developing behind the depth chart.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2021–2024+1319%
Up 1319% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
3 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 4-star | 0.9555 | No. 99 recruit | HighSchool | Tennessee |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Louisville -> Florida | 3-star | 0.8400 | Immediate |
| 2023 | UNLV -> Louisville | 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate |
| 2022 | Tennessee -> UNLV | 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Tennessee
Composite
0.9555
#99 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Harrison Bailey
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Harrison Bailey
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Scenario Explorer
Available for players with a qualifying signature metric (passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks, etc.). The slider projects how a season finishes if the current pace holds.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Harrison Bailey's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Florida, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2024 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2024 season snapshot | final
2024 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Highly efficient | Pocket-leaning against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2024 Season · Final
2024 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
24 45th
ATT
33 44th
CMP%
72.7% 88th
Y/A
6.9 52nd
Passing Production
YDS
227 42nd
TD
3 57th
INT
0 100th
Rushing
CAR
2 14th
YDS
17 38th
YPC
8.5 94th
TD
0 44th
Game Log
Week-by-week box
No per-game rows for this season yet — the table fills in as box scores arrive.
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021Tennessee7-5HC: Josh Heupel · Run-heavy, fast tempo
2022UNLV5-7HC: Marcus Arroyo · Balanced
2023Louisville10-4HC: Jeff Brohm · Run-leaning
2024Louisville9-4HC: Jeff Brohm · Balanced
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Louisville | 24 | 33 | 72.7% | 227 | 6.9 | 3 | 0 | 160.5 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Louisville | 3 | 5 | 60.0% | 51 | 10.2 | 1 | 0 | 211.7 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | UNLV | 30 | 58 | 51.7% | 318 | 5.5 | 2 | 1 | 105.7 | -- | -- |
| 2021 | Tennessee | 3 | 7 | 42.9% | 16 | 2.3 | 0 | 0 | 62.1 | -- | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 60 | 103 | 58.3% | 612 | 5.9 | 6 | 1 | 125.4 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Louisville | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | Louisville | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | UNLV | 15 | -1 | -0.1 | 1 | -- |
| 2021 | Tennessee | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 21 | 24 | 1.1 | 2 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 227 | #221/382 | 42nd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 3 | #178/407 | 57th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 24 | #213/383 | 45th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 72.7% | #47/383 | 88th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 6.9 | #186/382 | 52nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 17 | #255/408 | 38th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 22.5% | #207/428 | 52nd pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 33 | #228/407 | 44th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 0 | #1/407 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 13 | #243/391 | 38th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 8.5 | #26/407 | 94th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 2 | #350/408 | 14th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #230/408 | 44th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 45.0% | #192/428 | 55th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 44.8% | #171/428 | 60th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 44.4% | #166/428 | 61st pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 16.7% | #213/428 | 50th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 16.0% | #220/428 | 49th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 15.4% | #235/428 | 45th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 2.9% | #338/428 | 21st pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits
Per-game splits
Splits fill in once box scores from at least three games land for this season.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Billy Napier
Pass share
49.4%
372 pass / 381 run
Plays / game
62.8
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.1%
311 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2024
2 coaches2021
Dan Mullen
Florida
2022era →
Billy Napier
Florida
2023
Billy Napier
Florida
2024
Billy Napier
Florida
Coaching transition mid-career: Dan Mullen → Billy Napier. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownMarietta, GA
Height6'4"
Weight237 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey15
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamFlorida
ConferenceSEC
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Louisville | QB4 | #204 | #189 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | ACC |
| 2023 | Louisville | QB4 | #366 | #270 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | ACC |
| 2022 | UNLV | QB4 | #1296 | #1504 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2021 | Tennessee | QB4 | #1108 | #1034 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | SEC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida | SEC | QB | 4 | No. 15 | 6-4 | 237 lb | Marietta, GA |
| 2024 | Louisville | ACC | QB | 4 | No. 15 | 6-4 | 237 lb | Marietta, GA |
| 2023 | Louisville | ACC | QB | 4 | No. 15 | 6-4 | 237 lb | Marietta, GA |
| 2022 | UNLV | Mountain West | QB | 4 | No. 15 | 6-4 | 237 lb | Marietta, GA |
| 2021 | Tennessee | SEC | QB | 4 | No. 15 | 6-4 | 237 lb | Marietta, GA |