CFB Zeitgeist Score
54
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 63rd percentile.
Grady Kelly
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
25 TACKLES · 1 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Michigan State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Defensive line · Michigan State
Returning around him
- 69% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 2 Michigan State players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -18 net (28 in / 46 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Michigan State · Last season: 4-8 · Talent rank #38 · 2026 recruiting class #57
DL · MICHIGAN STATE · BIG TEN
Grady Kelly
- 4
- #16
- 6-2 | 295 lb
- Navarre, FL
Heisman Heat
#13436
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP DEFENSE AWARD
Nagurski
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 1 · 2-deepR04 · Rotational
Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-star | 0.8259 | No. 1855 recruit | HighSchool | Colorado State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida State -> Michigan State | 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate |
| 2024 | Colorado State -> Florida State | 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Colorado State
Composite
0.8259
#1855 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Grady Kelly
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Grady Kelly
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 10g
25Tackles
3.5Tackles for loss
1Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.3Tackles for loss
0.1Sacks
Projected (13g)
32Tackles
4.5Tackles for loss
1.3Sacks
To hit 80-tackle season (currently 25): needs 18.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 100-tackle season (currently 25): needs 25/game over remaining 3.
To hit 6-sack season (currently 1): needs 1.7/game over remaining 3.
To hit 10-sack season (currently 1): needs 3/game over remaining 3.
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Grady Kelly is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Michigan State's defense, with 1.0 sacks, 3.5 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Defensive contributor against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
25 66th
SOLO
7 48th
TFL
3.5 83rd
SACK
1.0 82nd
QBH
1 44th
Coverage & Takeaways
PD
2 64th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 10 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 23-6vs Western Michigan | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 2 | W 42-40vs Boston College | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 3 | W 41-24vs Youngstown State | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 4 | L 31-45@ USC | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 7 | L 13-38vs UCLA | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 9 | L 20-31vs Michigan | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 10 | L 20-23@ Minnesota | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 12 | L 10-28vs Penn State | 6 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | — | 0 | Season-high 6 tackles |
| Wk 13 | L 17-20@ Iowa | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 14 | W 38-28vs Maryland | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 25 | 7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | — | 2 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021Colorado State3-9HC: Steve Addazio · Run-leaning, fast tempo
2022Colorado State3-9HC: Jay Norvell · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2023Colorado State5-7HC: Jay Norvell · Pass-leaning
2025Michigan State4-8HC: Jonathan Smith · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan State | 25 | 7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Colorado State | 35 | 10 | 6.5 | 1.5 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Colorado State | 43 | 13 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2 | -- | -- |
| 2021 | Colorado State | 1 | -- | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 104 | 30 | 12.5 | 3.5 | 4 | -- | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 25 | #1667/4942 | 66th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 3.5 | #869/4972 | 83rd pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 1.0 | #872/4972 | 82nd pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Pass breakups | 2 | #792/2184 | 64th pct | Coveragevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | QB hurries | 1 | #1051/1878 | 44th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 7 | #2403/4584 | 48th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Fumbles recovered | 1 | #103/736 | 86th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/773 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 10 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Road3g | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins4g | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Losses6g | 2.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the DL cohort
54Mid-pack
Concern: solo tackles (16th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · DL · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Grady KellyMichigan StateKeaton ThomasBaylor· 61% simColton PharesApp State· 61% simTyler MartinMassachusetts· 61% sim
Tackles for loss
Passes defended
Sacks
QB hurries
Forced fumbles
Tackles
Solo tackles
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Two-Gap Base
Stout at the point of attack; controls his gap and stacks blocks.
IDL
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Dasean Dixon’s 2025 season.
Dasean Dixon
94%match
#2
Anthony Hawkins
90%
#3
T.J. Bollers
90%
#4
Damian Ilalio
89%
#5
Jordan Guerad
All-Conference USA
88%
Matches Dasean on
Class year
Height
Sack rate
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Dierre Kelly's graduate season at Bowling Green (2025).
Dierre Kelly
87%match
#2
Dezmond Tell
86%
#3
TyQaze Leggs
85%
#4
Anthony Franklin
85%
#5
Malcolm Ray
83%
Matches Dierre on
Class year
Height
TFL rate
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jonathan Smith
Pass share
49.7%
378 pass / 382 run
Plays / game
63.3
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.2%
303 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
2 coaches2021
Mel Tucker
Michigan State
2022
Mel Tucker
Michigan State
2023
Mel Tucker
Michigan State
2025era →
Jonathan Smith
Michigan State
Coaching transition mid-career: Mel Tucker → Jonathan Smith. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownNavarre, FL
Height6'2"
Weight295 lb
Class4
PositionDL
Jersey16
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMichigan State
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Florida State | DL4 | #13436 | #13628 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | ACC |
| 2023 | Colorado State | DL4 | #10711 | #11149 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2022 | Colorado State | DL4 | #11483 | #11866 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2021 | Colorado State | DL4 | #12648 | #12642 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan State | Big Ten | DL | 4 | No. 16 | 6-2 | 295 lb | Navarre, FL |
| 2024 | Florida State | ACC | DL | 4 | No. 16 | 6-2 | 295 lb | Navarre, FL |
| 2023 | Colorado State | Mountain West | DL | 4 | No. 16 | 6-2 | 295 lb | Navarre, FL |
| 2022 | Colorado State | Mountain West | DL | 4 | No. 16 | 6-2 | 295 lb | Navarre, FL |
| 2021 | Colorado State | Mountain West | DL | 4 | No. 16 | 6-2 | 295 lb | Navarre, FL |