cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Eli Heidenreich /Navy

Eli Heidenreich

WR · Navy · Sr · #22

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

941 REC YDS · 51 REC · 6 REC TD

2026 NFL DRAFTDrafted by Pittsburgh — Rd 7, Pick 14, #230 overall

Where He Ended Up · NFL

Pittsburgh2026 NFL rookie season

#230Rd 7 · Pick 14
Pittsburgh2026 NFL rookie season

WR · NAVY · AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Eli Heidenreich

  • 4
  • #22
  • 6-0 | 206 lb
  • Pittsburgh, PA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

92

Elite in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 95th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#98

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP WR AWARD

Biletnikoff

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · receiving yards

2023–2025
3822023
6712024
9412025

+146%

Up 146% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
No recruit profile
CFB
College
Navy
2023–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
R7 &middot; #230
Pittsburgh &middot; 2026

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionWR
Class4
Jersey22
Measurements6-0 | 206 lb
HometownPittsburgh, PA
Primary teamNavy

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree Not on file No matched recruiting profile in the loaded archive
Composite rating -- Composite rating unavailable for this player
Signed with -- Commitment history unavailable
Origin -- Hometown and high school unavailable
Class Profile Context
No recruiting profile is on file for this player.

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#98Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#104Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

  • Volume King 1.3% Volume King 2,500+ passing yards, 1,200+ rushing yards, or 900+ receiving yards in a single season (position-appropriate threshold). Held by 1.3% of the 2025 pool. 941 receiving yards — clears the 900-WR volume bar.
  • Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in receiving yards (941).

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

NFL Draft

2026 · Rd 7, Pick 14

#230 overall · Pittsburgh

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Eli Heidenreich

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

61

Mixed Sentiment

Sample 18 mentions
Confidence MEDIUM

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmOwn fans: 18 mentions · belief +22 · "Running back? Receiver? Eli Heidenreich is Navy’s most unique prospect yet &nbsp"Own fans
  • Own fans · n=18

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Eli Heidenreich

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the receiving totals stand

final
Through 13g
941Rec yards
51Receptions
6Rec TDs
Per game
72.4Rec yards
4Receptions
0Rec TDs
Final
941Rec yards
51Receptions
6Rec TDs

✓ Hit 700-yard receiver · finished with 941.

Why the profile pops beyond receiving

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The most interesting thing about Eli Heidenreich is that he shows up in multiple game states. He is a receiver first, but the profile also includes designed touches and return-game juice, which means his value is not limited to a conventional route tree.

Current place #98 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 19.0% Overall usage share
Profile quirk All-purpose load The card should explain why this profile stands out

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

WR season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Receptions 51 6 rec TD | #114/1110 (90th pct)
Receiving yards 941 18.5 per catch | #31/1107 (97th pct)
Scrimmage yards 1,440 Total offensive yardage | #31/1107 (97th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Target magnet | Big-play receiver against FBS receiving peers.

Target magnetBig-play receiver

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Receiving

REC
51 90th
YDS
941 97th
YPR
18.5 91st
TD
6 95th

Rushing

CAR
77 100th
YDS
499 100th
YPC
6.5 72nd
TD
3 100th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppRECYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1W 52-7vs VMI66510.8135
Wk 2W 38-24vs UAB22110.5013
Wk 3W 42-23@ Tulsa24020.0035
Wk 5W 21-13vs Rice24422.0029
Wk 6W 34-31vs Air Force824330.4380Season-high 243 yds
Wk 7W 32-31@ Temple37224.0035
Wk 9W 42-32vs Florida Atlantic22211.0019
Wk 10L 17-31@ North Texas66811.3029
Wk 11L 10-49@ Notre Dame22010.0017
Wk 12W 41-38vs South Florida514629.2082146-yard receiving day
Wk 14W 28-17@ Memphis26432.0046
Wk 16W 17-16vs Army67212.0121
BowlW 35-13@ Cincinnati56412.8126
Total5194118.2682
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023Navy5-7HC: Brian Newberry · Run-heavy, slow tempo
2024Navy10-3HC: Brian Newberry · Run-heavy
2025Navy11-2HC: Brian Newberry · Run-heavy
SeasonTeam
2025Navy5194118.56--
2024Navy3967117.26--
2023Navy1938220.14--
Career3 loaded seasons1091,99418.316--
SeasonTeam
2025Navy77499------
2024Navy65444--54--
2023Navy27214------
Career3 loaded seasons1691,157--54--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Pass share

The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.

Role share

A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Usage 19.0% 42.8% pass-game share | #1/1137 (100th pct)
Return yards 0 0 return TD
Touchdowns 9 Across offense and returns | #56/1111 (95th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Receiving Receptions 51 #114/1110 90th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving yards 941 #31/1107 97th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving TD 6 #56/1111 95th pct Scoringvs FBS WR
Receiving Yards / catch 18.5 #98/1106 91st pct Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Usage Pass share 42.8% #1/1137 100th pct Air-game usagevs FBS WR
Rushing Rushing yards 499 #2/397 100th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Rushing Carries 77 #2/407 100th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Rushing Rushing LONG 25 #45/346 87th pct Metricvs FBS WR
Rushing Yards / carry 6.5 #110/393 72nd pct Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Rushing Rush TD 3 #2/411 100th pct Scoringvs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving LONG 82 #22/1105 98th pct Metricvs FBS WR
Usage Passing-down usage 24.6% #3/1137 100th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS WR
Usage 2nd-down usage 19.8% #4/1137 100th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage 3rd-down usage 19.6% #10/1137 99th pct Money-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Role share 19.0% #3/1137 100th pct Share of team offensevs FBS WR
Usage 1st-down usage 18.2% #2/1137 100th pct Early-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Standard-down usage 17.2% #3/1137 100th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS WR
Usage Rush share 12.3% #5/1137 100th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS WR
Value Rushing WEPA +0.22 #2/8 88th pct Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 70 weighted playsvs FBS WR

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Home7g4.487.618.00.7
Road6g3.354.718.30.2

Win vs Loss

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Wins11g3.977.519.50.5
Losses2g4.044.010.70.0

First half vs Second half

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Weeks 1-77g4.078.418.60.7
Weeks 8+6g3.865.317.60.2

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort

92Elite
7 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rush yards (99th). Strength: rush tds (98th).

Rush yards#2 / 287 · 99th pct
499rush
Rush TDs#2 / 287 · 99th pct
3rush
Long catch#19 / 558 · 96th pct
82rece
Yards / catch#21 / 558 · 96th pct
18.5rece
Rec yards#31 / 558 · 95th pct
941rece
Rec TDs#56 / 558 · 87th pct
6rece
Receptions#114 / 558 · 79th pct
51rece

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · WR · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

wepa_rushing0.22Elite (≥p90) (n=2)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Eli HeidenreichNavyChris Brazzell IITennessee· 91% simCamden BrownGeorgia Southern· 90% simEric McAlisterTCU· 90% sim
Rush yards
99
Heidenreich
Rush TDs
99
Heidenreich
Long catch
96
Heidenreich
86
II
87
Brown
98
McAlister
Yards / catch
96
Heidenreich
87
II
88
Brown
87
McAlister
Rec yards
95
Heidenreich
97
II
98
Brown
99
McAlister
Rec TDs
87
Heidenreich
97
II
100
Brown
98
McAlister
Receptions
79
Heidenreich
91
II
93
Brown
97
McAlister

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Deep Threat

Stretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play.

WR

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jack Sorenson’s 2021 season.

Jack Sorenson

73%match

Miami (OH) · 2021

All-MAC
#2

Reggie Roberson Jr.

SMU · 2020

63%
#3

Tim Jones

Southern Miss · 2020

All-Conference USA
55%
#4

C.J. Daniels

Liberty · 2021

51%
#5

Gunner Romney

BYU · 2020

46%

Matches Jack on

Yards / reception
Total EPA (college ability)

Differs from Jack on

Reception volume (lower)
Weight (higher)
Class year (higher)

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Matthew Golden's junior season at Texas (2024).

Matthew Golden

65%match

Texas · 2024

NFL Rd 1 · Pk 23
#2

Bijan Robinson

Texas · 2022

Doak WalkerConsensus All-AmericanNFL Rd 1 · Pk 8
65%
#3

Tre Harris

Ole Miss · 2023

All-Conference USANFL Rd 2 · Pk 23
63%
#4

Trey Palmer

Nebraska · 2022

All-Big TenNFL Rd 6
62%
#5

Keylon Stokes

Tulsa · 2022

All-AAC
61%

Matches Matthew on

Total EPA (college ability)

Differs from Matthew on

Class year (higher)
EPA / play (adj) (lower)
Yards / reception (higher)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Brian Newberry

Pass share

22.5%

182 pass / 626 run

Plays / game

62.2

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

7.2%

138 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-heavy.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

1 coach
2023
Brian Newberry
Navy
2024
Brian Newberry
Navy
2025
Brian Newberry
Navy

Played his entire career under Brian Newberry.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownPittsburgh, PA
Height6'0"
Weight206 lb
Class4
PositionWR
Jersey22

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Navy WR4 #98 #104 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | American Athletic
2023 Navy WR4 #969 #1415 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | American Athletic
2022 Navy WR4 #4744 #4951 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | American Athletic

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Navy American Athletic WR 4 No. 22 | 6-0 | 206 lb | Pittsburgh, PA
2024 Navy American Athletic WR 4 No. 22 | 6-0 | 206 lb | Pittsburgh, PA
2023 Navy American Athletic WR 4 No. 22 | 6-0 | 206 lb | Pittsburgh, PA
2022 Navy American Athletic WR 4 No. 22 | 6-0 | 206 lb | Pittsburgh, PA