Heisman / Players / Drew Mestemaker /North Texas

Drew Mestemaker

QB · North Texas · Fr · #17

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

4,369 PASS YDS · 34 PASS TD · 89 RUSH YDS

2026 TRANSFERTransferred North Texas → Oklahoma State for 2026As of Jun 22, 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to Oklahoma State

2025North Texas

2026Oklahoma State

View North Texas career stats ↓

QB · NORTH TEXAS · AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Drew Mestemaker

1
#17
6-4 | 211 lb
Austin, TX

CFB Zeitgeist Score

All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by yards / att at the 98th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#952

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP QB AWARD

Davey O'Brien

—

CONSENSUS

All-American

—

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Aura™ · Him Watch the full board →

Hype = tape -13aura tax

Fans rank this player in the 76th percentile of QBs; the tape says 88th — the discourse is fair.

Aura — fan perception76th pctl

Production — on-field88th pctl

n=19 mentions · cohort: QBs · 160 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = wepa_passing

Career Arc

Recruit

—

No recruit profile

CFB

College

North Texas

2025

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted (yet)

Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds

#27 in market ▲ from #41 · 6 books

+35002.8% implied

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionQB

Class1

Jersey17

Measurements6-4 | 211 lb

HometownAustin, TX

Primary teamNorth Texas

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree Not on file No matched recruiting profile in the loaded archive

Composite rating -- Composite rating unavailable for this player

Signed with -- Commitment history unavailable

Origin -- Hometown and high school unavailable

Class	Profile	Context
No recruiting profile is on file for this player.

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file

Latest destination Oklahoma State 2026

Transfer stars 5-star CFBD transfer rating context

Eligibility Immediate Jan 3, 2026

Season	Move	Context
2026	North Texas -> Oklahoma State	5-star \| 0.9800 \| Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16

Current nowcast#952Latest modeled ballot order

Season forecast#818Where the full season sim points

Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy

Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier

Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot

Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

Money Efficiency 0.1%
Volume King 1.3%
Program Benchmark 5.5%

Selector Grid · 2025

AP—

FWAA—

AFCA—

WCFF—

SN—

SI—

NIL Valuation

Market value

NIL Valuation · On3

$2.42M

#12 nationally · Jun 2026

Whisper Rate

$3.50M

per-deal market estimate

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

Belief Meter

Reading The Room

Sample 16 mentions

Confidence LOW

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence map

Own fans · n=17
National · n=5

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the passing totals stand

final

Through 14g

4,369Pass yards

34Pass TDs

9INT

Per game

312.1Pass yards

2Pass TDs

1INT

Final

4,369Pass yards

34Pass TDs

9INT

✓ Hit 3,000-yard season · finished with 4,369.

✓ Hit 4,000-yard season · finished with 4,369.

✓ Hit 25 passing TDs · finished with 34.

✓ Hit 30 passing TDs · finished with 34.

Why this is a two-channel quarterback case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The unusual part of Drew Mestemaker's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For North Texas, he has 4,369 passing yards and 34 touchdown passes, but he also adds 89 rushing yards and 5 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.

Current place #952 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist

Role load 47.2% Overall usage share

Profile quirk Honors spine 2 honors loaded

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

QB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level

Pass yards 4,369 34 TD | 9 INT | #1/382 (100th pct)

Completion rate 68.6% 319/465 completions | #78/383 (80th pct)

Yards/attempt 9.4 Explosiveness through the air | #39/382 (90th pct)

Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-volume passer | Efficient | Vertical threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.

High-volume passerEfficientVertical threat

Passing Efficiency

CMP

319 99th

ATT

465 98th

CMP%

68.6% 80th

Y/A

9.4 90th

Passing Production

YDS

4,369 100th

34 100th

INT

9 12th

Rushing

CAR

57 74th

YDS

89 65th

YPC

1.6 34th

5 86th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 14 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 51-0vs Lamar	24/32	329	3	0	10.3	87.3	3 TD passes
Wk 2	W 33-30@ Western Michigan	18/33	224	2	0	6.8	51.7
Wk 3	W 59-10vs Washington State	24/29	211	4	0	7.3	82.8	4 TD passes
Wk 4	W 45-38@ Army	26/36	249	1	0	6.9	74.3
Wk 5	W 36-22vs South Alabama	14/26	234	1	0	9.0	48.5
Wk 7	L 36-63vs South Florida	30/48	326	2	3	6.8	47.6	3 INTs — rough day
Wk 8	W 55-17vs UTSA	22/35	277	4	0	7.9	68.3	4 TD passes
Wk 9	W 54-20@ Charlotte	37/49	608	4	1	12.4	42.6	Season-high 608 yds
Wk 10	W 31-17vs Navy	19/24	234	0	0	9.8	72.3
Wk 12	W 53-24@ UAB	18/25	298	2	0	11.9	88.2	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 13	W 56-24@ Rice	19/23	469	3	0	20.4	99.2	3 TD passes
Wk 14	W 52-25vs Temple	20/24	366	3	0	15.3	98.8	3 TD passes
Wk 15	L 21-34@ Tulane	21/34	294	2	3	8.6	59.1	3 INTs — rough day
Bowl	W 49-47@ San Diego State	27/47	250	3	2	5.3	70.3
Total		319/465	4369	34	9	9.9	70.8

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2025North Texas12-2HC: Eric Morris · Balanced

Season	Team
2025	North Texas	319	465	68.6%	4,369	9.4	34	9	167.8	--	--
Career	1 loaded season	319	465	68.6%	4,369	9.4	34	9	167.8	--	--

Season	Team
2025	North Texas	57	89	1.6	5	--
Career	1 loaded season	57	89	1.6	5	--

Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context

Passing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.

Role share

How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Rush impact 89 5 rush TD | #142/408 (65th pct)

Usage 47.2% 91.4% pass share | 7.5% rush share | #104/428 (76th pct)

Passing WEPA +0.42 Opponent-adjusted passing value | #20/200 (90th pct)

Open full stat explorer

Group	Metric	Value	Rank	Pct	Why it matters
Passing	Passing yards	4,369	#1/382	100th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Pass TD	34	#2/407	100th pct	Scoringvs FBS QB
Passing	Completions	319	#6/383	99th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Completion %	68.6%	#78/383	80th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Passing	Yards / attempt	9.4	#39/382	90th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing	Rushing yards	89	#142/408	65th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Value	Passing WEPA	+0.42	#20/200	90th pct	Opponent-adjusted passing value \| 440 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Usage	Role share	47.2%	#104/428	76th pct	Share of team offensevs FBS QB
Passing	Attempts	465	#10/407	98th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Interceptions	9	#359/407	12th pct	Turnoversvs FBS QB
Rushing	Carries	57	#108/408	74th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Rushing	Rushing LONG	31	#105/391	73rd pct	Metricvs FBS QB
Rushing	Rush TD	5	#59/408	86th pct	Scoringvs FBS QB
Rushing	Yards / carry	1.6	#269/407	34th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Usage	Pass share	91.4%	#48/428	89th pct	Air-game usagevs FBS QB
Usage	Passing-down usage	57.5%	#116/428	73rd pct	Known-passing sharevs FBS QB
Usage	3rd-down usage	54.5%	#130/428	70th pct	Money-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	2nd-down usage	50.0%	#80/428	82nd pct	Middle-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	Standard-down usage	43.7%	#84/428	81st pct	Base-situation sharevs FBS QB
Usage	1st-down usage	42.7%	#89/428	79th pct	Early-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	Rush share	7.5%	#210/428	51st pct	Ground-game usagevs FBS QB
Value	Rushing WEPA	+0.21	#90/140	36th pct	Opponent-adjusted rushing value \| 34 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Ball Security	Fumbles lost	1	#69/258	74th pct	Turnoversvs FBS QB

ALL-CONF HM

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16

Why he’s here

All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.

What moves him up

A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.

What moves him down

A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.

Accolade streams

Status—Awaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 14 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home7g	282	2.4	9.5	0.4
Road7g	342	2.4	10.3	0.9

Win vs Loss

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Wins12g	312	2.5	10.3	0.2
Losses2g	310	2.0	7.7	3.0

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-77g	260	2.3	7.5	0.7
Weeks 8+7g	364	2.6	12.3	0.6

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

79All-Conference

8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: pass yards (99th). Strength: pass tds (98th). Concern: interceptions (21st).

Pass yards#1 / 183 · 100th pct

4369pass

Pass TDs#2 / 183 · 99th pct

34pass

Yards / att#3 / 183 · 98th pct

9.4pass

Completion %#19 / 183 · 90th pct

68.6%pass

Rush TDs#53 / 183 · 68th pct

5rush

Fumbles lost#32 / 174 · 66th pct

1fumb

Rush yards#108 / 183 · 41st pct

89rush

Interceptions#135 / 183 · 22nd pct

9pass

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)

Where the throws are landing

148/227 (65.2%) · 16 TD · 3 INT

Short

0–9 yds

51%of completions

76 comp5.3 yds avg6 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

31%of completions

46 comp14.3 yds avg4 TD

Deep

20+ yds

18%of completions

26 comp29.5 yds avg6 TD

Overall 65.2% completion on 227 attempts · 26 deep completions averaging 29.5 yds.

EPA / dropback0.420

82th pct

CPOE—

awaiting

Success rate—

awaiting

Explosive rate (20+)—

awaiting

aDOT—

awaiting

Deep-ball accuracy—

awaiting

Pressure-to-sack—

awaiting

3rd-down EPA—

awaiting

Red-zone TD rate—

awaiting

Play-action EPA—

awaiting

Scramble EPA—

awaiting

Turnover-worthy play rate—

awaiting

wepa_passing0.42High (p75–p90) (n=94)Elite (≥p90) (n=106)Elite (≥p90) (n=200)

wepa_rushing0.21Low (p25–p50) (n=72)Low (p25–p50) (n=68)Low (p25–p50) (n=140)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics

Drew MestemakerNorth TexasJayden MaiavaUSC· 87% simJacob ClarkMissouri State· 85% simDante MooreOregon· 84% sim

Pass yards

100
Mestemaker

98
Maiava

88
Clark

93
Moore

Pass TDs

99
Mestemaker

85
Maiava

93
Clark

96
Moore

Yards / att

98
Mestemaker

95
Maiava

90
Clark

91
Moore

Completion %

90
Mestemaker

75
Maiava

73
Clark

98
Moore

Rush TDs

68
Mestemaker

74
Maiava

49
Clark

39
Moore

Fumbles lost

66
Mestemaker

91
Maiava

66
Clark

38
Moore

Rush yards

41
Mestemaker

57
Maiava

15
Clark

57
Moore

Interceptions

22
Mestemaker

14
Maiava

10
Clark

14
Moore

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Pocket Surgeon

High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to CJ Carr’s 2025 season.

CJ Carr

74%match

Notre Dame · 2025

Darian Mensah

Tulane · 2024

71%

Kenny Pickett

Pittsburgh · 2021

Unitas Golden Arm1st-team All-AmericanNFL Rd 1 · Pk 20

63%

Desmond Ridder

Cincinnati · 2021

All-AACNFL Rd 3 · Pk 10

62%

Tyler Van Dyke

Miami · 2021

62%

Matches CJ on

Yards / attempt

Rush yards / carry

TD rate

Through 1 college season, his career arc tracks closest to Dante Moore’s path through Oregon.

Dante Moore

85%match

Oregon · 2025

All-Big Ten

J.J. McCarthy

Michigan · 2023

NFL Rd 1 · Pk 10

85%

Jayden Maiava

USC · 2025

All-Big Ten

82%

CJ Carr

Notre Dame · 2025

78%

Skylar John Thompson

Kansas State · 2021

77%

Matches Dante on

Completion %

Yards per attempt

Height

As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Darian Mensah's sophomore season at Duke (2025).

Darian Mensah

60%match

Duke · 2025

All-ACC

Desmond Ridder

Cincinnati · 2021

All-AACNFL Rd 3 · Pk 10

60%

Amari Odom

Kennesaw State · 2025

All-Conference USA

60%

J.J. McCarthy

Michigan · 2022

NFL Rd 1 · Pk 10

58%

CJ Bailey

NC State · 2025

57%

Matches Darian on

Height

Differs from Darian on

Rush yards / carry (higher)

Total pass EPA (college ability) (lower)

Yards / attempt (higher)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Eric Morris

Pass share

48.5%

475 pass / 504 run

Plays / game

69.9

14 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

5.9%

321 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2025

1 coach

2025

Eric Morris

North Texas

Played his entire career under Eric Morris.

HometownAustin, TX

Height6'4"

Weight211 lb

Class1

PositionQB

Jersey17

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

2 entries

🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2025)

All-AAC

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

All-Conference

1 all-conference honor

Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season	Honor	Scope	Team / Selector	Context
2025	Burlsworth	position_award	North Texas \| Burlsworth	winner \| QB
2025	All-AAC	all_conference	North Texas \| AAC	QB

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season	Team	Role	Latest Model	Forecast	Win	Finalist	Official Finish	Points	Context
2024	North Texas	QB1	#952	#818	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W16 snapshot \| American Athletic

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season	Team	Conference	Pos	Class	Bio
2025	North Texas	American Athletic	QB	1	No. 17 \| 6-4 \| 211 lb \| Austin, TX
2024	North Texas	American Athletic	QB	1	No. 17 \| 6-4 \| 211 lb \| Austin, TX

Drew Mestemaker

R07 · Impact starter

Identity & Role

Recruiting Pedigree

Transfer Arc

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

The Room on Drew Mestemaker

How rival fanbases talk about Drew Mestemaker

Awaiting candidate metric

Why this is a two-channel quarterback case

2025 Season · Final

QB season snapshot

What kind of player is this?

2025 Season · Final

Traditional Stats

Advanced Metrics

Player Standing

Percentile Card

Advanced Savant

The Pocket Surgeon

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Trophy Case · Detail

1 all-conference honor

Honors Timeline

Heisman By Year

Roster Timeline