CFB Zeitgeist Score
82
All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 84th percentile.
Daylan Smothers
The Long Memoryas of 2026-06-22
Daylan Smothers is the NC State name rival fanbases love to root against.
939RUSH YDS6RUSH TD160CARRIES
PERCEPTION ABOVE TAPE · PCTL GAP
-46
perception vs production percentile · 2025
Rival fans bring him up unprompted, and rarely to praise him.
low confidence1 source
Minority viewA vocal minority sees it the other way.
Read the story so far
AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data
2026 Outlook
Returning to NC State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Running back · NC State
Returning around him
- 95% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
- 2 NC State players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -2 net (20 in / 22 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
NC State · Last season: 8-5 · Talent rank #45 · 2026 recruiting class #34
RB · NC STATE · ACC
Daylan Smothers
- 2
- #3
- 5-11 | 195 lb
- Charlotte, NC
Heisman Heat
#2804
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2023–2025+2136%
Up 2136% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4-star | 0.8959 | No. 379 recruit | HighSchool | Oklahoma |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (939).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Oklahoma
Composite
0.8959
#379 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Daylan Smothers
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
67
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=6
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Daylan Smothers
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Receiving TDs
1
count
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #402 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 24th
Why it matters
#402 of 531 All FBS WRs in receiving TDs — 1 TDs on 37 receptions.
Vs cohort
This player 1 (24th)
HIGH · n=37 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving yards (total)#507 / 531
- Yards per reception#529 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 6 vs Campbell — 1 receiving_tds
Result W 56-10
The week the volume broke through — stacked 1 td vs Campbell.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 11g
939Rush yards
160Carries
6Rush TDs
Per game
85.4Rush yards
15Carries
1Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
1,110Rush yards
189Carries
7Rush TDs
✓ Hit 750-yard season · finished with 939.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 939): needs 30.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 939): needs 280.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 6): needs 2/game over remaining 2.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 6): needs 4.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 6): needs 7/game over remaining 2.
Why this is more than a rushing profile
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Daylan Smothers is not a one-lane back. The profile is interesting because the workload spills beyond pure rushing volume: 939 rushing yards, 37 catches, and 0 return yards for NC State. That kind of all-purpose footprint gives the card a much richer story than a basic carry total.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Workhorse | Efficient runner | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
160 93rd
YDS
939 94th
YPC
5.9 83rd
TD
6 89th
Receiving
REC
37 99th
YDS
189 88th
YPR
5.1 27th
TD
1 89th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 24-17vs East Carolina | 22 | 76 | 3.5 | 1 | 19 | |
| Wk 2 | W 35-31vs Virginia | 17 | 140 | 8.2 | 2 | 57 | |
| Wk 3 | W 34-24@ Wake Forest | 24 | 164 | 6.8 | 0 | 42 | Season-high 164 yds |
| Wk 4 | L 33-45@ Duke | 17 | 123 | 7.2 | 1 | 51 | |
| Wk 5 | L 21-23vs Virginia Tech | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 6 | W 56-10vs Campbell | 4 | 123 | 30.8 | 1 | 59 | |
| Wk 7 | L 7-36@ Notre Dame | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 9 | L 34-53@ Pittsburgh | 8 | 86 | 10.8 | 1 | 65 | |
| Wk 12 | L 7-41@ Miami | 7 | -2 | -0.3 | 0 | 4 | |
| Wk 13 | W 21-11vs Florida State | 21 | 84 | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | |
| Wk 14 | W 42-19vs North Carolina | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 | 8 | |
| Total | 160 | 939 | 7.4 | 6 | 65 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Oklahoma10-3HC: Brent Venables · Balanced
2025NC State8-5HC: Dave Doeren · Balanced
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 939 | #48/735 | 94th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 6 | #83/739 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 5.9 | #126/735 | 83rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 37 | #9/552 | 99th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 189 | #68/548 | 88th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.09 | #226/362 | 38th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 157 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 28.8% | #16/738 | 98th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 160 | #56/739 | 93rd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 65 | #81/733 | 89th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 24 | #174/540 | 68th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 5.1 | #403/548 | 27th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 1 | #60/552 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 47.2% | #25/738 | 97th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 44.8% | #1/738 | 100th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 35.6% | #8/738 | 99th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 17.1% | #47/738 | 94th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 16.3% | #145/738 | 80th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 15.0% | #68/738 | 91st pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 11.6% | #11/738 | 99th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 87.0 | 8.9 | 0.7 |
| Road5g | 83.4 | 5.7 | 0.4 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins6g | 103 | 9.3 | 0.7 |
| Losses5g | 64.0 | 5.1 | 0.4 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 106 | 9.2 | 0.7 |
| Weeks 8+4g | 50.0 | 4.3 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
82All-Conference
Elite: receptions (96th). Strength: rush yards (86th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.09Low (p25–p50) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Daylan SmothersNC StateMichael WashingtonArkansas· 92% simBo JacksonOhio State· 91% simNate SheppardDuke· 89% sim
Receptions
Rush yards
Yards / carry
Carries
Rec yards
Long run
Rush TDs
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Satellite Back
Deployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Ulysses Bentley IV’s 2021 season.
Ulysses Bentley IV
76%match
All-AAC
#2
Quincy Craig
74%
#3
Jaydon Blue
NFL Rd 5
73%
#4
Jo'Nathan Silver
72%
#5
Keshawn King
72%
Matches Ulysses on
Receiving share
Yards / carry
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Differs from Ulysses on
Class year (lower)
Recruiting rating (higher)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Quincy Craig's junior season at Arizona (2025).
Quincy Craig
75%match
#2
Joseph Himon II
70%
#3
Tre Wisner
70%
#4
Jekail Middlebrook
All-Conference USA
69%
#5
Qua Ashley
All-Conference USA
67%
Matches Quincy on
Total rush EPA (college ability)
EPA / carry (adj)
Height
Differs from Quincy on
Class year (lower)
Yards / reception (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Dave Doeren
Pass share
49.7%
411 pass / 416 run
Plays / game
63.6
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.5%
307 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
1 coach2023
Dave Doeren
NC State
2025
Dave Doeren
NC State
Played his entire career under Dave Doeren.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownCharlotte, NC
Height5'11"
Weight195 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey3
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamNC State
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.