CFB Zeitgeist Score
43
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 43rd percentile.
David Larkins
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
218 REC YDS · 25 REC · 2 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to App State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Tight end · App State
Returning around him
- 14% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- Transfer portal: -3 net (38 in / 41 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
App State · Last season: 5-8 · Talent rank #79 · 2026 recruiting class #116
TE · APP STATE · SUN BELT
David Larkins
- 4
- #85
- 6-5 | 250 lb
- Cincinnati, OH
Heisman Heat
#4587
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP TE AWARD
Mackey
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2022–2025+627%
Up 627% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
App State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-star | 0.8241 | No. 1912 recruit | HighSchool | App State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to App State
Composite
0.8241
#1912 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on David Larkins
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about David Larkins
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Receiving TDs
2
count
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #302 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 43rd
Why it matters
#302 of 531 All FBS WRs in receiving TDs — 2 TDs on 25 receptions.
Vs cohort
This player 2 (43th)
MODERATE · n=25 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Yards per reception#479 / 531
- Receiving yards (total)#485 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 11 vs Georgia Southern — 1 receiving_tds
Result L 23-25
The week the volume broke through — stacked 1 td vs Georgia Southern.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 10g
218Rec yards
25Receptions
2Rec TDs
Per game
21.8Rec yards
2Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
283.4Rec yards
32Receptions
3Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 218): needs 160.7/game over remaining 3.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 218): needs 260.7/game over remaining 3.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 25): needs 11.7/game over remaining 3.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 25): needs 18.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 2): needs 2/game over remaining 3.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 2): needs 2.7/game over remaining 3.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
David Larkins's story is about how role and output meet each other. For App State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
TE season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
25 84th
YDS
218 79th
YPR
8.7 38th
TD
2 84th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 10 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 34-11@ Charlotte | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 | 17 | |
| Wk 2 | W 20-13vs Lindenwood | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 3 | L 22-38@ Southern Miss | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 5 | L 14-47@ Boise State | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wk 6 | W 27-23vs Oregon State | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 7 | W 41-20@ Georgia State | 1 | 40 | 40.0 | 0 | 40 | |
| Wk 11 | L 23-25vs Georgia Southern | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 | 8 | |
| Wk 13 | W 26-24vs Marshall | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 1 | 19 | |
| Wk 14 | L 29-30vs Arkansas State | 6 | 72 | 12.0 | 0 | 26 | Season-high 72 yds |
| Bowl | L 10-29vs Georgia Southern | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | 7 | |
| Total | 25 | 218 | 10.5 | 2 | 40 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022App State6-6HC: Shawn Clark · Run-leaning
2023App State9-5HC: Shawn Clark · Balanced
2025App State5-8HC: Dowell Loggains · Pass-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The tight end's share of the passing offense, which helps distinguish a featured receiving tight end from a secondary option.
A blended usage view that shows how often the offense flows through the tight end compared with other same-level peers.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 25 | #78/475 | 84th pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 218 | #99/475 | 79th pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 2 | #79/475 | 84th pct | Scoringvs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 8.7 | #296/475 | 38th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Pass share | 8.2% | #134/468 | 72nd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 40 | #70/475 | 85th pct | Metricvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 6.6% | #86/468 | 82nd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 5.3% | #138/468 | 71st pct | Money-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 5.0% | #116/468 | 75th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Role share | 4.4% | #108/468 | 77th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS TE |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 3.8% | #142/468 | 70th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 3.3% | #184/468 | 61st pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #58/468 | 88th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS TE |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Mackey award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 10 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 3.2 | 24.0 | 7.7 | 0.3 |
| Road4g | 1.5 | 18.5 | 14.0 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 1.8 | 21.0 | 16.7 | 0.2 |
| Losses5g | 3.2 | 22.6 | 5.5 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 1.4 | 14.1 | 12.0 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+3g | 5.0 | 39.7 | 7.6 | 0.7 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the TE cohort
43Mid-pack
Concern: yards / catch (18th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · TE · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
David LarkinsApp StateD'Andre RogersTCU· 85% simHayden HansenFlorida· 84% simBryce CaufieldOregon State· 84% sim
Long catch
Receptions
Rec yards
Rec TDs
Yards / catch
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Complete TE
Dual-threat: blocks when needed, catches when needed. Coveted on both sides.
TE
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Johnmichael Gyllenborg’s 2025 season.
Johnmichael Gyllenborg
83%match
#2
Thomas Gordon
81%
#3
Giles Amos
78%
#4
Brandon Crum
77%
#5
Jack Bradley
78%
Matches Johnmichael on
Reception volume
Total EPA (college ability)
EPA / play (adj)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to TJ Banks's senior season at Akron (2023).
TJ Banks
86%match
#2
Johnmichael Gyllenborg
84%
#3
Justin Ball
83%
#4
Joshua Simon
All-Conference USA
80%
#5
Matt Alaimo
80%
Matches TJ on
Total EPA (college ability)
Weight
EPA / play (adj)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Dowell Loggains
Pass share
55.6%
508 pass / 405 run
Plays / game
70.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.7%
389 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Pass-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
2 coaches2022
Shawn Clark
App State
2023
Shawn Clark
App State
2025era →
Dowell Loggains
App State
Coaching transition mid-career: Shawn Clark → Dowell Loggains. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownCincinnati, OH
Height6'5"
Weight250 lb
Class4
PositionTE
Jersey85
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamApp State
ConferenceSun Belt
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | App State | Sun Belt | TE | 4 | No. 85 | 6-5 | 250 lb | Cincinnati, OH |
| 2024 | App State | Sun Belt | TE | 4 | No. 85 | 6-5 | 250 lb | Cincinnati, OH |
| 2023 | App State | Sun Belt | TE | 4 | No. 85 | 6-5 | 250 lb | Cincinnati, OH |
| 2022 | App State | Sun Belt | TE | 4 | No. 85 | 6-5 | 250 lb | Cincinnati, OH |