David Bailey Player Card

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 0 · Not on team

R01 · Scout team / redshirt

Scout team / redshirt. Developing behind the depth chart.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · rushing yards

2021–2023

7522021

61.02022

97.02023

-87%

Sharp dropoff (-87%) — career inflection point.

Career Arc

HS

Recruit

★★★

#1391 national

CFB

College

2 teams

2021–2023

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB

Class4

Jersey26

Measurements6-0 | 235 lb

HometownRidgely, MD

Primary teamTexas A&M

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 1391 recruit

Composite rating 0.8381 HighSchool

Signed with Boston College 2018

Origin North Caroline Ridgely, MD, USA

Class	Profile	Context
2018	3-star \| 0.8381	No. 1391 recruit \| HighSchool \| Boston College

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 2 Programs changed on file

Latest destination Texas A&M 2023

Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context

Eligibility Immediate Apr 23, 2023

Season	Move	Context
2023	Colorado State -> Texas A&M	3-star \| 0.8800 \| Immediate
2021	Boston College -> Colorado State	3-star \| 0.8700 \| TBD

Heisman Lens · 2023 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 19

Current nowcast#927Latest modeled ballot order

Season forecast#828Where the full season sim points

Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy

Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier

Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot

Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP—

FWAA—

AFCA—

WCFF—

SN—

SI—

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Boston College

Composite

0.8381

#1391 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Scenario Explorer

Available for players with a qualifying signature metric (passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks, etc.). The slider projects how a season finishes if the current pace holds.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

David Bailey's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Texas A&M, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #927 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist

Role load 23.4% Overall usage share

Profile quirk Transfer path 2 portal moves

2023 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2023 season snapshot | final

2023 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level

Scrimmage yards 113 97 rush | 16 rec | #440/735 (40th pct)

Rush TD 1 20 carries | #323/739 (56th pct)

Yards/carry 4.9 Per-rush efficiency | #305/735 (59th pct)

Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.

Balanced profile

Rushing

CAR

20 39th

YDS

97 40th

YPC

4.9 59th

TD

1 56th

Receiving

REC

1 16th

YDS

16 26th

YPR

16.0 96th

TD

0 70th

Game Log

Week-by-week box

No per-game rows for this season yet — the table fills in as box scores arrive.

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2021Colorado State3-9HC: Steve Addazio · Run-leaning, fast tempo

2022Colorado State3-9HC: Jay Norvell · Run-leaning, slow tempo

2023Texas A&M7-6HC: Elijah Robinson · Balanced

Season	Team
2023	Texas A&M	20	97	4.8	1	--
2022	Colorado State	20	61	3.0	0	--
2021	Colorado State	197	752	3.8	9	--
Career	3 loaded seasons	237	910	3.8	10	--

Season	Team
2023	Texas A&M	1	16	16.0	0	--
2022	Colorado State	3	-1	-0.3	0	--
2021	Colorado State	15	134	8.9	2	--
Career	3 loaded seasons	19	149	7.8	2	--

Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context

Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work 1 16 rec yds | #467/552 (16th pct)

Usage 23.4% 41.6% rush share | #61/738 (92nd pct)

Rushing WEPA +0.13 Opponent-adjusted rush value | #156/362 (57th pct)

Open full stat explorer

Group	Metric	Value	Rank	Pct	Why it matters
Rushing	Rushing yards	97	#440/735	40th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing	Rush TD	1	#323/739	56th pct	Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing	Yards / carry	4.9	#305/735	59th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receptions	1	#467/552	16th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving yards	16	#408/548	26th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Value	Rushing WEPA	+0.13	#156/362	57th pct	Opponent-adjusted rushing value \| 173 weighted playsvs FBS RB
Usage	Role share	23.4%	#61/738	92nd pct	Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing	Carries	20	#449/739	39th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing	Rushing LONG	19	#413/733	44th pct	Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving LONG	16	#277/540	49th pct	Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving	Yards / catch	16.0	#21/548	96th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving TD	0	#169/552	70th pct	Scoringvs FBS RB
Returns	Kick return avg	7.0	#185/199	8th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Returns	Kick return yards	7	#188/200	6th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Returns	Kick returns	1	#139/206	33rd pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Usage	Rush share	41.6%	#55/738	93rd pct	Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage	1st-down usage	28.5%	#48/738	94th pct	Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	Standard-down usage	28.3%	#51/738	93rd pct	Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage	2nd-down usage	27.7%	#30/738	96th pct	Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	Passing-down usage	14.1%	#82/738	89th pct	Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage	3rd-down usage	8.6%	#263/738	64th pct	Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	Pass share	3.8%	#249/738	66th pct	Air-game usagevs FBS RB

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

Status—Awaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits

Per-game splits

Splits fill in once box scores from at least three games land for this season.

Box-score Savant card waits for a season-stat snapshot above the cohort floor. Returns once enough box-score volume lands.

EPA / dropback—

awaiting

CPOE—

awaiting

Success rate—

awaiting

Explosive rate (20+)—

awaiting

aDOT—

awaiting

Deep-ball accuracy—

awaiting

Pressure-to-sack—

awaiting

3rd-down EPA—

awaiting

Red-zone TD rate—

awaiting

Play-action EPA—

awaiting

Scramble EPA—

awaiting

Turnover-worthy play rate—

awaiting

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator returns once this player clears the Savant metric floor (4+ scored bars).

DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Mike Elko

Pass share

45.8%

407 pass / 482 run

Plays / game

68.4

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

3.8%

286 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2021–2023

2 coaches

2021

Jimbo Fisher

Texas A&M

2022

Jimbo Fisher

Texas A&M

2023

Elijah Robinson

Texas A&M

era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Jimbo Fisher → Elijah Robinson. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

HometownRidgely, MD

Height6'0"

Weight235 lb

Class4

PositionRB

Jersey26

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season	Honor	Scope	Team / Selector	Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season	Team	Role	Latest Model	Forecast	Win	Finalist	Official Finish	Points	Context
2023	Texas A&M	RB4	#927	#828	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W19 snapshot \| SEC
2022	Colorado State	RB4	#3672	#4071	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W20 snapshot \| Mountain West
2021	Colorado State	RB4	#447	#679	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W20 snapshot \| Mountain West

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season	Team	Conference	Pos	Class	Bio
2023	Texas A&M	SEC	RB	4	No. 26 \| 6-0 \| 235 lb \| Ridgely, MD
2022	Colorado State	Mountain West	RB	4	No. 26 \| 6-0 \| 235 lb \| Ridgely, MD
2021	Colorado State	Mountain West	RB	4	No. 26 \| 6-0 \| 235 lb \| Ridgely, MD

David Bailey

R01 · Scout team / redshirt

-87%

Identity & Role

Recruiting Pedigree

Transfer Arc

Heisman Lens · 2023 Season · Final

The Room on David Bailey

How rival fanbases talk about David Bailey

Awaiting candidate metric

What made this player interesting

2023 Season · Final

RB season snapshot

What kind of player is this?

2023 Season · Final

Traditional Stats

Advanced Metrics

Player Standing

Percentile Card

Advanced Savant

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Trophy Case · Detail

No formal honors on the ledger yet

Honors Timeline

Heisman By Year

Roster Timeline