CFB Zeitgeist Score
56
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by passes defended at the 86th percentile.
Dave Herard
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
58 TACKLES · 0 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Western Kentucky for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Defensive back · Western Kentucky
Returning around him
- 33% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
- Transfer portal: -3 net (19 in / 22 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Western Kentucky · Last season: 9-4 · Talent rank #100 · 2026 recruiting class #96
DB · WESTERN KENTUCKY · CONFERENCE USA
Dave Herard
- 4
- #17
- 6-0 | 202 lb
- Fort Lauderdale, FL
Heisman Heat
#13190
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP DB AWARD
Jim Thorpe
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3-star | 0.8485 | No. 1264 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8485
#1264 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Dave Herard
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Dave Herard
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 13g
58Tackles
3Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
4Tackles
0.2Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Final
58Tackles
3Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Dave Herard is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Western Kentucky's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 3.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Coverage splash | High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
58 91st
SOLO
39 95th
TFL
3.0 80th
SACK
0.0 65th
Coverage & Takeaways
PD
4 84th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 41-24vs Sam Houston | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 1 | W 55-6vs North Alabama | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 2 | L 21-45@ Toledo | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 4 | W 31-16vs Nevada | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 5 | W 27-22@ Missouri State | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 6 | W 27-24@ Delaware | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 8 | L 6-25vs Florida International | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 9 | W 28-27@ Louisiana Tech | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 10 | W 35-16vs New Mexico State | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 12 | W 42-26vs Middle Tennessee | 7 | 6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 2 | Season-high 7 tackles |
| Wk 13 | L 10-13@ LSU | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 14 | L 34-37@ Jacksonville State | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Bowl | W 27-16@ Southern Miss | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 58 | 39 | 3.0 | 0.0 | — | 4 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Virginia3-7HC: Tony Elliott · Balanced
2023Virginia3-9HC: Tony Elliott · Run-leaning
2025Western Kentucky9-4HC: Tyson Helton · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Western Kentucky | 58 | 39 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 4 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Virginia | 40 | 25 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Virginia | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 102 | 66 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 6 | -- | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 58 | #433/4942 | 91st pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 3.0 | #1006/4972 | 80th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 0.0 | #1762/4972 | 65th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Pass breakups | 4 | #340/2184 | 84th pct | Coveragevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 39 | #237/4584 | 95th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Fumbles recovered | 1 | #103/736 | 86th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/773 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 4.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| Road7g | 4.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins9g | 4.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Losses4g | 4.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 4.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 4.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the DB cohort
56Solid starter
Elite: solo tackles (91st). Strength: passes defended (85th). Concern: qb hurries (22nd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · DB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Dave HerardWestern KentuckyTahj Ra-ElPurdue· 93% simTyler MartinMassachusetts· 91% simRobert FitzgeraldNorthwestern· 84% sim
Solo tackles
Passes defended
Tackles
Tackles for loss
Forced fumbles
Sacks
QB hurries
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Hybrid Nickel
Moves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB.
S
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jaylen McCollough’s 2023 season.
Jaylen McCollough
90%match
#2
Jakari Foster
All-Conference USA
90%
#3
Christian Ellis
89%
#4
Jake Springer
89%
#5
Anthony Johnson Jr.
87%
Matches Jaylen on
Height
Tackle volume
PD rate
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Jaylen McCollough's senior season at Tennessee (2023).
Jaylen McCollough
98%match
#2
Joseph Charleston
95%
#3
Darian Chestnut
90%
#4
Coen King
90%
#5
Shawn Preston
90%
Matches Jaylen on
Class year
Height
PD rate
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Tyson Helton
Pass share
54.9%
492 pass / 404 run
Plays / game
68.9
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
5.5%
366 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Tyson Helton
Western Kentucky
2023
Tyson Helton
Western Kentucky
2025
Tyson Helton
Western Kentucky
Played his entire career under Tyson Helton.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownFort Lauderdale, FL
Height6'0"
Weight202 lb
Class4
PositionDB
Jersey17
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamWestern Kentucky
ConferenceConference USA
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Western Kentucky | DB4 | #13190 | #13018 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Conference USA |
| 2023 | Virginia | DB4 | #13139 | #13432 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | ACC |
| 2022 | Virginia | DB4 | #11747 | #11726 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | ACC |
| 2021 | Virginia | DB4 | #13112 | #13090 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | ACC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Western Kentucky | Conference USA | DB | 4 | No. 17 | 6-0 | 202 lb | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 2024 | Western Kentucky | Conference USA | DB | 4 | No. 17 | 6-0 | 202 lb | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 2023 | Virginia | ACC | DB | 4 | No. 17 | 6-0 | 202 lb | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 2022 | Virginia | ACC | DB | 4 | No. 17 | 6-0 | 202 lb | Fort Lauderdale, FL |
| 2021 | Virginia | ACC | DB | 4 | No. 17 | 6-0 | 202 lb | Fort Lauderdale, FL |