cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Daniel Lyons /Florida State

Daniel Lyons

DL · Florida State · Jr · #5

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

26 TACKLES · 2 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Florida State for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Florida State for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Defensive line · Florida State

Returning around him

  • 13% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
  • 1 Florida State player drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: -21 net (22 in / 43 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Florida State · Last season: 5-7 (AP #25) · Talent rank #19 · 2026 recruiting class #19

DL · FLORIDA STATE · ACC

Daniel Lyons

  • 3
  • #5
  • 6-4 | 292 lb
  • Miami, FL

CFB Zeitgeist Score

59

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 80th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#13624

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DEFENSE AWARD

Nagurski

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#464 national
CFB
College
Florida State
2022–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionDL
Class3
Jersey5
Measurements6-4 | 292 lb
HometownMiami, FL
Primary teamFlorida State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 464 recruit
Composite rating 0.8859 HighSchool
Signed with Florida State 2022
Origin Homestead Miami, FL, USA
Class Profile Context
2022 3-star | 0.8859 No. 464 recruit | HighSchool | Florida State

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#13624Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#13776Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Florida State

Composite

0.8859

#464 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Daniel Lyons

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Daniel Lyons

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 11g
26Tackles
3.5Tackles for loss
2Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.3Tackles for loss
0.2Sacks
Projected (13g)
31Tackles
4.1Tackles for loss
2.4Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 26): needs 27/game over remaining 2.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 26): needs 37/game over remaining 2.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 2): needs 2/game over remaining 2.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 2): needs 4/game over remaining 2.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Daniel Lyons is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Florida State's defense, with 2.0 sacks, 3.5 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #13624 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Defensive rarity 2.0 sacks | 3.5 TFL

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 26 11 solo | #1609/4942 (67th pct)
TFL 3.5 Backfield disruption | #869/4972 (83rd pct)
Sacks 2.0 Pass-rush finish | #491/4972 (90th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-disruption defender against FBS defenders.

High-disruption defender

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
26 67th
SOLO
11 60th
TFL
3.5 83rd
SACK
2.0 90th
QBH
4 85th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 11 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 31-17vs Alabama211.01.00
Wk 2W 77-3vs East Texas A&M100.50.00
Wk 4W 66-10vs Kent State100.00.00
Wk 5L 38-46@ Virginia400.00.00
Wk 6L 22-28vs Miami321.00.00
Wk 7L 31-34vs Pittsburgh100.50.50
Wk 8L 13-20@ Stanford330.00.00
Wk 11L 10-24@ Clemson110.00.00
Wk 12W 34-14vs Virginia Tech100.00.00
Wk 13L 11-21@ NC State310.00.00
Wk 14L 21-40@ Florida630.50.50Season-high 6 tackles
Total26113.52.00
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Florida State10-3HC: Mike Norvell · Run-leaning
2023Florida State13-1HC: Mike Norvell · Balanced
2025Florida State5-7HC: Mike Norvell · Run-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025Florida State26113.52.0------
2023Florida State1560.00.0------
2022Florida State410.00.0------
Career3 loaded seasons45183.52.0------
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 0 Coverage disruption
QB pressures 4 Quarterback hurries | #291/1878 (85th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 26 #1609/4942 67th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 3.5 #869/4972 83rd pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 2.0 #491/4972 90th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense QB hurries 4 #291/1878 85th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 11 #1855/4584 60th pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 11 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home6g1.50.50.20.0
Road5g3.40.10.10.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins4g1.20.40.20.0
Losses7g3.00.30.10.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-76g2.00.50.20.0
Weeks 8+5g2.80.10.10.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the DL cohort

59Solid starter
6 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: qb hurries (87th). Concern: passes defended (17th).

QB hurries#288 / 2975 · 88th pct
4defe
Sacks#487 / 2975 · 80th pct
2.0defe
Tackles for loss#866 / 2975 · 69th pct
3.5defe
Tackles#1609 / 2975 · 45th pct
26defe
Solo tackles#1855 / 2975 · 35th pct
11defe
Passes defended#1916 / 2975 · 18th pct
0defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · DL · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Daniel LyonsFlorida StateMarcAnthony ParkerNavy· 66% simEthan WesloskiNorth Texas· 64% simMicah DaveyUTEP· 64% sim
QB hurries
88
Lyons
88
Parker
95
Wesloski
82
Davey
Sacks
80
Lyons
80
Parker
74
Wesloski
63
Davey
Tackles for loss
69
Lyons
87
Parker
95
Wesloski
91
Davey
Tackles
45
Lyons
98
Parker
99
Wesloski
99
Davey
Solo tackles
35
Lyons
96
Parker
99
Wesloski
99
Davey
Passes defended
18
Lyons
18
Parker
18
Wesloski
18
Davey

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Two-Gap Base

Stout at the point of attack; controls his gap and stacks blocks.

IDL

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Aliki Vimahi’s 2022 season.

Aliki Vimahi

93%match

Utah · 2022

#2

Markell Utsey

Arkansas · 2021

93%
#3

Jack Sape

Ball State · 2023

92%
#4

Zykeivous Walker

Auburn · 2023

92%
#5

Tawfiq Thomas

Colorado · 2024

89%

Matches Aliki on

Weight
TFL rate
Sack rate

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Sean FitzSimmons's senior season at Pittsburgh (2025).

Sean FitzSimmons

80%match

Pittsburgh · 2025

#2

Marshawn Kneeland

Western Michigan · 2023

All-MACNFL Rd 2 · Pk 24
80%
#3

Trevion Williams

Mississippi State · 2025

72%
#4

Bear Alexander

Oregon · 2025

All-Big Ten
71%
#5

Anthony Jones

UCLA · 2025

70%

Matches Sean on

Class year
Weight
TFL rate

Differs from Sean on

Sack rate (higher)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Mike Norvell

Pass share

40.3%

339 pass / 502 run

Plays / game

70.1

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

8.5%

282 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

1 coach
2022
Mike Norvell
Florida State
2023
Mike Norvell
Florida State
2025
Mike Norvell
Florida State

Played his entire career under Mike Norvell.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownMiami, FL
Height6'4"
Weight292 lb
Class3
PositionDL
Jersey5

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Florida State DL3 #13624 #13776 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | ACC
2023 Florida State DL3 #4160 #3735 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | ACC
2022 Florida State DL3 #8703 #8189 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | ACC

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Florida State ACC DL 3 No. 5 | 6-4 | 292 lb | Miami, FL
2024 Florida State ACC DL 3 No. 5 | 6-4 | 292 lb | Miami, FL
2023 Florida State ACC DL 3 No. 5 | 6-4 | 292 lb | Miami, FL
2022 Florida State ACC DL 3 No. 5 | 6-4 | 292 lb | Miami, FL