CFB Zeitgeist Score
74
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 96th percentile.
Chris Dawn Jr.
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
1,007 REC YDS · 65 REC · 4 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to Texas State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Wide receiver · Texas State
Returning around him
- 93% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
- Transfer portal: -4 net (17 in / 21 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Texas State · Last season: 7-6 · Talent rank #76 · 2026 recruiting class #101
WR · TEXAS STATE · SUN BELT
Chris Dawn Jr.
- 3
- #1
- 5-7 | 170 lb
- Dallas, TX
Heisman Heat
#4340
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2023–2025+1071%
Up 1071% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Texas State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3-star | 0.8492 | No. 1437 recruit | HighSchool | Texas State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Volume King 1.3% Volume King 2,500+ passing yards, 1,200+ rushing yards, or 900+ receiving yards in a single season (position-appropriate threshold). Held by 1.3% of the 2025 pool. 1007 receiving yards — clears the 900-WR volume bar.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Texas State
Composite
0.8492
#1437 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Chris Dawn Jr.
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Chris Dawn Jr.
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per reception
15.5
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #86 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 84th
Why it matters
#86 of 531 All FBS WRs at 15.5 yards per reception (65 catches).
Vs cohort
This player 15.5 (84th)
HIGH · n=65 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving yards (total)#21 / 531
- Receiving TDs#161 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 8 at Marshall — 180 ypr
Result L 37-40
The week the volume broke through — put up 180 yds at Marshall.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 12g
1,007Rec yards
65Receptions
4Rec TDs
Per game
83.9Rec yards
5Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
1,091Rec yards
70Receptions
4Rec TDs
✓ Hit 700-yard receiver · finished with 1,007.
✓ Hit 1,000-yard receiver · finished with 1,007.
✓ Hit 60-catch season · finished with 65.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 65): needs 15/game over remaining 1.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 4): needs 4/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 4): needs 6/game over remaining 1.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Chris Dawn Jr.'s story is about how role and output meet each other. For Texas State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Target magnet against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
65 97th
YDS
1,007 98th
YPR
15.5 79th
TD
4 86th
Rushing
CAR
1 35th
YDS
-2 15th
YPC
-2.0 12th
TD
0 81st
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 52-27vs Eastern Michigan | 5 | 50 | 10.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 TD catches |
| Wk 2 | W 43-36@ UTSA | 2 | 109 | 54.5 | 0 | 56 | |
| Wk 3 | L 15-34@ Arizona State | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wk 6 | L 30-31@ Arkansas State | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 0 | 24 | |
| Wk 7 | L 41-48vs Troy | 7 | 119 | 17.0 | 0 | 35 | |
| Wk 8 | L 37-40@ Marshall | 5 | 180 | 36.0 | 0 | 66 | Season-high 180 yds |
| Wk 10 | L 20-52vs James Madison | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wk 11 | L 39-42@ Louisiana | 7 | 89 | 12.7 | 1 | 40 | |
| Wk 12 | W 41-14@ Southern Miss | 5 | 117 | 23.4 | 1 | 82 | |
| Wk 13 | W 31-14vs UL Monroe | 7 | 60 | 8.6 | 0 | 16 | |
| Wk 14 | W 49-26vs South Alabama | 8 | 154 | 19.3 | 0 | 48 | 154-yard receiving day |
| Bowl | W 41-10vs Rice | 11 | 76 | 6.9 | 2 | 15 | |
| Total | 65 | 1007 | 16.8 | 4 | 82 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Texas State8-5HC: G.J. Kinne · Run-leaning
2025Texas State7-6HC: G.J. Kinne · Run-heavy
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Texas State | 65 | 1,007 | 15.5 | 4 | -- |
| 2023 | Texas State | 9 | 86 | 9.6 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 74 | 1,093 | 14.8 | 4 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Texas State | 1 | -2 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Texas State | -- | -- | 45 | 4 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 1 | -2 | 45 | 4 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 65 | #36/1110 | 97th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 1,007 | #22/1107 | 98th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 4 | #152/1111 | 86th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 15.5 | #232/1106 | 79th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 21.5% | #68/1137 | 94th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Carries | 1 | #264/407 | 35th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #81/411 | 81st pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | -2 | #340/397 | 15th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | -2.0 | #348/393 | 12th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 82 | #22/1105 | 98th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 11.7% | #65/1137 | 94th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 11.7% | #147/1137 | 87th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 9.2% | #131/1137 | 89th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 8.2% | #136/1137 | 88th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 8.0% | #184/1137 | 84th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 6.3% | #524/1137 | 54th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.7% | #239/1137 | 79th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #131/302 | 57th pct | Turnoversvs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 6.7 | 77.5 | 10.8 | 0.3 |
| Road6g | 4.2 | 90.3 | 22.8 | 0.3 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins6g | 6.3 | 94.3 | 20.4 | 0.5 |
| Losses6g | 4.5 | 73.5 | 13.2 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 5.2 | 66.8 | 16.4 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 5.7 | 101 | 17.2 | 0.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
74Solid starter
Elite: long catch (96th). Strength: rec yards (96th). Concern: rush yards (12th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Chris Dawn Jr.Texas StateCooper BarkateDuke· 89% simQue'Sean BrownDuke· 89% simHarrison Wallace IIIOle Miss· 89% sim
Long catch
Rec yards
Receptions
Yards / catch
Rec TDs
Rush TDs
Fumbles lost
Rush yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Slot Technician
Runs precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Que'Sean Brown’s 2025 season.
Que'Sean Brown
75%match
#2
Marcus Bellon
74%
#3
Terrell Vaughn
71%
#4
Erik Brooks
70%
#5
Phillip Brooks III
70%
Matches Que'Sean on
TD rate
Weight
Height
Differs from Que'Sean on
EPA / play (adj) (higher)
Class year (higher)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Malik Murray’s path through East Tennessee State.
Malik Murray
99%match
#2
Julius Young
98%
#3
Keith Corbin
98%
#4
Adrian Hardy
All-Conference USA
95%
#5
Darien Chase
94%
Matches Malik on
Yards per reception
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Javon Robinson's junior season at Georgia State (2025).
Javon Robinson
71%match
#2
Yamir Knight
70%
#3
Alred Luke
67%
#4
Kam Thomas
All-Conference USA
66%
#5
Jaden Barnes
66%
Matches Javon on
TD rate
Reception volume
Differs from Javon on
Yards / reception (higher)
Weight (higher)
EPA / play (adj) (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
G.J. Kinne
Pass share
39.5%
358 pass / 549 run
Plays / game
69.8
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
9.4%
267 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
1 coach2023
G.J. Kinne
Texas State
2025
G.J. Kinne
Texas State
Played his entire career under G.J. Kinne.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownDallas, TX
Height5'7"
Weight170 lb
Class3
PositionWR
Jersey1
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamTexas State
ConferenceSun Belt
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Texas State | WR3 | #4340 | #4396 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Sun Belt |
| 2023 | Texas State | WR3 | #3266 | #3358 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Sun Belt |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Texas State | Sun Belt | WR | 3 | No. 1 | 5-7 | 170 lb | Dallas, TX |
| 2024 | Texas State | Sun Belt | WR | 3 | No. 1 | 5-7 | 170 lb | Dallas, TX |
| 2023 | Texas State | Sun Belt | WR | 3 | No. 1 | 5-7 | 170 lb | Dallas, TX |