CFB Zeitgeist Score
15
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 24th percentile.
Caden Williams
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
243 RUSH YDS · 0 RUSH TD · 56 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Liberty for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Liberty
Returning around him
- 100% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
- Transfer portal: +7 net (26 in / 19 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Liberty · Last season: 4-8 · Talent rank #84 · 2026 recruiting class #86
RB · LIBERTY · CONFERENCE USA
Caden Williams
- 1
- #21
- 5-10 | 210 lb
- Calhoun, GA
Heisman Heat
#1900
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2024–2025+417%
Up 417% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Liberty
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#21 in market ▼ from #18 · 6 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3-star | 0.8453 | No. 1700 recruit | HighSchool | Liberty |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Liberty
Composite
0.8453
#1700 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Caden Williams
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Caden Williams
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 7g
243Rush yards
56Carries
0Rush TDs
Per game
34.7Rush yards
8Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
451.3Rush yards
104Carries
0Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 243): needs 84.5/game over remaining 6.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 243): needs 126.2/game over remaining 6.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 243): needs 209.5/game over remaining 6.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 1.7/game over remaining 6.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 2.5/game over remaining 6.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 3.3/game over remaining 6.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Caden Williams's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Liberty, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
56 61st
YDS
243 58th
YPC
4.3 41st
TD
0 40th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 7 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 28-7vs Maine | 9 | 52 | 5.8 | 0 | 23 | |
| Wk 2 | L 24-34@ Jacksonville State | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 | 25 | |
| Wk 3 | L 13-23@ Bowling Green | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | 16 | |
| Wk 4 | L 13-31vs James Madison | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wk 5 | L 7-21@ Old Dominion | 18 | 85 | 4.7 | 0 | 13 | Season-high 85 yds |
| Wk 7 | W 19-8@ UTEP | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 10 | W 59-30vs Delaware | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Total | 56 | 243 | 4.2 | 0 | 25 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2024Liberty8-4HC: Jamey Chadwell · Run-heavy
2025Liberty4-8HC: Jamey Chadwell · Run-heavy
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 243 | #307/735 | 58th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #447/739 | 40th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.3 | #435/735 | 41st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.04 | #309/362 | 15th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 45 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 12.2% | #244/738 | 67th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 56 | #292/739 | 61st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 25 | #335/733 | 54th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 20.5% | #252/738 | 66th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 15.3% | #224/738 | 70th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 12.6% | #277/738 | 63rd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 11.6% | #282/738 | 62nd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 11.4% | #147/738 | 80th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 9.6% | #217/738 | 71st pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 0.0% | #564/738 | 24th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 2 | #205/256 | 20th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 7 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 19.0 | 2.7 | 0.0 |
| Road4g | 46.5 | 5.3 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins3g | 30.7 | 3.6 | 0.0 |
| Losses4g | 37.8 | 4.7 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 39.8 | 4.6 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+1g | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
15Below cohort
Concern: rush tds (3rd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.04Below (<p25) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Caden WilliamsLibertyRashod DubinionApp State· 53% simAl-Jay HendersonBuffalo· 50% simTae MeadowsTroy· 49% sim
Yards / carry
Long run
Carries
Fumbles lost
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Darrion Dupree’s 2024 season.
Darrion Dupree
84%match
#2
Shadrick Byrd
81%
#3
Rickey Hunt
78%
#4
Malcom Davidson
77%
#5
King Doerue
76%
Matches Darrion on
Height
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Yards / carry
Differs from Darrion on
Recruiting rating (lower)
Through 1 college season, his career arc tracks closest to Gerrid Doaks’s path through Cincinnati.
Gerrid Doaks
99%match
All-AACNFL Rd 7
#2
Rickey Hunt
94%
#3
DeCarlos Brooks
92%
#4
Caleb Komolafe
92%
#5
Ty Son Lawton
91%
Matches Gerrid on
Yards per carry
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Jason Patterson's sophomore season at Kentucky (2025).
Jason Patterson
77%match
#2
Jaylon Glover
76%
#3
Rickey Hunt
75%
#4
Trey Cornist
75%
#5
Zach Evans
74%
Matches Jason on
Weight
Yards / carry
EPA / carry (adj)
Differs from Jason on
Recruiting rating (lower)
Rush TD rate (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jamey Chadwell
Pass share
38.7%
314 pass / 498 run
Plays / game
67.7
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
8.4%
249 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
1 coach2024
Jamey Chadwell
Liberty
2025
Jamey Chadwell
Liberty
Played his entire career under Jamey Chadwell.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownCalhoun, GA
Height5'10"
Weight210 lb
Class1
PositionRB
Jersey21
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamLiberty
ConferenceConference USA
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Liberty | RB1 | #1900 | #1916 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Conference USA |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.