CFB Zeitgeist Score
46
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 67th percentile.
Ca'Lil Valentine
Filling the Shoesas of 2026-06-22
Ca'Lil Valentine is a cornerstone for Illinois — measured against the line he joined.
614RUSH YDS4RUSH TD131CARRIES
PERCEPTION ABOVE TAPE · PCTL GAP
-39
perception vs production percentile · 2025
Read the story so far
AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data
2026 Outlook
Returning to Illinois for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Illinois
Returning around him
- 52% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 3 Illinois players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -8 net (19 in / 27 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Illinois · Last season: 9-4 (AP #23) · Talent rank #64 · 2026 recruiting class #45
RB · ILLINOIS · BIG TEN
Ca'Lil Valentine
- 2
- #5
- 5-11 | 190 lb
- Hayward, CA
Heisman Heat
#556
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2024–2025+190%
Up 190% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
Illinois
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4-star | 0.8950 | No. 407 recruit | HighSchool | Illinois |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (614).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Illinois
Composite
0.8950
#407 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Ca'Lil Valentine
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=2
- National · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Ca'Lil Valentine
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Rushing WEPA per carry
+0.080
EPA
P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries
National rank #51 of 66
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries 23rd
Why it matters
#51 of 66 P4 + Notre Dame RBs by rushing weighted- EPA per carry — +0.080 EPA/carry on 125 carries.
Vs cohort
This player +0.080 (23th)
HIGH · n=125 cohort 66
- Also strong
- Yards per carry#44 / 69
- Rushing yards (total)#38 / 69
Signature Moment
Week 6 at Purdue — 95 ypc
Result W 43-27
The week the volume broke through — put up 95 yds at Purdue.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 13g
614Rush yards
131Carries
4Rush TDs
Per game
47.2Rush yards
10Carries
0Rush TDs
Final
614Rush yards
131Carries
4Rush TDs
Why this is more than a rushing profile
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Ca'Lil Valentine is not a one-lane back. The profile is interesting because the workload spills beyond pure rushing volume: 614 rushing yards, 10 catches, and 186 return yards for Illinois. That kind of all-purpose footprint gives the card a much richer story than a basic carry total.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Workhorse against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
131 88th
YDS
614 85th
YPC
4.7 53rd
TD
4 79th
Receiving
REC
10 61st
YDS
55 52nd
YPR
5.5 33rd
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 52-3vs Western Illinois | 9 | 51 | 5.7 | 0 | 17 | |
| Wk 2 | W 45-19@ Duke | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 1 | 23 | |
| Wk 3 | W 38-0vs Western Michigan | 10 | 63 | 6.3 | 1 | 12 | |
| Wk 4 | L 10-63@ Indiana | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 5 | W 34-32vs USC | 8 | 59 | 7.4 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 6 | W 43-27@ Purdue | 22 | 95 | 4.3 | 1 | 25 | Season-high 95 yds |
| Wk 7 | L 16-34vs Ohio State | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 9 | L 25-42@ Washington | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 10 | W 35-13vs Rutgers | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 12 | W 24-6vs Maryland | 20 | 64 | 3.2 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 13 | L 10-27@ Wisconsin | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 14 | W 20-13vs Northwestern | 14 | 74 | 5.3 | 1 | 20 | |
| Bowl | W 30-28vs Tennessee | 8 | 65 | 8.1 | 0 | 16 | |
| Total | 131 | 614 | 4.7 | 4 | 25 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2024Illinois10-3HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning
2025Illinois9-4HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 614 | #113/735 | 85th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 4 | #154/739 | 79th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.7 | #343/735 | 53rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 10 | #217/552 | 61st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 55 | #263/548 | 52nd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.08 | #247/362 | 32nd pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 125 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 17.5% | #120/738 | 84th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 131 | #90/739 | 88th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 25 | #335/733 | 54th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 18 | #258/540 | 52nd pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 5.5 | #370/548 | 33rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return yards | 186 | #38/200 | 82nd pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick return avg | 20.7 | #70/199 | 65th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Returns | Kick returns | 9 | #34/206 | 84th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 30.8% | #115/738 | 85th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 21.3% | #80/738 | 89th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 19.4% | #142/738 | 81st pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 19.2% | #159/738 | 79th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 12.8% | #113/738 | 85th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 9.4% | #219/738 | 70th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 3.3% | #280/738 | 62nd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 2 | #205/256 | 20th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home8g | 52.4 | 5.1 | 0.2 |
| Road5g | 39.0 | 4.1 | 0.4 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins9g | 61.3 | 5.6 | 0.4 |
| Losses4g | 15.5 | 2.7 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-78g | 49.2 | 5.4 | 0.4 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 44.0 | 3.7 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
46Mid-pack
Concern: fumbles lost (13th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.08Low (p25–p50) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Ca'Lil ValentineIllinoisKamari MoultonIowa· 83% simSire GainesBoise State· 82% simJordan GantAkron· 81% sim
Carries
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Yards / carry
Receptions
Rec yards
Long run
Fumbles lost
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Keenan Phillips’s 2025 season.
Keenan Phillips
84%match
#2
Emmett Johnson
NFL Rd 5
80%
#3
Nate Noel
78%
#4
Demond Claiborne
NFL Rd 6
76%
#5
C.J. Hester
76%
Matches Keenan on
Weight
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Rush TD rate
Differs from Keenan on
Recruiting rating (higher)
Height (higher)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Chuba Hubbard’s path through Oklahoma State.
Chuba Hubbard
93%match
All-Big 12NFL Rd 4
#2
Gerrid Doaks
All-AACNFL Rd 7
91%
#3
Andrew Body
91%
#4
Cyncir Bowers
90%
#5
Clay Thevenin
89%
Matches Chuba on
Yards per carry
Recruiting rating
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to C.J. Hester's sophomore season at Massachusetts (2024).
C.J. Hester
81%match
#2
Anthony Carrie
75%
#3
Nathaniel Jones
73%
#4
DJ Butler
72%
#5
Demond Claiborne
All-ACCNFL Rd 6
69%
Matches C.J. on
Yards / carry
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Yards / reception
Differs from C.J. on
Recruiting rating (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Bret Bielema
Pass share
45.6%
372 pass / 444 run
Plays / game
62.8
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.0%
292 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
1 coach2024
Bret Bielema
Illinois
2025
Bret Bielema
Illinois
Played his entire career under Bret Bielema.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownHayward, CA
Height5'11"
Weight190 lb
Class2
PositionRB
Jersey5
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamIllinois
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Illinois | RB2 | #556 | #517 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big Ten |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.