cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Brett Karhu /New Mexico

Brett Karhu

DE · New Mexico · Sr · #45

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

29 TACKLES · 7.5 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to New Mexico for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to New Mexico for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Defensive end · New Mexico

Returning around him

  • 12% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
  • 1 New Mexico player drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: +1 net (15 in / 14 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

New Mexico · Last season: 9-4 · Talent rank #131 · 2026 recruiting class #138

DE · NEW MEXICO · MOUNTAIN WEST

Brett Karhu

  • 4
  • #45
  • 6-0 | 226 lb
  • Frisco, TX

CFB Zeitgeist Score

81

All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 99th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#11099

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DEFENSE AWARD

Nagurski

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R06 · Starter

Starter. A locked-in starting role.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
No recruit profile
CFB
College
2 teams
2024–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionDE
Class4
Jersey45
Measurements6-0 | 226 lb
HometownFrisco, TX
Primary teamNew Mexico

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree Not on file No matched recruiting profile in the loaded archive
Composite rating -- Composite rating unavailable for this player
Signed with -- Commitment history unavailable
Origin -- Hometown and high school unavailable
Class Profile Context
No recruiting profile is on file for this player.

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#11099Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#11042Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Brett Karhu

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Brett Karhu

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 12g
29Tackles
11Tackles for loss
7.5Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.9Tackles for loss
0.6Sacks
Projected (13g)
31Tackles
11.9Tackles for loss
8.1Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 29): needs 51/game over remaining 1.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 29): needs 71/game over remaining 1.

✓ Hit 6-sack season · finished with 7.5.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 7.5): needs 2.5/game over remaining 1.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Brett Karhu is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on New Mexico's defense, with 7.5 sacks, 11.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #11099 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Transfer path 0 portal moves

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 29 17 solo | #1415/4942 (71st pct)
TFL 11.0 Backfield disruption | #74/4972 (99th pct)
Sacks 7.5 Pass-rush finish | #34/4972 (99th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-disruption defender against FBS defenders.

High-disruption defender

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
29 71st
SOLO
17 73rd
TFL
11.0 99th
SACK
7.5 99th
QBH
5 90th

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
2 64th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1L 17-34@ Michigan531.51.00Season-high 5 tackles
Wk 2W 32-22vs Idaho State200.50.00
Wk 5W 38-20vs New Mexico State111.01.00
Wk 6L 28-35@ San José State110.00.00
Wk 7L 25-41@ Boise State311.50.00
Wk 8W 24-22vs Nevada222.01.00
Wk 9W 33-14vs Utah State110.00.00
Wk 10W 40-35@ UNLV531.01.00
Wk 12W 20-17vs Colorado State211.01.01
Wk 13W 20-3@ Air Force111.01.00
Wk 14W 23-17vs San Diego State311.01.00
BowlL 17-20@ Minnesota320.50.51
Total291711.07.52
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2024Memphis11-2HC: Ryan Silverfield · Balanced, fast tempo
2025New Mexico9-4HC: Jason Eck · Run-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025New Mexico291711.07.52----
2024Memphis1--0.00.0------
Career2 loaded seasons301711.07.52----
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 2 Coverage disruption | #792/2184 (64th pct)
QB pressures 5 Quarterback hurries | #188/1878 (90th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 29 #1415/4942 71st pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 11.0 #74/4972 99th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 7.5 #34/4972 99th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 2 #792/2184 64th pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense QB hurries 5 #188/1878 90th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 17 #1252/4584 73rd pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home6g1.80.90.70.2
Road6g3.00.90.60.2

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins8g2.10.90.80.1
Losses4g3.00.90.40.2

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-76g2.50.80.40.2
Weeks 8+6g2.31.00.80.2

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the DE cohort

81All-Conference
6 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: sacks (98th). Strength: tackles for loss (97th).

Sacks#34 / 2975 · 99th pct
7.5defe
Tackles for loss#74 / 2975 · 97th pct
11.0defe
QB hurries#188 / 2975 · 92nd pct
5defe
Passes defended#777 / 2975 · 67th pct
2defe
Solo tackles#1252 / 2975 · 56th pct
17defe
Tackles#1415 / 2975 · 52nd pct
29defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · DE · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Brett KarhuNew MexicoJohn MillerUtah State· 75% simRasheem BilesPittsburgh· 75% simKeyshaun ElliottArizona State· 74% sim
Sacks
99
Karhu
99
Miller
95
Biles
98
Elliott
Tackles for loss
97
Karhu
96
Miller
100
Biles
99
Elliott
QB hurries
92
Karhu
98
Miller
88
Biles
88
Elliott
Passes defended
67
Karhu
78
Miller
86
Biles
67
Elliott
Solo tackles
56
Karhu
92
Miller
91
Biles
98
Elliott
Tackles
52
Karhu
99
Miller
98
Biles
98
Elliott

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Speed Rusher

Bends the edge and wins with first-step quickness. Lighter frame, relentless motor.

EDGE

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Josaiah Stewart’s 2024 season.

Josaiah Stewart

69%match

Michigan · 2024

All-Big TenNFL Rd 3 · Pk 26
#2

Josaiah Stewart

Coastal Carolina · 2021

All-Sun BeltNFL Rd 3 · Pk 26
53%
#3

Michael Daley

Rice · 2025

52%
#4

Michael Daley

Rice · 2024

51%
#5

Isaac Terrell

Washington State · 2025

49%

Matches Josaiah on

Sack rate
TFL rate
Class year

Differs from Josaiah on

Weight (lower)
Height (lower)

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Daniel Grzesiak's sophomore season at Nevada (2021).

Daniel Grzesiak

67%match

Nevada · 2021

#2

Bryson Jackson

Baylor · 2021

63%
#3

Kyler Laing

Buffalo · 2021

63%
#4

Trumane Bell

UTSA · 2021

62%
#5

Kendy Charles

Liberty · 2021

60%

Matches Daniel on

Class year
TFL rate
Height

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Jason Eck

Pass share

43.3%

350 pass / 459 run

Plays / game

62.2

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

11.3%

293 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025

2 coaches
2024
Bronco Mendenhall
New Mexico
2025
Jason Eck
New Mexico
era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Bronco Mendenhall → Jason Eck. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownFrisco, TX
Height6'0"
Weight226 lb
Class4
PositionDE
Jersey45

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Memphis DE4 #11099 #11042 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | American Athletic

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 New Mexico Mountain West DE 4 No. 45 | 6-0 | 226 lb | Frisco, TX
2024 Memphis American Athletic DE 4 No. 45 | 6-0 | 226 lb | Frisco, TX