cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Brenen Thompson /Mississippi State

Brenen Thompson

WR · Mississippi State · Sr

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

1,054 REC YDS · 57 REC · 6 REC TD

2026 NFL DRAFTDrafted by Los Angeles — Rd 4, Pick 5, #105 overall

Where He Ended Up · NFL

Los Angeles2026 NFL rookie season

#105Rd 4 · Pick 5
Los Angeles2026 NFL rookie season

WR · MISSISSIPPI STATE · SEC

Brenen Thompson

  • 4
  • 5-9 | 170 lb
  • Spearman, TX

CFB Zeitgeist Score

85

All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 98th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#560

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP WR AWARD

Biletnikoff

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · receiving yards

2022–2025
32.02022
2412023
2302024
1,0542025

+3194%

Up 3194% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★★
#131 national
CFB
College
3 teams
2022–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
R4 &middot; #105
Los Angeles &middot; 2026

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionWR
Class4
Jersey--
Measurements5-9 | 170 lb
HometownSpearman, TX
Primary teamMississippi State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 4-star No. 131 recruit
Composite rating 0.9476 HighSchool
Signed with Texas 2022
Origin Spearman Spearman, TX, USA
Class Profile Context
2022 4-star | 0.9476 No. 131 recruit | HighSchool | Texas

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 2 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Mississippi State 2025
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Dec 13, 2024
Season Move Context
2025 Oklahoma -> Mississippi State 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate
2023 Texas -> Oklahoma 4-star | 0.9200 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#560Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#556Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

  • Volume King 1.3% Volume King 2,500+ passing yards, 1,200+ rushing yards, or 900+ receiving yards in a single season (position-appropriate threshold). Held by 1.3% of the 2025 pool. 1054 receiving yards — clears the 900-WR volume bar.
  • Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in receiving yards (1054).

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★★☆

to Texas

Composite

0.9476

#131 national

NFL Draft

2026 · Rd 4, Pick 5

#105 overall · Los Angeles

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Brenen Thompson

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

67

Mixed Sentiment

Sample 3 mentions
Confidence BELOW-FLOOR

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmOwn fans: 5 mentions · belief +42 · "We’ve got quite a few guys going to the draft, but I’m curious to see who you gu"Own fans
  • Own fans · n=5

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Brenen Thompson

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

2025 Signature · 2025 season

Yards per reception

18.5

yds

All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions

National rank #14 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 98th

Why it matters

#14 of 531 All FBS WRs at 18.5 yards per reception (57 catches).

Vs cohort

This player 18.5 (98th)

HIGH · n=57 cohort 531

  • Also strong
  • Receiving yards (total)#13 / 531
  • Receiving TDs#55 / 531

Signature Moment

Week 8 at Florida — 155 ypr

Result L 21-23

The week the volume broke through — put up 155 yds at Florida.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the receiving totals stand

final
Through 13g
1,054Rec yards
57Receptions
6Rec TDs
Per game
81.1Rec yards
4Receptions
0Rec TDs
Final
1,054Rec yards
57Receptions
6Rec TDs

✓ Hit 700-yard receiver · finished with 1,054.

✓ Hit 1,000-yard receiver · finished with 1,054.

Why the profile pops beyond receiving

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The most interesting thing about Brenen Thompson is that he shows up in multiple game states. He is a receiver first, but the profile also includes designed touches and return-game juice, which means his value is not limited to a conventional route tree.

Current place #560 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 8.8% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 131 recruit

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

WR season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Receptions 57 6 rec TD | #78/1110 (93rd pct)
Receiving yards 1,054 18.5 per catch | #13/1107 (99th pct)
Scrimmage yards 1,068 Total offensive yardage | #13/1107 (99th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Target magnet | Big-play receiver against FBS receiving peers.

Target magnetBig-play receiver

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Receiving

REC
57 93rd
YDS
1,054 99th
YPR
18.5 91st
TD
6 95th

Rushing

CAR
4 74th
YDS
14 56th
YPC
3.5 38th
TD
1 96th

Returns

PR YDS
44 49th
PR AVG
44.0 100th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppRECYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1W 34-17@ Southern Miss79213.1051
Wk 2W 24-20vs Arizona State613322.22582 TD catches
Wk 3W 63-0vs Alcorn State25326.5142
Wk 4W 38-10vs Northern Illinois2136.5011
Wk 5L 34-41vs Tennessee33311.0016
Wk 6L 9-31@ Texas A&M25427.0144
Wk 8L 21-23@ Florida715522.1047Season-high 155 yds
Wk 9L 38-45vs Texas67612.72242 TD catches
Wk 10W 38-35@ Arkansas610717.8032
Wk 11L 21-41vs Georgia49223.0057
Wk 12L 27-49@ Missouri26030.0054
Wk 14L 19-38vs Ole Miss68013.3018
BowlL 29-43vs Wake Forest410626.5051
Total57105419.4658
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Texas8-5HC: Steve Sarkisian · Run-leaning
2023Oklahoma10-3HC: Brent Venables · Balanced
2024Oklahoma6-7HC: Brent Venables · Run-leaning
2025Mississippi State5-8HC: Jeff Lebby · Run-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025Mississippi State571,05418.56--
2024Oklahoma1923012.12--
2023Oklahoma724134.42--
2022Texas13232.00--
Career4 loaded seasons841,55718.510--
SeasonTeam
2025Mississippi State414--44--
2024Oklahoma----------
2023Oklahoma----------
2022Texas----------
Career4 loaded seasons414--44--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Pass share

The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.

Role share

A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Usage 8.8% 18.4% pass-game share | #124/1137 (89th pct)
Return yards 44 0 return TD
Touchdowns 7 Across offense and returns | #56/1111 (95th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Receiving Receptions 57 #78/1110 93rd pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving yards 1,054 #13/1107 99th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving TD 6 #56/1111 95th pct Scoringvs FBS WR
Receiving Yards / catch 18.5 #98/1106 91st pct Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Returns Punt return yards 44 #115/224 49th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Usage Pass share 18.4% #124/1137 89th pct Air-game usagevs FBS WR
Rushing Rushing yards 14 #174/397 56th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Rushing Rushing LONG 10 #173/346 50th pct Metricvs FBS WR
Rushing Carries 4 #108/407 74th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Rushing Yards / carry 3.5 #243/393 38th pct Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Rushing Rush TD 1 #19/411 96th pct Scoringvs FBS WR
Receiving Receiving LONG 58 #193/1105 83rd pct Metricvs FBS WR
Returns Punt return avg 44.0 #2/222 100th pct Efficiencyvs FBS WR
Returns Punt returns 1 #182/237 24th pct Volumevs FBS WR
Usage Passing-down usage 10.1% #233/1137 80th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS WR
Usage 3rd-down usage 9.4% #266/1137 77th pct Money-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage 2nd-down usage 8.9% #175/1137 85th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Role share 8.8% #156/1137 86th pct Share of team offensevs FBS WR
Usage 1st-down usage 8.6% #146/1137 87th pct Early-down loadvs FBS WR
Usage Standard-down usage 8.1% #146/1137 87th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS WR
Usage Rush share 0.8% #225/1137 80th pct Ground-game usagevs FBS WR

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Home8g4.173.217.70.6
Road5g4.893.622.00.2

Win vs Loss

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Wins5g4.679.617.20.6
Losses8g4.282.020.70.4

First half vs Second half

REC/gYDS/gYPRTD/g
Weeks 1-77g3.769.119.00.6
Weeks 8+6g5.295.019.80.3

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort

85All-Conference
7 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rec yards (97th). Strength: yards / catch (96th).

Rec yards#13 / 558 · 98th pct
1054rece
Yards / catch#21 / 558 · 96th pct
18.5rece
Rec TDs#56 / 558 · 87th pct
6rece
Receptions#78 / 558 · 85th pct
57rece
Rush TDs#19 / 287 · 85th pct
1rush
Long catch#173 / 558 · 69th pct
58rece
Rush yards#139 / 287 · 51st pct
14rush

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · WR · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Brenen ThompsonMississippi StateChris Brazzell IITennessee· 90% simCamden BrownGeorgia Southern· 89% simWyatt YoungNorth Texas· 88% sim
Rec yards
98
Thompson
97
II
98
Brown
100
Young
Yards / catch
96
Thompson
87
II
88
Brown
95
Young
Rec TDs
87
Thompson
97
II
100
Brown
98
Young
Receptions
85
Thompson
91
II
93
Brown
96
Young
Rush TDs
85
Thompson
85
Young
Long catch
69
Thompson
86
II
87
Brown
97
Young
Rush yards
51
Thompson
55
Young

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Deep Threat

Stretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play.

WR

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Kris Thornton’s 2022 season.

Kris Thornton

69%match

James Madison · 2022

All-Sun Belt
#2

Tahj Washington

Memphis · 2020

NFL Rd 7
53%
#3

Calvin Austin III

Memphis · 2020

NFL Rd 4
52%
#4

Tahj Washington

USC · 2023

NFL Rd 7
58%
#5

Jacob Cowing

UTEP · 2021

All-Conference USANFL Rd 4
57%

Matches Kris on

Yards / reception
Weight
Height

Differs from Kris on

Class year (higher)
Total EPA (college ability) (higher)

Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Will Vereen’s path through South Carolina State.

Will Vereen

97%match

South Carolina State · 2021

#2

Beau Kelly

Portland State · 2022

96%
#3

Tre Nixon

UCF · 2020

NFL Rd 7
96%
#4

Calvin Austin III

Memphis · 2021

NFL Rd 4
95%
#5

Kahtero Summers

Rhode Island · 2023

92%

Matches Will on

Yards per reception

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Mario Williams's senior season at Tulane (2024).

Mario Williams

72%match

Tulane · 2024

All-AAC
#2

Roderick Daniels

SMU · 2024

66%
#3

Tahj Washington

USC · 2023

NFL Rd 7
64%
#4

Dante Wright

Temple · 2024

All-AAC
57%
#5

Kris Mitchell

Florida International · 2023

All-Conference USA
53%

Matches Mario on

Yards / reception
EPA / play (adj)
Weight

Differs from Mario on

Class year (higher)
Recruiting rating (lower)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Jeff Lebby

Pass share

41.8%

390 pass / 543 run

Plays / game

71.8

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

12.7%

308 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

3 coaches
2022
Mike Leach
Mississippi State
2023
Greg Knox
Mississippi State
era →
2024
Jeff Lebby
Mississippi State
era →
2025
Jeff Lebby
Mississippi State

Played under 3 different head coaches: Mike Leach, Greg Knox, and Jeff Lebby. Multi-era developmental context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownSpearman, TX
Height5'9"
Weight170 lb
Class4
PositionWR

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Oklahoma WR4 #560 #556 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | SEC
2023 Oklahoma WR4 #534 #442 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Big 12
2022 Texas WR4 #1510 #1316 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Big 12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Mississippi State SEC WR 4 5-9 | 170 lb | Spearman, TX
2024 Oklahoma SEC WR 4 5-9 | 170 lb | Spearman, TX
2023 Oklahoma Big 12 WR 4 5-9 | 170 lb | Spearman, TX
2022 Texas Big 12 WR 4 5-9 | 170 lb | Spearman, TX