cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Brandon Buckner /Middle Tennessee

Brandon Buckner

LB · Middle Tennessee · Sr · #11

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

35 TACKLES · 4.5 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Middle Tennessee for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Middle Tennessee for 2026

Updated May 27

2026 Depth chart

Returning starter

Linebacker · Middle Tennessee

Returning around him

  • 99% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
  • 1 Middle Tennessee player drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: +1 net (19 in / 18 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Middle Tennessee · Last season: 3-9 · Talent rank #110 · 2026 recruiting class #98

LB · MIDDLE TENNESSEE · CONFERENCE USA

Brandon Buckner

  • 4
  • #11
  • 6-0 | 248 lb
  • Charlotte, NC

CFB Zeitgeist Score

75

All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 95th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#15388

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP LB AWARD

Butkus

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R05 · Part-time starter

Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#785 national
CFB
College
2 teams
2021–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionLB
Class4
Jersey11
Measurements6-0 | 248 lb
HometownCharlotte, NC
Primary teamMiddle Tennessee

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 785 recruit
Composite rating 0.8652 HighSchool
Signed with -- 2021
Origin Chandler Chandler, AZ, USA
Class Profile Context
2021 3-star | 0.8652 No. 785 recruit | HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Middle Tennessee 2023
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Dec 5, 2022
Season Move Context
2023 Oregon -> Middle Tennessee 3-star | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#15388Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#15554Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to —

Composite

0.8652

#785 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Brandon Buckner

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Brandon Buckner

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 11g
35Tackles
6.5Tackles for loss
4.5Sacks
Per game
3Tackles
0.6Tackles for loss
0.4Sacks
Projected (13g)
41Tackles
7.7Tackles for loss
5.3Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 35): needs 22.5/game over remaining 2.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 35): needs 32.5/game over remaining 2.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 4.5): needs 0.8/game over remaining 2.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 4.5): needs 2.8/game over remaining 2.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Brandon Buckner is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Middle Tennessee's defense, with 4.5 sacks, 6.5 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #15388 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Transfer path 1 portal move

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 35 21 solo | #1098/4942 (78th pct)
TFL 6.5 Backfield disruption | #340/4972 (93rd pct)
Sacks 4.5 Pass-rush finish | #136/4972 (97th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-disruption defender against FBS defenders.

High-disruption defender

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
35 78th
SOLO
21 79th
TFL
6.5 93rd
SACK
4.5 97th
QBH
1 44th

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
2 64th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 11 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1L 14-34vs Austin Peay420.00.00
Wk 2L 10-42@ Wisconsin320.00.00
Wk 3W 14-13@ Nevada552.01.00
Wk 4L 28-42vs Marshall540.00.00
Wk 5L 16-24@ Kennesaw State100.00.00
Wk 7L 20-22vs Missouri State211.01.00
Wk 9L 28-31@ Delaware200.50.00
Wk 11L 30-56vs Florida International420.50.51
Wk 12L 26-42@ Western Kentucky742.52.00Season-high 7 tackles
Wk 13W 31-17vs Sam Houston000.00.01
Wk 14W 31-24@ New Mexico State210.00.00
Total35216.54.52
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2021Oregon10-3HC: Bryan McClendon · Run-leaning
2023Middle Tennessee4-8HC: Rick Stockstill · Balanced
2025Middle Tennessee3-9HC: Derek Mason · Pass-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025Middle Tennessee35216.54.52----
2023Middle Tennessee631.01.02----
2021Oregon531.00.0------
Career3 loaded seasons46278.55.54----
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 2 Coverage disruption | #792/2184 (64th pct)
QB pressures 1 Quarterback hurries | #1051/1878 (44th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 35 #1098/4942 78th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 6.5 #340/4972 93rd pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 4.5 #136/4972 97th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 2 #792/2184 64th pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense QB hurries 1 #1051/1878 44th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 21 #959/4584 79th pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Butkus award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 11 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home5g3.00.30.30.4
Road6g3.30.80.50.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins3g2.30.70.30.3
Losses8g3.50.60.40.1

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-76g3.30.50.30.0
Weeks 8+5g3.00.70.50.4

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the LB cohort

75All-Conference
6 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: sacks (94th). Strength: tackles for loss (87th).

Sacks#136 / 2975 · 95th pct
4.5defe
Tackles for loss#340 / 2975 · 87th pct
6.5defe
Passes defended#777 / 2975 · 67th pct
2defe
Solo tackles#959 / 2975 · 67th pct
21defe
Tackles#1098 / 2975 · 62nd pct
35defe
QB hurries#1007 / 2975 · 55th pct
1defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · LB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Brandon BucknerMiddle TennesseeJackson KuwatchMiami (OH)· 79% simTJ DotteryOle Miss· 79% simMichael MontgomerySouthern Miss· 79% sim
Sacks
95
Buckner
96
Kuwatch
74
Dottery
89
Montgomery
Tackles for loss
87
Buckner
96
Kuwatch
83
Dottery
85
Montgomery
Passes defended
67
Buckner
48
Kuwatch
67
Dottery
67
Montgomery
Solo tackles
67
Buckner
95
Kuwatch
97
Dottery
82
Montgomery
Tackles
62
Buckner
98
Kuwatch
98
Dottery
99
Montgomery
QB hurries
55
Buckner
55
Kuwatch
55
Dottery
22
Montgomery

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Thumper

Downhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge.

LB

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jamon Dumas-Johnson’s 2023 season.

Jamon Dumas-Johnson

73%match

Georgia · 2023

#2

Noah Burks

Wisconsin · 2021

61%
#3

Tyrus Wheat

Mississippi State · 2021

61%
#4

Jesiah Pierre

Texas Tech · 2022

60%
#5

Ezekiel Noa

Boise State · 2022

All-Mountain West
60%

Matches Jamon on

TFL rate
Weight
Class year

Differs from Jamon on

Height (lower)
Sack rate (higher)

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Sam Burton's senior season at Marshall (2023).

Sam Burton

76%match

Marshall · 2023

#2

Jamil Muhammad

USC · 2023

75%
#3

Ben Florentine

Wyoming · 2025

74%
#4

Jaylen Swain

Jacksonville State · 2023

74%
#5

Soane Toia

San José State · 2023

All-Mountain West
73%

Matches Sam on

TFL rate
Weight
Tackle volume

Differs from Sam on

PD rate (higher)
Sack rate (lower)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Derek Mason

Pass share

61.3%

495 pass / 313 run

Plays / game

67.3

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

8.6%

373 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Pass-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025

2 coaches
2021
Rick Stockstill
Middle Tennessee
2023
Rick Stockstill
Middle Tennessee
2025
Derek Mason
Middle Tennessee
era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Rick Stockstill → Derek Mason. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownCharlotte, NC
Height6'0"
Weight248 lb
Class4
PositionLB
Jersey11

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Middle Tennessee LB4 #15388 #15554 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Conference USA
2023 Middle Tennessee LB4 #12122 #12244 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Conference USA
2022 Oregon LB4 #9863 #9352 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Pac-12
2021 Oregon LB4 #7161 #6952 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Pac-12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Middle Tennessee Conference USA LB 4 No. 11 | 6-0 | 248 lb | Charlotte, NC
2024 Middle Tennessee Conference USA LB 4 No. 11 | 6-0 | 248 lb | Charlotte, NC
2023 Middle Tennessee Conference USA LB 4 No. 11 | 6-0 | 248 lb | Charlotte, NC
2022 Oregon Pac-12 LB 4 No. 11 | 6-0 | 248 lb | Charlotte, NC
2021 Oregon Pac-12 LB 4 No. 11 | 6-0 | 248 lb | Charlotte, NC