CFB Zeitgeist Score
29
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by long catch at the 55th percentile.
Ayden Williams
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
252 REC YDS · 21 REC · 0 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to Mississippi State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Wide receiver · Mississippi State
Returning around him
- 42% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
- 2 Mississippi State players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -13 net (27 in / 40 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Mississippi State · Last season: 5-8 · Talent rank #24 · 2026 recruiting class #28
WR · MISSISSIPPI STATE · SEC
Ayden Williams
- 3
- #11
- 6-3 | 205 lb
- Ridgeland, MS
Heisman Heat
#2013
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2023–2025+215%
Up 215% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#21 in market ▼ from #18 · 6 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4-star | 0.9593 | No. 82 recruit | HighSchool | Ole Miss |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ole Miss -> Mississippi State | 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Ole Miss
Composite
0.9593
#82 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Ayden Williams
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Ayden Williams
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per reception
12.0
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #292 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 45th
Why it matters
#292 of 531 All FBS WRs at 12.0 yards per reception (21 catches).
Vs cohort
This player 12.0 (45th)
MODERATE · n=21 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving yards (total)#444 / 531
- Receiving TDs#476 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 9 vs Texas — 69 ypr
Result L 38-45
The week the volume broke through — put up 69 yds vs Texas.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 13g
252Rec yards
21Receptions
0Rec TDs
Per game
19.4Rec yards
2Receptions
0Rec TDs
Final
252Rec yards
21Receptions
0Rec TDs
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Ayden Williams's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Mississippi State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
21 64th
YDS
252 63rd
YPR
12.0 51st
TD
0 45th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 34-17@ Southern Miss | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 2 | W 24-20vs Arizona State | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 3 | W 63-0vs Alcorn State | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | 13 | |
| Wk 4 | W 38-10vs Northern Illinois | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wk 5 | L 34-41vs Tennessee | 1 | 49 | 49.0 | 0 | 49 | |
| Wk 6 | L 9-31@ Texas A&M | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 8 | L 21-23@ Florida | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wk 9 | L 38-45vs Texas | 4 | 69 | 17.3 | 0 | 33 | Season-high 69 yds |
| Wk 10 | W 38-35@ Arkansas | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wk 11 | L 21-41vs Georgia | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 12 | L 27-49@ Missouri | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 14 | L 19-38vs Ole Miss | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 7 | |
| Bowl | L 29-43vs Wake Forest | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 | 21 | |
| Total | 21 | 252 | 11.8 | 0 | 49 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Ole Miss11-2HC: Lane Kiffin · Run-leaning
2025Mississippi State5-8HC: Jeff Lebby · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mississippi State | 21 | 252 | 12.0 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | Ole Miss | 4 | 80 | 20.0 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 25 | 332 | 13.3 | 0 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 21 | #402/1110 | 64th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 252 | #407/1107 | 63rd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #615/1111 | 45th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 12.0 | #545/1106 | 51st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 9.0% | #533/1137 | 53rd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 49 | #283/1105 | 74th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 7.5% | #419/1137 | 63rd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 7.1% | #449/1137 | 61st pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 4.0% | #610/1137 | 46th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 3.6% | #717/1137 | 37th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 2.7% | #782/1137 | 31st pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 2.3% | #807/1137 | 29th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #391/1137 | 66th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home8g | 1.6 | 24.5 | 15.3 | 0.0 |
| Road5g | 1.6 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 1.2 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 0.0 |
| Losses8g | 1.9 | 26.0 | 14.8 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 1.6 | 21.3 | 15.5 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 1.7 | 17.2 | 7.5 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
29Below cohort
Concern: rec tds (6th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Ayden WilliamsMississippi StateJacquon GibsonMassachusetts· 63% simKevin Coleman Jr.Missouri· 60% simMichael Jackson IIIPurdue· 58% sim
Long catch
Yards / catch
Rec yards
Receptions
Rec TDs
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Possession Receiver
Reliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Hal Presley’s 2023 season.
Hal Presley
79%match
#2
Bryan Thompson
79%
#3
Austin Watkins
74%
#4
Kaden Prather
NFL Rd 7
78%
#5
Mark Walker
70%
Matches Hal on
Weight
Total EPA (college ability)
Yards / reception
Differs from Hal on
Recruiting rating (higher)
EPA / play (adj) (lower)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Moussa Barry's junior season at Western Kentucky (2025).
Moussa Barry
77%match
#2
Fabian Mccray
75%
#3
Javon Swinton
74%
#4
Shedrick Jackson
72%
#5
Hal Presley
70%
Matches Moussa on
Total EPA (college ability)
Height
Weight
Differs from Moussa on
Reception volume (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jeff Lebby
Pass share
41.8%
390 pass / 543 run
Plays / game
71.8
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
12.7%
308 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
2 coaches2023
Greg Knox
Mississippi State
2025era →
Jeff Lebby
Mississippi State
Coaching transition mid-career: Greg Knox → Jeff Lebby. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownRidgeland, MS
Height6'3"
Weight205 lb
Class3
PositionWR
Jersey11
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMississippi State
ConferenceSEC
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mississippi State | SEC | WR | 3 | No. 11 | 6-3 | 205 lb | Ridgeland, MS |
| 2024 | Ole Miss | SEC | WR | 3 | No. 11 | 6-3 | 205 lb | Ridgeland, MS |
| 2023 | Ole Miss | SEC | WR | 3 | No. 11 | 6-3 | 205 lb | Ridgeland, MS |