CFB Zeitgeist Score
40
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by solo tackles at the 69th percentile.
Armorion Smith
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
36 TACKLES · 0 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Michigan State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Defensive back · Michigan State
Returning around him
- 69% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 2 Michigan State players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -18 net (28 in / 46 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Michigan State · Last season: 4-8 · Talent rank #38 · 2026 recruiting class #57
DB · MICHIGAN STATE · BIG TEN
Armorion Smith
- 4
- #19
- 6-1 | 212 lb
- Detroit, MI
Heisman Heat
#12883
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP DB AWARD
Jim Thorpe
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#8 in market ▼ from #6 · 4 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-star | 0.8607 | No. 894 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8607
#894 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Armorion Smith
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Armorion Smith
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 11g
36Tackles
1.5Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
3Tackles
0.1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
43Tackles
1.8Tackles for loss
0Sacks
To hit 80-tackle season (currently 36): needs 22/game over remaining 2.
To hit 100-tackle season (currently 36): needs 32/game over remaining 2.
To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 3/game over remaining 2.
To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 5/game over remaining 2.
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Armorion Smith is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Michigan State's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 1.5 tackles for loss, and 1 interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Defensive contributor against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
36 79th
SOLO
22 80th
TFL
1.5 64th
SACK
0.0 65th
Coverage & Takeaways
PD
1 43rd
INT
1 65th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 23-6vs Western Michigan | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 2 | W 42-40vs Boston College | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | Season-high 8 tackles |
| Wk 3 | W 41-24vs Youngstown State | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | |
| Wk 4 | L 31-45@ USC | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 6 | L 27-38@ Nebraska | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 7 | L 13-38vs UCLA | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 8 | L 13-38@ Indiana | 6 | 5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 9 | L 20-31vs Michigan | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 10 | L 20-23@ Minnesota | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 12 | L 10-28vs Penn State | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 14 | W 38-28vs Maryland | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 36 | 22 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Cincinnati9-4HC: Luke Fickell · Balanced
2023Michigan State4-8HC: Mel Tucker · Balanced
2025Michigan State4-8HC: Jonathan Smith · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan State | 36 | 22 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | -- |
| 2023 | Michigan State | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Cincinnati | 15 | 13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 53 | 37 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3 | 2 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 36 | #1060/4942 | 79th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 1.5 | #1771/4972 | 64th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 0.0 | #1762/4972 | 65th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Interceptions | 1 | #308/869 | 65th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Pass breakups | 1 | #1241/2184 | 43rd pct | Coveragevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 22 | #902/4584 | 80th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Fumbles recovered | 1 | #103/736 | 86th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/773 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Road4g | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins4g | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Losses7g | 3.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 3.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the DB cohort
40Mid-pack
Concern: qb hurries (22nd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · DB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Armorion SmithMichigan StateTyler MartinMassachusetts· 83% simTahj Ra-ElPurdue· 75% simJonJon VaughnsUCLA· 72% sim
Solo tackles
Tackles
Passes defended
Forced fumbles
Tackles for loss
Interceptions
Sacks
QB hurries
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Hybrid Nickel
Moves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB.
S
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Udoka Ezeani’s 2025 season.
Udoka Ezeani
87%match
All-Conference USA
#2
Austin Brown
84%
#3
Max DiDomenico
83%
#4
Ayden Hector
83%
#5
Robert Spears-Jennings
NFL Rd 7
83%
Matches Udoka on
Class year
Height
PD rate
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Shaun Myers's senior season at Colorado (2025).
Shaun Myers
95%match
#2
Mordecai McDaniel
91%
#3
Zach Mowchan
91%
#4
Domani Jackson
All-SECNFL Rd 6
90%
#5
Calvin Pitcher
89%
Matches Shaun on
Class year
Height
PD rate
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jonathan Smith
Pass share
49.7%
378 pass / 382 run
Plays / game
63.3
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.2%
303 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
2 coaches2022
Mel Tucker
Michigan State
2023
Mel Tucker
Michigan State
2025era →
Jonathan Smith
Michigan State
Coaching transition mid-career: Mel Tucker → Jonathan Smith. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownDetroit, MI
Height6'1"
Weight212 lb
Class4
PositionDB
Jersey19
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMichigan State
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Michigan State | DB4 | #12883 | #12857 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2023 | Michigan State | DB4 | #13096 | #13249 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2022 | Cincinnati | DB4 | #9781 | #9538 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | American Athletic |
| 2021 | Cincinnati | DB4 | #4076 | #3651 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | American Athletic |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan State | Big Ten | DB | 4 | No. 19 | 6-1 | 212 lb | Detroit, MI |
| 2024 | Michigan State | Big Ten | DB | 4 | No. 19 | 6-1 | 212 lb | Detroit, MI |
| 2023 | Michigan State | Big Ten | DB | 4 | No. 19 | 6-1 | 212 lb | Detroit, MI |
| 2022 | Cincinnati | American Athletic | DB | 4 | No. 19 | 6-1 | 212 lb | Detroit, MI |
| 2021 | Cincinnati | American Athletic | DB | 4 | No. 19 | 6-1 | 212 lb | Detroit, MI |