CFB Zeitgeist Score
62
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 74th percentile.
Alex VanSumeren
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
50 TACKLES · 1.5 SACKS
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to USC
2025Michigan State
2026USC
DL · MICHIGAN STATE · BIG TEN
Alex VanSumeren
- 3
- #91
- 6-3 | 295 lb
- Bay City, MI
Heisman Heat
#12342
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP DEFENSE AWARD
Nagurski
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
Michigan State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4-star | 0.9207 | No. 200 recruit | HighSchool | Michigan State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Michigan State -> USC | 3-star | 0.8900 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Michigan State
Composite
0.9207
#200 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Alex VanSumeren
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Alex VanSumeren
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 12g
50Tackles
2Tackles for loss
1.5Sacks
Per game
4Tackles
0.2Tackles for loss
0.1Sacks
Projected (13g)
54Tackles
2.2Tackles for loss
1.6Sacks
To hit 80-tackle season (currently 50): needs 30/game over remaining 1.
To hit 100-tackle season (currently 50): needs 50/game over remaining 1.
To hit 6-sack season (currently 1.5): needs 4.5/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10-sack season (currently 1.5): needs 8.5/game over remaining 1.
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Alex VanSumeren is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Michigan State's defense, with 1.5 sacks, 2.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-disruption defender | High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
50 88th
SOLO
16 71st
TFL
2.0 71st
SACK
1.5 85th
QBH
2 66th
Coverage & Takeaways
PD
1 43rd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 23-6vs Western Michigan | 5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 2 | W 42-40vs Boston College | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 3 | W 41-24vs Youngstown State | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 4 | L 31-45@ USC | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 6 | L 27-38@ Nebraska | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 7 | L 13-38vs UCLA | 6 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 8 | L 13-38@ Indiana | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 9 | L 20-31vs Michigan | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 10 | L 20-23@ Minnesota | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 12 | L 10-28vs Penn State | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | Season-high 8 tackles |
| Wk 13 | L 17-20@ Iowa | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 14 | W 38-28vs Maryland | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 50 | 16 | 2.0 | 1.5 | — | 1 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Michigan State5-7HC: Mel Tucker · Balanced
2025Michigan State4-8HC: Jonathan Smith · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan State | 50 | 16 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Michigan State | 11 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 61 | 18 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1 | -- | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 50 | #600/4942 | 88th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 2.0 | #1443/4972 | 71st pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 1.5 | #724/4972 | 85th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Pass breakups | 1 | #1241/2184 | 43rd pct | Coveragevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | QB hurries | 2 | #647/1878 | 66th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 16 | #1348/4584 | 71st pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 4.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Road5g | 3.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins4g | 3.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Losses8g | 4.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 3.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the DL cohort
62Solid starter
Production sits in the middle of the position cohort across the board.
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · DL · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Alex VanSumerenMichigan StateDaniel WingateMaryland· 74% simTJ DotteryOle Miss· 74% simTreylin PayneTexas State· 74% sim
Tackles
Sacks
QB hurries
Solo tackles
Passes defended
Tackles for loss
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Two-Gap Base
Stout at the point of attack; controls his gap and stacks blocks.
IDL
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Ty Hamilton’s 2022 season.
Ty Hamilton
92%match
NFL Rd 5
#2
Darius Johnson
92%
#3
Ricky Barber
90%
#4
Demerick Morris
90%
#5
Darius Johnson
89%
Matches Ty on
TFL rate
Weight
Height
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Ethan Saunders's junior season at California (2022).
Ethan Saunders
90%match
#2
Braden Marceau-Olayinka
86%
#3
Joshua Tarango
86%
#4
Caden Haws
85%
#5
C.J. Mims
84%
Matches Ethan on
Class year
Height
Weight
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jonathan Smith
Pass share
49.7%
378 pass / 382 run
Plays / game
63.3
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.2%
303 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
2 coaches2022
Mel Tucker
Michigan State
2025era →
Jonathan Smith
Michigan State
Coaching transition mid-career: Mel Tucker → Jonathan Smith. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownBay City, MI
Height6'3"
Weight295 lb
Class3
PositionDL
Jersey91
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMichigan State
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Michigan State | DL3 | #12342 | #12391 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2023 | Michigan State | DL3 | #13789 | #13811 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2022 | Michigan State | DL3 | #12649 | #12735 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big Ten |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan State | Big Ten | DL | 3 | No. 91 | 6-3 | 295 lb | Bay City, MI |
| 2024 | Michigan State | Big Ten | DL | 3 | No. 91 | 6-3 | 295 lb | Bay City, MI |
| 2023 | Michigan State | Big Ten | DL | 3 | No. 91 | 6-3 | 295 lb | Bay City, MI |
| 2022 | Michigan State | Big Ten | DL | 3 | No. 91 | 6-3 | 295 lb | Bay City, MI |