CFB Zeitgeist Score
45
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by tackles for loss at the 63rd percentile.
AJ McCarty
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
21 TACKLES · 0 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Texas Tech for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Defensive back · Texas Tech
Returning around him
- 59% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 9 Texas Tech players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: +0 net (21 in / 21 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Texas Tech · Last season: 12-2 (AP #4) · Talent rank #29 · 2026 recruiting class #48
DB · TEXAS TECH · BIG 12
AJ McCarty
- 4
- #1
- 6-0 | 195 lb
- Brownwood, TX
Heisman Heat
#12636
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP DB AWARD
Jim Thorpe
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 1 · 2-deepR03 · Backup
Backup. On the two-deep, pushing for snaps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3-star | 0.8515 | No. 1163 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8515
#1163 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on AJ McCarty
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about AJ McCarty
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 8g
21Tackles
3Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
3Tackles
0.4Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
34Tackles
4.9Tackles for loss
0Sacks
To hit 80-tackle season (currently 21): needs 11.8/game over remaining 5.
To hit 100-tackle season (currently 21): needs 15.8/game over remaining 5.
To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 1.2/game over remaining 5.
To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 2/game over remaining 5.
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
AJ McCarty is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Texas Tech's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 3.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Defensive contributor against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
21 61st
SOLO
14 67th
TFL
3.0 80th
SACK
0.0 65th
QBH
1 44th
Coverage & Takeaways
PD
1 43rd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 8 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 67-7vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 2 | W 62-14vs Kent State | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | Season-high 4 tackles |
| Wk 3 | W 45-14vs Oregon State | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 6 | W 35-11@ Houston | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 7 | W 42-17vs Kansas | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 9 | W 42-0vs Oklahoma State | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 12 | W 48-9vs UCF | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 14 | W 49-0@ West Virginia | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 21 | 14 | 3.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021Baylor11-2HC: Dave Aranda · Run-heavy
2022Baylor6-7HC: Dave Aranda · Run-leaning
2025Texas Tech12-2HC: Joey McGuire · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Texas Tech | 21 | 14 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Baylor | 34 | 28 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 1 | -- |
| 2021 | Baylor | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 58 | 45 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 5 | 1 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 21 | #1929/4942 | 61st pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 3.0 | #1006/4972 | 80th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 0.0 | #1762/4972 | 65th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Pass breakups | 1 | #1241/2184 | 43rd pct | Coveragevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | QB hurries | 1 | #1051/1878 | 44th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 14 | #1520/4584 | 67th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 8 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Road2g | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins8g | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Weeks 8+3g | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the DB cohort
45Mid-pack
Concern: sacks (23rd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · DB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
AJ McCartyTexas TechTyler MartinMassachusetts· 66% simBryce LlewellynEastern Michigan· 62% simTy BenefieldBoise State· 62% sim
Tackles for loss
QB hurries
Passes defended
Solo tackles
Tackles
Sacks
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Hybrid Nickel
Moves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB.
S
His 2025 production profile sits closest to AJ Williams’s 2023 season.
AJ Williams
89%match
#2
Damon Miller
88%
#3
Teagan Wilk
88%
#4
Quinn Whitlock
87%
#5
Myles Slusher
87%
Matches AJ on
Height
PD rate
Tackle volume
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Bryson Shaw's graduate season at USC (2024).
Bryson Shaw
97%match
#2
Ayden Hector
89%
#3
Jadarius Green-McKnight
87%
#4
Kenneth Robinson
85%
#5
Sidney Williams
81%
Matches Bryson on
Class year
Height
PD rate
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Joey McGuire
Pass share
47.6%
484 pass / 532 run
Plays / game
72.6
14 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.5%
336 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
2 coaches2021
Matt Wells
Texas Tech
2022era →
Joey McGuire
Texas Tech
2025
Joey McGuire
Texas Tech
Coaching transition mid-career: Matt Wells → Joey McGuire. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownBrownwood, TX
Height6'0"
Weight195 lb
Class4
PositionDB
Jersey1
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamTexas Tech
ConferenceBig 12
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Texas Tech | DB4 | #12636 | #12466 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2023 | Texas Tech | DB4 | #11731 | #11552 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2022 | Baylor | DB4 | #9796 | #9974 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2021 | Baylor | DB4 | #7405 | #7146 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big 12 |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | DB | 4 | No. 1 | 6-0 | 195 lb | Brownwood, TX |
| 2024 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | DB | 4 | No. 1 | 6-0 | 195 lb | Brownwood, TX |
| 2023 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | DB | 4 | No. 1 | 6-0 | 195 lb | Brownwood, TX |
| 2022 | Baylor | Big 12 | DB | 4 | No. 1 | 6-0 | 195 lb | Brownwood, TX |
| 2021 | Baylor | Big 12 | DB | 4 | No. 1 | 6-0 | 195 lb | Brownwood, TX |