CFB Zeitgeist Score
62
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 63rd percentile.
AJ Edwards
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
41 TACKLES · 1 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Sam Houston for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Defensive back · Sam Houston
Returning around him
- 90% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
- Transfer portal: +5 net (20 in / 15 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Sam Houston · Last season: 2-10 · Talent rank #123 · 2026 recruiting class #122
DB · SAM HOUSTON · CONFERENCE USA
AJ Edwards
- 4
- 5-11 | 185 lb
- Madison, MS
Heisman Heat
#12602
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP DB AWARD
Jim Thorpe
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 1 · 2-deepR02 · Deep reserve
Deep reserve. In the program, working up the two-deep.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8315 | No. 91 recruit | JUCO | Texas State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Texas State
Composite
0.8315
#91 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on AJ Edwards
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about AJ Edwards
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 11g
41Tackles
3Tackles for loss
1Sacks
Per game
4Tackles
0.3Tackles for loss
0.1Sacks
Projected (13g)
48Tackles
3.5Tackles for loss
1.2Sacks
To hit 80-tackle season (currently 41): needs 19.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 100-tackle season (currently 41): needs 29.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 6-sack season (currently 1): needs 2.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 10-sack season (currently 1): needs 4.5/game over remaining 2.
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
AJ Edwards is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Sam Houston's defense, with 1.0 sacks, 3.0 tackles for loss, and 1 interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Coverage splash | High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
41 82nd
SOLO
29 88th
TFL
3.0 80th
SACK
1.0 82nd
QBH
1 44th
Coverage & Takeaways
PD
4 84th
INT
1 65th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 24-41@ Western Kentucky | 8 | 7 | 2.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | Season-high 8 tackles |
| Wk 1 | L 21-38vs UNLV | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | Season-high 8 tackles |
| Wk 2 | L 20-37@ Hawai'i | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 2 | |
| Wk 4 | L 0-55@ Texas | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 6 | L 10-37@ New Mexico State | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 8 | L 17-35vs UTEP | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 10 | L 14-55@ Louisiana Tech | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wk 11 | W 21-17@ Oregon State | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 12 | W 26-23vs Delaware | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 13 | L 17-31@ Middle Tennessee | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 14 | L 16-56vs Florida International | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 41 | 29 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 4 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Texas State4-8HC: Jake Spavital · Balanced
2023Texas State8-5HC: G.J. Kinne · Run-leaning
2025Sam Houston2-10HC: Phil Longo · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Sam Houston | 41 | 29 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 4 | 1 | -- |
| 2023 | Texas State | 37 | 22 | 3.5 | 2.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Texas State | 24 | 18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5 | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 102 | 69 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 9 | 1 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 41 | #872/4942 | 82nd pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 3.0 | #1006/4972 | 80th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 1.0 | #872/4972 | 82nd pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Interceptions | 1 | #308/869 | 65th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Pass breakups | 4 | #340/2184 | 84th pct | Coveragevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | QB hurries | 1 | #1051/1878 | 44th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 29 | #559/4584 | 88th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | INT return avg | 28.0 | #113/578 | 81st pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | INT return yards | 28 | #232/578 | 60th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home4g | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Road7g | 4.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins2g | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Losses9g | 4.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 4.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 3.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the DB cohort
62Solid starter
Elite: passes defended (85th). Strength: solo tackles (80th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · DB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
AJ EdwardsSam HoustonKeaton ThomasBaylor· 83% simTJ DotteryOle Miss· 82% simAndon ThomasArmy· 81% sim
Passes defended
Solo tackles
Tackles
Sacks
Tackles for loss
QB hurries
Interceptions
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Hybrid Nickel
Moves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB.
S
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Gregory Rubin’s 2022 season.
Gregory Rubin
87%match
#2
Jayden Williams
83%
#3
Rolliann Sturkey
83%
#4
Greg Brooks Jr.
84%
#5
Jaydin Young
82%
Matches Gregory on
Tackle volume
PD rate
Height
Differs from Gregory on
Class year (higher)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Sage Ryan's senior season at LSU (2024).
Sage Ryan
92%match
#2
Nickendre Stiger
89%
#3
Jaden Davis
NFL Rd 7
87%
#4
Thomas Harper
86%
#5
Teldrick Ross
All-Conference USA
86%
Matches Sage on
Class year
Height
PD rate
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Phil Longo
Pass share
51.3%
388 pass / 368 run
Plays / game
63.0
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.1%
324 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
2 coaches2022
—
Sam Houston
2023era →
K.C. Keeler
Sam Houston
2025era →
Phil Longo
Sam Houston
Coaching transition mid-career: K.C. Keeler → Phil Longo. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownMadison, MS
Height5'11"
Weight185 lb
Class4
PositionDB
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamSam Houston
ConferenceConference USA
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Texas State | DB4 | #12602 | #12441 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Sun Belt |
| 2023 | Texas State | DB4 | #13174 | #12986 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Sun Belt |
| 2022 | Texas State | DB4 | #11647 | #11810 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Sun Belt |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Sam Houston | Conference USA | DB | 4 | 5-11 | 185 lb | Madison, MS |
| 2024 | Texas State | Sun Belt | DB | 4 | 5-11 | 185 lb | Madison, MS |
| 2023 | Texas State | Sun Belt | DB | 4 | 5-11 | 185 lb | Madison, MS |
| 2022 | Texas State | Sun Belt | DB | 4 | 5-11 | 185 lb | Madison, MS |