SWAC CONFERENCE · 2025 SEASON BASELINE · 2026 OUTLOOK
Southern
Rank #245
Team Mood Card — Offseason Mode
Southern fan conversation is quiet right now.
The Mood Card lights up during the season, when live fan, national, and rival chatter clears the publish gate. In the offseason we hold the frame open rather than print fake precision. Live signal returns once weekly conversation volume rebuilds.
Cohort Signal
Not enough fan conversation has cleared this week's publish threshold yet (we wait for ≥30 weighted posts before showing a number). How we set the bar ›
Fanbase Archetype
How this fanbase sorts in the Fan Intelligence taxonomy (N° 04 on the Hub).
Fanbase Archetype
HBCU Standard
Primary: 95% confidence
Cultural institution first, football program second.
SIGNATURE PHRASE
“The Classic is the real season.”
MODIFIERS
· Entrenched
5-Season Migration
Performance Narrative
Season Rating Journey
One line tells the story. Hover or tap any marker to see the exact game and how many power points it moved the rating. Larger markers mean bigger swings.
Rating rose
Rating fell
Little movement
Ring shows opponent level
Result
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Power Swing
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Rating Path
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Week 5 · vs Jackson State
Week 14 · vs Grambling
Week 7 · @ Bethune-Cookman
Betting Lens
Market context is a second read on the season: how often this team rewarded believers, disappointed them, or played into totals differently than expected.
Week 12 vs Texas Southern
Cover by +1.50 against a closing line of +6.5.
Week 7 vs Bethune-Cookman
No cover by -30.00. These are the losses bettors remember.
Week 9 vs Florida A&M
Over versus 48.5 by +29.50 points.
Efficiency Dashboard
Opponent-adjusted efficiency cards organized as a premium team dashboard.
Offense
42nd pct
Defense
29th pct
Adjusted values: +0.02 offense, +0.08 defense
Sample: 11 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
31st pct
Defense
61st pct
Adjusted values: -0.05 offense, -0.10 defense
Sample: 11 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
50th pct
Defense
43rd pct
Adjusted values: +0.31 offense, -0.31 defense
Sample: 11 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
0th pct
Defense
0th pct
Adjusted values: +0.00 offense, +0.00 defense
Sample: 0 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
0th pct
Defense
0th pct
Adjusted values: +0.00 offense, +0.00 defense
Sample: 0 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Offense
25th pct
Defense
36th pct
Adjusted values: +0.01 offense, -0.07 defense
Sample: 11 opponent-adjusted games in the current build.
Why The Model Has Them Here
A team page should explain the ranking, not just print it.
Power +5.8
Currently +5.8 versus the all-level average team on a neutral field. Defensive Efficiency currently grades around the 61st percentile.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
Resume 14
Body of work: best signal beat Grambling 28-27. Closest call lost to Jackson State 13-38. 14th percentile season.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
1-3 over the last 4 (L10 L11 L12 W14)
Last four games: 1-3 over the last 4 (L10 L11 L12 W14). Power is 49 points ahead of resume through the most recent season — the underlying strength rating outpaces what the body of work says.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
2025 Season
Biggest slice of the season so far: Regular Season at 2-10. Even if a bowl or playoff game lands in early 2026, it still belongs to this season page.
Open the compare board or matchup studio to pressure-test this profile against the teams around it.
Placement Context
This is where the team sits inside the all-level board, its own subdivision, and its own conference ecosystem.
Overall Board#245
Inside FCS#109 of 129
Inside SWAC#11 of 12
Power+5.8pts vs avg NCAA team
Resume1414th percentile season
Cross-Level NeighborCharlotte
Use these shortcuts to jump from this team to the neighbors that best explain its place on the board, including the closest cross-level comparison.
Closest Neighbors
The quickest way to explain a ranking is often to show the teams immediately around it.
Overall Ahead
Power +0.0 | Resume +20
#244 Bryant
FCS | CAA
Overall Behind
Power -0.0 | Resume +0
#246 Fordham
FCS | Patriot
FCS Ahead
Power +0.0 | Resume +20
#244 Bryant
FCS | CAA
SWAC Ahead
Power +0.2 | Resume +7
#241 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
FCS | SWAC
Cross-Level Neighbor
Power +0.3 | Resume +2
#237 Charlotte
FBS | American Athletic
Historical Snapshot
Fans should be able to see the short version immediately: how big the loaded sample is, what this program's standard looks like, and where the current season sits inside that arc.
The number of fully modeled seasons currently attached to this program.
A recent multi-year closing-power average. This is the kind of anchor that should matter in preseason priors.
How the current season's closing power stacks up against the program's recent standard.
How far the current season finished below the strongest loaded team in program history.
The strongest closing power this program has posted in the loaded archive.
This is the program's best power season since 2024.
This is the program's best resume season since 2024.
The highest loaded all-level board finish currently attached to this program.
The strongest body-of-work season currently attached to this program in the loaded archive.
Where the current season sits inside this program's loaded history on the two main scales.
A cleaner fan-facing answer to the question: is this near the top of the program's arc or just another solid year?
The cleanest results season in the loaded archive, regardless of whether it was also the strongest by power.
Program Arc
Bars track win rate. The line tracks end-of-season power, so users can see whether the program is actually getting stronger or just stacking wins.
Bars: win rate
Line: public power vs average team
Season Phase Split
How this season breaks apart inside the same year-defined competitive cycle.
Regular Season 2-10 in 12 games
| Phase | Record | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | 2-10 | 12 |
Loaded History Signals
This is the fastest way to explain what the last few seasons say about the program, and why prior success should matter in the next preseason cycle.
2022 Season
Ended at power -1.0, record 7-5, and final loaded-board rank #144.
2022 Season
Resume 48 / 100 with 7 wins and a 58% win rate.
-0.7 power
From 2024 to 2025, the program moved from -5.3 to -6.0.
8-5
The cleanest loaded season by results came in 2024, with a margin of -31.
Impact Cards
A card-based alternate view of the same rating swings for fans who want the season game by game.
Week 14
Regular Season
vs Grambling
Result
Win
Pregame
-10.22
Power
+0.94
Resume
+0.10
Postgame
-9.28
Week 12
Regular Season
vs Texas Southern
Result
Loss
Pregame
-10.87
Power
+0.30
Resume
+0.05
Postgame
-10.57
Week 11
Regular Season
@ Alcorn State
Result
Loss
Pregame
-11.16
Power
+0.29
Resume
+0.02
Postgame
-10.87
Week 10
Regular Season
@ Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Result
Loss
Pregame
-10.99
Power
-0.16
Resume
-0.03
Postgame
-11.16
Week 9
Regular Season
vs Florida A&M
Result
Loss
Pregame
-10.75
Power
-0.25
Resume
+0.04
Postgame
-10.99
Week 8
Regular Season
vs Prairie View A&M
Result
Loss
Pregame
-10.01
Power
-0.74
Resume
-0.03
Postgame
-10.75
Week 7
Regular Season
@ Bethune-Cookman
Result
Loss
Pregame
-9.16
Power
-0.85
Resume
-0.11
Postgame
-10.01
Week 5
Regular Season
vs Jackson State
Result
Loss
Pregame
-8.59
Power
-0.95
Resume
-0.07
Postgame
-9.54
Week 3
Regular Season
@ Fresno State
Result
Loss
Pregame
-8.99
Power
+0.14
Resume
+0.17
Postgame
-8.85
Week 2
Regular Season
vs Alabama State
Result
Loss
Pregame
-8.79
Power
-0.21
Resume
-0.45
Postgame
-8.99
Week 1
Regular Season
@ Mississippi Valley State
Result
Win
Pregame
-9.36
Power
+0.57
Resume
+0.00
Postgame
-8.79
Week 1
Regular Season
vs North Carolina Central
Result
Loss
Pregame
-9.36
Power
+0.57
Resume
+0.00
Postgame
-8.79
2025 Season Schedule And Rating Movement
Every result, every phase, and how the rating changed because of it.
| Week | Date | Game | Phase | Result | Close | ATS | Total | Pregame | Power Change | Resume Change | Postgame |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23, 2025 | vs North Carolina Central FCS | Regular Season | L 14-31 | +10.5 | No cover | 47.5 | Under | -9.36 | +0.57 | +0.00 | -8.79 |
| 1 | Aug 30, 2025 | @ Mississippi Valley State FCS | Regular Season | W 34-29 | -12.5 | No cover | 49.5 | Over | -9.36 | +0.57 | +0.00 | -8.79 |
| 2 | Sep 6, 2025 | vs Alabama State FCS | Regular Season | L 7-30 | +6.5 | No cover | 56.5 | Under | -8.79 | -0.21 | -0.45 | -8.99 |
| 3 | Sep 14, 2025 | @ Fresno State FBS | Regular Season | L 7-56 | +38.5 | No cover | 51.0 | Over | -8.99 | +0.14 | +0.17 | -8.85 |
| 5 | Sep 27, 2025 | vs Jackson State FCS | Regular Season | L 13-38 | +9.5 | No cover | 50.5 | Over | -8.59 | -0.95 | -0.07 | -9.54 |
| 7 | Oct 11, 2025 | @ Bethune-Cookman FCS | Regular Season | L 14-45 | +1.0 | No cover | 53.5 | Over | -9.16 | -0.85 | -0.11 | -10.01 |
| 8 | Oct 18, 2025 | vs Prairie View A&M FCS | Regular Season | L 3-24 | +8.5 | No cover | 46.5 | Under | -10.01 | -0.74 | -0.03 | -10.75 |
| 9 | Oct 25, 2025 | vs Florida A&M FCS | Regular Season | L 35-43 | +3.0 | No cover | 48.5 | Over | -10.75 | -0.25 | +0.04 | -10.99 |
| 10 | Nov 1, 2025 | @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff FCS | Regular Season | L 21-40 | -1.0 | No cover | 52.5 | Over | -10.99 | -0.16 | -0.03 | -11.16 |
| 11 | Nov 8, 2025 | @ Alcorn State FCS | Regular Season | L 17-35 | +11.0 | No cover | 47.5 | Over | -11.16 | +0.29 | +0.02 | -10.87 |
| 12 | Nov 15, 2025 | vs Texas Southern FCS | Regular Season | L 30-35 | +6.5 | Cover | 52.5 | Over | -10.87 | +0.30 | +0.05 | -10.57 |
| 14 | Nov 29, 2025 | vs Grambling FCS | Regular Season | W 28-27 | -13.5 | No cover | 48.5 | Over | -10.22 | +0.94 | +0.10 | -9.28 |
Year-By-Year Results
The competitive story by season, kept cleanly tied to the year each season began.
| Season | Lens | Record | Final Rank | End Power | End Resume | Games | Points For | Points Against | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | CurrentThis season anchors the current board. | 2-10 | #265 | -6.0 | 2 | 12 | 223 | 433 | -210 |
| 2024 | Best recordCleanest win-loss season in the loaded archive. | 8-5 | #259 | -5.3 | 20 | 13 | 272 | 303 | -31 |
| 2023 | In rangeA season that landed inside the normal historical band. | 6-5 | #205 | -2.7 | 43 | 11 | 255 | 223 | +32 |
| 2022 | Peak powerStrongest loaded closing power for the program. | 7-5 | #144 | -1.0 | 48 | 12 | 380 | 261 | +119 |
| 2021 | Down yearFinished meaningfully below the program's recent standard. | 4-7 | #241 | -5.1 | 23 | 11 | 290 | 339 | -49 |