cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / James Ferguson-Reynolds /Oregon

James Ferguson-Reynolds

P · Oregon · Sr · #46

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

1 TACKLES · 0 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Oregon for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Oregon for 2026

Updated May 27

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Punter · Oregon

Returning around him

  • 19% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
  • 7 Oregon players drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: -17 net (13 in / 30 out)

2026 Award watch

  • Ray Guy

Oregon · Last season: 13-2 (AP #5) · Talent rank #5 · 2026 recruiting class #5

P · OREGON · BIG TEN

James Ferguson-Reynolds

  • 4
  • #46
  • 6-2 | 196 lb
  • Geelong, VIC

CFB Zeitgeist P Score

Awaiting

Heisman Heat

#15047

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP P AWARD

Ray Guy

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career arc · Season-by-season Standing

3 seasons on the ladder

Peak: R09 All-Conference HM / 2nd team · 2023

2022

Boise State · P

2023

Boise State · P

R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team

Recognized

2025

Oregon · P

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#2090 national
CFB
College
2 teams
2022–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionP
Class4
Jersey46
Measurements6-2 | 196 lb
HometownGeelong, VIC
Primary teamOregon

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 2090 recruit
Composite rating 0.8033 HighSchool
Signed with Boise State 2022
Origin ProKick Australia Australia, AUST, USA
Class Profile Context
2022 3-star | 0.8033 No. 2090 recruit | HighSchool | Boise State

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Oregon 2025
Transfer stars 2-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate May 1, 2025
Season Move Context
2025 Boise State -> Oregon 2-star | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#15047Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#14461Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Boise State

Composite

0.8033

#2090 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on James Ferguson-Reynolds

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about James Ferguson-Reynolds

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Scenario Explorer

Available for players with a qualifying signature metric (passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks, etc.). The slider projects how a season finishes if the current pace holds.

Why the honors trail matters

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. James Ferguson-Reynolds already has 2 loaded recognition items, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.

Current place #15047 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Transfer path 1 portal move

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

OTHER season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Scrimmage yards 21 Combined rushing and receiving
Touchdowns 0 Across offense and returns
Usage -- Role share still loading
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

This player profile will sharpen as more advanced context is loaded.

Balanced profile

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppPUNTYDSAVGLONGIN20Note
Wk 2W 69-3vs Oklahoma State27336.5371
Wk 3W 34-14@ Northwestern27738.5392
Wk 4W 41-7vs Oregon State28743.5511
Wk 5W 30-24@ Penn State27336.5431
Wk 7L 20-30vs Indiana420150.3532
Wk 9W 21-7vs Wisconsin520641.2483
Wk 11W 18-16@ Iowa416140.3521
Wk 12W 42-13vs Minnesota210050.0581
Wk 13W 42-27vs USC311438.0451
Wk 14W 26-14@ Washington313043.3481
BowlW 51-34vs James Madison28040.0401
BowlW 23-0@ Texas Tech27236.0391
BowlL 22-56@ Indiana29648.0501
Total35147041.75817
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Boise State10-4HC: Andy Avalos · Run-leaning
2023Boise State8-6HC: Spencer Danielson · Run-heavy
2025Oregon13-2HC: Dan Lanning · Run-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Passing Passing yards 11 #9/15 47th pct Volumevs FBS peers
Passing Yards / attempt 11.0 #7/15 60th pct Efficiencyvs FBS peers
Passing Attempts 1 #4/25 88th pct Volumevs FBS peers
Passing Completion % 100.0% #1/15 100th pct Efficiencyvs FBS peers
Passing Completions 1 #3/15 87th pct Volumevs FBS peers
Passing Interceptions 0 #1/25 100th pct Turnoversvs FBS peers
Passing Pass TD 0 #2/25 96th pct Scoringvs FBS peers
Rushing Rushing LONG 21 #5/29 86th pct Metricvs FBS peers
Rushing Rushing yards 21 #7/53 89th pct Volumevs FBS peers
Rushing Yards / carry 21.0 #4/49 94th pct Efficiencyvs FBS peers
Rushing Carries 1 #9/50 84th pct Volumevs FBS peers
Rushing Rush TD 0 #5/54 93rd pct Scoringvs FBS peers
Defense Solo tackles 1 #63/282 78th pct Volumevs FBS peers
Defense Total tackles 1 #109/388 72nd pct Volumevs FBS peers
Defense Sacks 0.0 #15/390 96th pct Disruptionvs FBS peers
Defense TFL 0.0 #20/390 95th pct Disruptionvs FBS peers
Punting Punting YDS 1,470 #119/179 34th pct Metricvs FBS peers
Punting Punting LONG 58 #109/179 40th pct Metricvs FBS peers
Punting Punting YPP 42 #116/179 36th pct Metricvs FBS peers
Punting Punting NO 35 #117/179 35th pct Metricvs FBS peers
Punting Punting IN 20 17 #53/166 69th pct Metricvs FBS peers
Punting Punting TB 3 #55/142 62nd pct Metricvs FBS peers

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Ray Guy award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

YDS/gTD/gYPAINT/g
Home7g
Road6g1.80.011.00.0

Win vs Loss

YDS/gTD/gYPAINT/g
Wins11g1.00.011.00.0
Losses2g

First half vs Second half

YDS/gTD/gYPAINT/g
Weeks 1-78g1.40.011.00.0
Weeks 8+5g

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Box-score Savant card waits for a season-stat snapshot above the cohort floor. Returns once enough box-score volume lands.

Advanced Savant · P · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator returns once this player clears the Savant metric floor (4+ scored bars).
DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Dan Lanning

Pass share

44.9%

436 pass / 534 run

Plays / game

64.7

15 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

4.8%

250 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

1 coach
2022
Dan Lanning
Oregon
2023
Dan Lanning
Oregon
2025
Dan Lanning
Oregon

Played his entire career under Dan Lanning.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownGeelong, VIC
Height6'2"
Weight196 lb
Class4
PositionP
Jersey46

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

2 entries
🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2024)

All-Mountain West

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

All-Conference

2 all-conference honors

Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
2024 All-Mountain West all_conference Boise State | Mountain West P
2023 All-Mountain West all_conference Boise State | Mountain West P

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Boise State P4 #15047 #14461 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Mountain West
2023 Boise State P4 #15539 #15244 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Mountain West
2022 Boise State P4 #14818 #14473 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Mountain West

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Oregon Big Ten P 4 No. 46 | 6-2 | 196 lb | Geelong, VIC
2024 Boise State Mountain West P 4 No. 46 | 6-2 | 196 lb | Geelong, VIC
2023 Boise State Mountain West P 4 No. 46 | 6-2 | 196 lb | Geelong, VIC
2022 Boise State Mountain West P 4 No. 46 | 6-2 | 196 lb | Geelong, VIC