cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Caleb Williams /USC
NOW IN NFLChicago — drafted 2024, No. 1 overall

Where He Ended Up · NFL

ChicagoEntering 3rd NFL season

#1Rd 1 · Pick 1
ChicagoEntering 3rd NFL season

SDE · USC · PAC-12

Caleb Williams

CFB Zeitgeist SDE Score

Awaiting

Heisman Heat

Awaiting

Not on the live Heisman board this week.

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

TOP POSITION AWARD

Position award

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 5 · Apex

R16 · POTY / Heisman winner

Position-of-the-Year / Heisman winner. The trophy is in the case.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★
#2722 national
CFB
College
No college data
NFL
NFL Draft
R1 · #1
Chicago · 2024

Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds

#21 in market ▼ from #18 · 6 books

+35002.8% implied▼ lengthened from +3000

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionSDE
Class--
Jersey--
Measurements--
Hometown--
Primary teamUSC

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 2-star No. 2722 recruit
Composite rating 0.7956 HighSchool
Signed with -- 2019
Origin Warren San Antonio, TX, USA
Class Profile Context
2019 2-star | 0.7956 No. 2722 recruit | HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2022 Season

Where he sits right now, where the season forecast points, and whether the candidacy is actually trophy-live.

Current nowcast--Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast--Where the full season sim points
Win probability--Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability--Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability--Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish#1Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★☆☆☆

to —

Composite

0.7956

#2722 national

NFL Draft

2024 · Rd 1, Pick 1

#1 overall · Chicago

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Caleb Williams

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Caleb Williams

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Scenario Explorer

Available for players with a qualifying signature metric (passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, sacks, etc.). The slider projects how a season finishes if the current pace holds.

Why the honors trail matters

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Caleb Williams already has 13 loaded recognition items, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.

Current place -- -- win | -- finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Honors spine 13 honors loaded

2025 Season

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

OTHER season snapshot

2025 season snapshot

2025 season snapshotData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Scrimmage yards 0 Combined rushing and receiving
Touchdowns 0 Across offense and returns
Usage -- Role share still loading
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

This player profile will sharpen as more advanced context is loaded.

Balanced profile

Game Log

Week-by-week box

No per-game rows for this season yet — the table fills in as box scores arrive.

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
The stat explorer fills in once this player has measured season-level metrics on the board.

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits

Per-game splits

Splits fill in once box scores from at least three games land for this season.

Box-score Savant card waits for a season-stat snapshot above the cohort floor. Returns once enough box-score volume lands.

Advanced Savant · SDE · 2022

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator returns once this player clears the Savant metric floor (4+ scored bars).
DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast

Team context · Awaiting roster + coordinator data

Supporting Cast surfaces the OL pass-protection grade, top three receivers, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator that shape this player's environment. Populates when team-context ingestion lands.

Coaching Lineage

USC

Head coach

Lincoln Riley

Year 4 · from Oklahoma

HC calls it

Offensive coordinator

Lincoln Riley

Year 4 · Air Raid RPO

Lincoln Riley → Mike Leach (Air Raid at OU) → Hal Mumme (Air Raid originator)

74 plays/gm60% pass rate16% explosivefast tempo

Defensive coordinator

D'Anton Lynn

Year 2 · 4-2-5 multiple

Riley runs his own offense; the QB position's production ceiling in any given season is the Air Raid ceiling.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

PositionSDE

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

13 entries
🏆

ALL-AMERICA · CONSENSUS

Consensus AA (2022)

9 first-team selectors

🏅

POSITION AWARDS

Heisman, Walter Camp, Maxwell

2022 season

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Heisman

Heisman Trophy winner

Won the award in 2022. This should always live at the front of the card's trophy case.

Finalist

1 finalist season

Invited into the official finalist tier in 2022. That belongs in the trophy case, not buried in a table.

All-America

10 All-America selections

National selector recognition is one of the strongest non-Heisman signals on a player card and should sit near the top of the showcase.

Votes

Heisman votes in 1 season

Even lower-volume award recognition is worth preserving because it marks seasons where a player entered the national conversation.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
2022 Walter Camp position_award USC | Walter Camp winner | QB
2022 Maxwell position_award USC | Maxwell winner | QB
2022 Heisman position_award USC | Heisman winner | QB
2022 All-America (USA Today) all_america USC | USA Today first | QB
2022 All-America (The Athletic) all_america USC | The Athletic first | QB
2022 All-America (CBS) all_america USC | CBS first | QB
2022 All-America (ESPN) all_america USC | ESPN first | QB
2022 All-America (WCFF) all_america USC | WCFF first | QB
2022 All-America (SN) all_america USC | SN first | QB
2022 All-America (FWAA) all_america USC | FWAA first | QB
2022 All-America (AFCA) all_america USC | AFCA first | QB
2022 All-America (AP) all_america USC | AP first | QB
2022 All-America (Consensus) all_america USC | Consensus --

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2022 USC SDE-- -- -- -- -- Winner -- Pac-12 | Won the trophy

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
Roster history fills in once this player has measured player-season rows on the board.