Lincoln Riley — USC, November 2021

Riley left Norman for Los Angeles in November 2021 after a Big-12 era that was ending; USC made him the highest-paid coach in the conference and gave him a complete portal-and-roster reset. Year one — 11-3, Caleb Williams' Heisman, the closest thing to a USC title contention since the Pete Carroll era — vindicated the bet. The 2023 and 2024 seasons (8-5, 7-6) cooled the conversation; the Big Ten move's early returns are still being graded. The hire's structural impact — USC and UCLA leaving the Pac-12, the conference's subsequent dissolution — is the long-tail outcome that places it second.